STORM2K

Getting a little concerned that 91L/Bill won't clear out cleanly. If a piece of vorticity ends up getting left behind somewhere across the state, I wouldn't be surprised to see some impressive nocturnal core rainfalls.

gatorcane wrote:Posted this in the 91L discussion but not good with all the rain coming towards Texas:

Is that the Brazos River separating all the counties one or two counties over west of I-45? Looks like that river basin will get some major flooding from this event.

Flash flood Watches are up for just about everyone in the eastern half of the state. The 500mb flow highway has been set with the weakness over Texas. This is not just invest 91L (Bill?) but also and ULL parallel across the state. We can already see it line up rain in the western portions of the state creating rain well prior to the main system, some areas seeing several inches before the passage of the tropical system. As tropical moisture surges northward it goes downhill.

Evening Folks,

I am very concerned about what may unfold the next 48-72hrs. You can see "BILL" on the long range radar out of Corpus Christi.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM BILL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022015
1000 PM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED AS TROPICAL STORM BILL FORMS...
...EXPECTED TO BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.1N 94.2W
ABOUT 160 MI...260 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM SSE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the coast of Texas
from Baffin Bay to High Island.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Bill was
located near latitude 27.1 North, longitude 94.2 West. Bill is
moving toward the northwest near 12 mph (19 km/h) and this general
motion is expected to continue tonight and Tuesday. On the forecast
track the center of Bill is expected to make landfall in the warning
area along the Texas coast Tuesday morning and move inland over
south-central Texas Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some slight strengthening is possible before landfall. Weakening is
forecast after the center moves inland on Tuesday, and Bill is
expected to weaken to a tropical depression Tuesday night.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL: Bill is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4
to 8 inches over eastern Texas and eastern Oklahoma and 2 to 4
inches over western Louisiana and western Arkansas, with possible
isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches in eastern Texas.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
coast within the warning area tonight.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will
cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising
waters. The water could reach the following heights above ground if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Upper Texas coast...2 to 4 feet
Western Louisiana coast...1 to 2 feet

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the right of the landfall location. Surge-related flooding depends
on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can
vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your
area, please see products issued by your local National Weather
Service forecast office.

If the path of Bill verifies per the NHC track, we're going to be looking at a possible nocturnal core rain event tomorrow night in or just to the northeast of the Austin area. Not good, not good at all.

Portastorm wrote:If the path of Bill verifies per the NHC track, we're going to be looking at a possible nocturnal core rain event tomorrow night in or just to the northeast of the Austin area. Not good, not good at all.

It's really not. And I am really really not looking forward to doing an ABIA pickup tomorrow evening. Kinda nervous, I usually stay home when I know there will be bad weather. Hoping it's just rain, no low water crossings between our house and the airport.....

0z CMC has definitely slowed the storm down as it moves inland so far compared to the 12z run

Shoshana wrote:

Portastorm wrote:If the path of Bill verifies per the NHC track, we're going to be looking at a possible nocturnal core rain event tomorrow night in or just to the northeast of the Austin area. Not good, not good at all.

It's really not. And I am really really not looking forward to doing an ABIA pickup tomorrow evening. Kinda nervous, I usually stay home when I know there will be bad weather. Hoping it's just rain, no low water crossings between our house and the airport.....

Well the track has shifted slightly to the right once inland so I would think the greatest threat for a nocturnal core rain event tonight will be east/northeast of the Austin area. Of course any slight deviation in track will make a huge difference. And I have seen plenty of times where tropical storms don't always follow the predicted paths once inland. I wouldn't expect wild changes in course but a difference of 50 miles here or there is huge regarding impacts, especially if we end up further on the west side of the circulation center.

Bill's track is better defined today as it's going to make landfall around Matagorda Bay. Heading NW then slowly N. Lots of banding across the state later today and the core will tighten up (rain wise) later tonight and if you are near the center (either side of I-35) you will get a lot of rain east or west. The rain bomb looks to pretty much parallel that interstate. The region between I-35 to I-45 has been the modelling bullseye for awhile now.

from twitter per Ryan Maue

Too bad for the LCRA system. I would have really liked to see Travis and Buchanan topped off.

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:Too bad for the LCRA system. I would have really liked to see Travis and Buchanan topped off.

If that shift moves towards the west, Travis would likely fill up to 681 feet ASL (flood pool), and LCRA would begin intermittent flood gate operations, depending on what happens upstream and downstream. I am guessing Buchanan has to fill up 1,020 feet ASL before any flood gate operations happen. Buchanan is currently at 997.05 ASL (aways to go at 23 feet) and Travis is at 669.51 ASL (closer at about 10 feet away). Flooding aside, I agree, would be nice to top them off at least before the heart of Summer. On a side note, I noticed inflows into Buchanan have increased over the past day.

But we are in much better shape than early May, and El Nino's effects in Fall should help I would think.

http://www.lcra.org/water/dams-and-lake ... d-dam.aspx

http://www.lcra.org/water/dams-and-lake ... n-dam.aspx

http://floodstatus.lcra.org/

weatherdude1108 wrote:But we are in much better shape than early May, and El Nino's effects in Fall should help I would think.

You are correct! Fall is the second wet season and during El Nino's with strong +PDO, particularly true for Central Texas like in the 90s, is very wet even into winter. Summer is the dry season so any rainfall from this system we should be grateful for it. Even though we are still posting in the spring thread really JJA is summer count.

Well the first tropical shower decided to pass me when I was out walking my dog.

So far it's partly cloudy and breezy here in northern San Antonio.

WPC has placed parts of southeast Texas, central Texas to about Waco for high risk of excessive rainfall. Moderate risk extends up to about DFW. Though this is no surprise following the core of Bill.

Did they move both the Rangers and the Astros for they're Wednesday and Thursday Games? For the Rangers they were playing the Dodgers at home yesterday and are at home today, but then they go to La for tomorrow and Thursday. I've never seen that before. The Astros are doing the same with the Rockies.

TheProfessor wrote:Did they move both the Rangers and the Astros for they're Wednesday and Thursday Games? For the Rangers they were playing the Dodgers at home yesterday and are at home today, but then they go to La for tomorrow and Thursday. I've never seen that before. The Astros are doing the same with the Rockies.

Nah. It was already scheduled like that. We all found it strange when it was announced, but it might work out perfectly! Maybe the baseball gods really do control the weather?

The storm is moving West now, could that increase DFWs tornado threat in the future?