Texas Spring-2015

[weatherdude1108]

Will Carlos give us moisture also?

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
313 PM CDT THU JUN 11 2015

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
THE WEATHER PATTERN SLOWLY BECOMES INCREASINGLY ACTIVE THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LOW OVER THE
WESTERN GULF SLOWLY WEAKENS AND THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR WEST
MOVES LITTLE. WE EXPECT A CONTINUED INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO LEADING TO MAINLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. IT WILL BE TOUGH TO PINPOINT WHICH DAY WE CAN EXPECT
THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL AS MUCH WILL DEPEND ON WHAT OCCURRED THE
DAY BEFORE. WITH NO CLEAR LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARY AND A SERIES OF WEAK
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...WE/LL LIKELY NEED TO MONITOR AND
ADJUST THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES
THAT SET UP ACROSS THE REGION. AS MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST...WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW...WE/LL MAINTAIN THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAINFALL DURING THE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME...ALTHOUGH
THIS WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED IN SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS.
BEYOND WEDNESDAY...WILL FAVOR THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE APPROACH...WHICH
SHOWS A STRENGTHENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND SOUTHERN U.S. THIS WOULD LIKELY LEAD TO A DECREASE IN RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. IN ADDITION...WE/LL NEED TO
MONITOR THE TRACK OF TROPICAL SYSTEM CARLOS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC
AS SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM COULD EVENTUALLY MAKE
IT INTO TEXAS.

&&

[TarrantWx]

Did it actually hit 100 in DFW yesterday? According to Accuweather, yesterday's high WAS 100. Loving it!

Maybe that was the Heat Index or some reading west of Ft. Worth. It did not hit 100 at either DFW or Love Field yesterday.

Edit: Ft Worth Meachem Airport reported 100. I don't know why, but that airport always seems to have the hottest readings.

I've noticed that Meacham always has the highest reading too. Not only in the summer but the winter as well. Watching temperature readings during winter weather events Meacham would show 34 while surrounding stations are at 32. I think there's a calibration error with their thermometer. I don't trust their observations.

[TheProfessor]

If the 0z CMC verified, there would be serious flooding issues from Corpus Christi all the way up the 35 corridor. The only thing is that the storm could be a phantom storm or another pacific storm, I've seen them do that before.

[weatherdude1108]

Looks like we have the potential for a multi-day opportunity for rain around here.


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
646 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 400 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...
A MID-LEVEL N-S TROUGH AXIS OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND A DIGGING
MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SWRN US SHOULD RESULT IN A
GRADUAL DESTABILIZING PATTERN OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TX OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

ISOLATED STREAMER SHOWERS ARE FORMING OVER THE COASTAL BEND AND THE
UPPER TX COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
OCCUR EAST OF I-37 AND SOUTH OF I-10 EARLY TODAY...BUT DEW POINT
VALUES AROUND 2 DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WOULD
SUGGEST A BETTER CHANCE OF ISOLATED CONVECTION AND SLIGHT
ENHANCEMENT OF SEA-BREEZE CONVECTION MAINLY EAST OF I-35 LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING. FOR TODAY...WILL TAKE A
SPLIT BETWEEN THE WETTER NAM AND THE DRIER GFS...AS THE NAM HAS
SOME SUPPORT FROM THE HIGH-RES MODELS IN THE EARLY GOING. THE GFS
IS FAVORED FOR THE WESTERN COUNTIES WITH MOSTLY STABLE AIR
TODAY...BUT A POSSIBLE SMALL CLUSTER OF STORMS POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU EARLY THIS EVENING. A SIMILAR STRATEGY
WAS USED ON HIGH TEMPS...WITH SOME COOLER VALUES FOR EASTERN
COUNTIES WHERE MOISTURE IS MORE LIKELY TO GENERATE A CB. A FEW
STORMS OVER THE EDWARDS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...BUT EXPECT
THE GENERAL TREND TO BE DOWN BY THE TIME THE CELLS MOVE INTO VAL
VERDE COUNTY.

