Texas Spring-2015

[weatherdude1108]

About an inch from this morning's activity and still raining.

[Portastorm]

About an inch from this morning's activity and still raining.

Got close to an inch and a half here at the Portastorm Weather Center in not-so-scenic (today) southwestern Travis County.

[aggiecutter]

[wxman57]

I think that the models are initializing the center too far south, maybe by 150 miles. That would shift the heavier rain threat east a bit to between Houston and the mid LA coast, possibly.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Havent had to use the links in forever but what do the steering currents look like? The HWRF is showing a 992 max wind at 52 winds while its still a tad off the coast but the next plot is onshore.

Havent looked at the shear yet but we have seen these storms spin up very very quickly. Must keep an eye on it.

[aggiecutter]

[aggiecutter]

[JDawg512]

About an inch from this morning's activity and still raining.

Got close to an inch and a half here at the Portastorm Weather Center in not-so-scenic (today) southwestern Travis County.

I recorded 2.21 inches with this mornings rain at my house. It really came down hard. The elongated storm moved right overhead through south central and central Travis County.

[TheProfessor]

It's looking like areas along and East of 35 are going to see at least 1.00-2.50 of rain based on current projected track right now.

[Ntxw]

To the Ryan Maue tweet something like this has happened before. Being that the system likely won't be a hurricane, the fact that it is weaker with good dynamics from the atmosphere it is possible. In 2007 tropical storm Erin did this over Oklahoma.

[weatherdude1108]

About an inch from this morning's activity and still raining.

Got close to an inch and a half here at the Portastorm Weather Center in not-so-scenic (today) southwestern Travis County.

I recorded 2.21 inches with this mornings rain at my house. It really came down hard. The elongated storm moved right overhead through south central and central Travis County.

We got a couple heavy tropical downpours around the 4pm hour this afternoon. Another 1.2 inches. With this morning's rain, I am at 2.4 inches today.

[1900hurricane]

I'd really be paying attention if I lived in the eastern half of the EWX area. After the several inches of rain many areas saw today, the slight westward edging of 91L's model consensus is somewhat concerning.

[Ntxw]

I'd really be paying attention if I lived in the eastern half of the EWX area. After the several inches of rain many areas saw today, the slight westward edging of 91L's model consensus is somewhat concerning.

Everyone in the eastern half of the state needs to. As many have had historic May rainfalls, June is going to follow it up with some big totals.

[TheProfessor]

Latest CMC takes the storm a bit further west and dumps about 10 inches of rain along the I-35 corridor

[Portastorm]

I'd really be paying attention if I lived in the eastern half of the EWX area. After the several inches of rain many areas saw today, the slight westward edging of 91L's model consensus is somewhat concerning.

Everyone in the eastern half of the state needs to. As many have had historic May rainfalls, June is going to follow it up with some big totals.

Pretty much anyone along or east of the I-35 corridor is now " in play" best on the west model trends overnight. Very serious if not catastrophic flooding appears likely by Wednesday.

[weatherdude1108]

I'd really be paying attention if I lived in the eastern half of the EWX area. After the several inches of rain many areas saw today, the slight westward edging of 91L's model consensus is somewhat concerning.

Everyone in the eastern half of the state needs to. As many have had historic May rainfalls, June is going to follow it up with some big totals.

Pretty much anyone along or east of the I-35 corridor is now " in play" best on the west model trends overnight. Very serious if not catastrophic flooding appears likely by Wednesday.

Of course the threat is not over the Lake Buchanan watershed, which is 16 feet below average and about 25 feet below its conservation pool. It still has a flood "cushion." Travis has a flood cushion also, but not as much as early May.

http://hydromet.lcra.org/lakevolume/systemprofile.aspx

[Ntxw]

It's interesting it's pressures continues to lower over land on some guidance. That HWRF Ryan Maue posted yesterday doesn't look so far-fetched today. Looking at the flow the area between I-35 and I-45 looks like the bullseye (at this time). I'd go ahead if I were the NWS and put flood watches up and down the region between the two.

[TheProfessor]

It looks like the 12z models are projecting the same path a 6z, maybe a slightly more westward shift.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Just had our first tropical shower come through and oh my word, went from drizzle to straight DOWNPOUR in an instant.

Also, who else saw the projected PW at 4.2 inches. I have never seen a 3 inch PW. Thats insane. I think Maue posted it yesterday

[weatherdude1108]

This is a "stay tuned" kind of update.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 151614
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1114 AM CDT MON JUN 15 2015

.UPDATE...BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF
OF MEXICO CONTINUES TRACKING TO THE NORTHWEST. EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE REGION WITH AMPLE MOISTURE IN PLACE...AND DE-STABILIZATION
THROUGH THE DAY WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
ZONES. IN ADDITION...WHAT APPEARS TO BE A REMNANT MCV ACROSS WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS MAY ENHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
EDWARDS PLATEAU/NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT POP
FORECAST FOR TODAY WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MENTION ACROSS THE
EAST LOOK GOOD AND NO UPDATES PLANNED AT THIS TIME TO TODAYS
FORECAST. MORE COMING IN THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE ON THE HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WITH THE TROPICAL SYSTEM.