MID-LEVEL RIDGING OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN
A SLOW DESTABILIZING TREND INTO THE WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS STABLE SATURDAY WHILE AREAS TO THE NORTH AND EAST
HAVE MORE DIURNAL ACTIVITY.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
BY SUNDAY...MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS SHOWN IN MODEL
CONSENSUS TO DEPRESS THE NRN MEXICO RIDGE AND OPEN UP ALL AREAS
OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TO THUNDERSTORM CHANCES AND REINFORCE MILD
MID-JUNE TEMPERATURES. THIS PATTERN IS REFLECTED IN MODEL
CONSENSUS TO LAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

MODELS DO NOT SHOW A SIGNIFICANT FLOW OF MOISTURE TAPPING INTO
CARLOS OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC...AS CARLOS IS FORECAST TO BECOME
A HURRICANE BY THEN. WILL NEED TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS CLOSELY OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS...AS A POSSIBLE INFLUX OF THIS MOISTURE COULD
MAKE FOR A MORE LIKELY HEAVY RAINFALL SCENARIO. FOR NOW...MODELS
HAVE YET TO CONVERGE ON A SOLUTION THAT WOULD SUGGEST A NEED FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN A BRIEF MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THE HWO. EVEN WITHOUT THE
INFLUENCE OF CARLOS...A LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT COULD SUPPORT SLOW
MOVING STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES. THE
LATEST RUNS OF THE CANADIAN AND DGEX SHOW TWO GOOD EXAMPLES OF
WHAT COULD EVOLVE IN A PERSISTENT LIGHT SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN MID
JUNE. THE GFS/ECMWF CONSENSUS SHOWS A MORE CONSERVATIVE PATTERN
THAT SHIFTS TO INCREASING STABILITY BY FRIDAY. BOTH OF THESE FAVORED
SOLUTIONS SHOW A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD SHIFT OF THE POLAR JET HELPS
BUILD RIDGING ALOFT FROM THE WEST LATE NEXT WEEK.

[gboudx]

We're going down to the JW Marriott in San Antonio next week for vacation. I don't mind some rain, but don't let it be a washout.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well hello GFS, Shows a system approaching hard into the Gulf in a few days, making landfall at 120 hours. Landfall around Corpus

[fendie]

both the GFS and GEM/CMC are spinning something up and taking it toward Corpus Christi.

0z GEM/CMC


12z GFS

[aggiecutter]

[Ntxw]

Whether or not we get a named system, the idea to grasp is a slug of tropical moisture will come up with mid to high level moisture streaming from Carlos. This would make sense given the southeast ridge setting shop and Texas will sit on the western periphery, being a lane for moisture to travel through. Very good signal for heavy rain.

[weatherdude1108]

FXUS64 KEWX 121950
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
250 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL
WEAKNESS TO THE WEST MOVES CLOSER TO THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
THE BETTER MOISTURE GRADUALLY EXPANDS WEST SUNDAY INTO EVENTUALLY
INTO THE I-35 CORRIDOR ON MONDAY. SO POPS ARE GRADUALLY STEPPED UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ZONES BY ABOUT 10 PERCENT EACH DAY.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE MENTIONED FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY IN THE HWO.

BEYOND MONDAY THE FORECAST FOR MIDWEEK BECOMES CHALLENGING. THE
FORECAST LOOKS TO BE DEPENDENT ON A DEEP POOL OF MOISTURE AND
TROPICAL WAVE THAT ORIGINATES IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND
MOVES AROUND THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST...TOWARD THE WEAKNESS ACROSS TEXAS. GLOBAL
MODELS BRING THIS WAVE TOWARD THE LOWER AND MIDDLE TEXAS COAST
EARLY TUESDAY. IT IS TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE SPECIFICS IN THE
TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE DISTURBANCE...PLEASE MONITOR NHC
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK OVER THE WEEKEND FOR FURTHER UPDATES.
BUT GIVEN AT LEAST AN OPEN WAVE AND SIGNIFICANT TAP OF TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO SOUTH TEXAS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...POPS WERE RAISED
ACROSS THE CWA...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-10. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE ADDED INTO THE HWO FOR MID WEEK. STAY TUNED.

[TheProfessor]

18 GFS has the storm further north, it takes a path similar to what Ike took when it moved inland.

[Ntxw]

Just a little off the immediate topic, again if you haven't been following our El Nino is quite the beauty. It is on path to one of those (should it continue to strengthen) once per decade traditional powerful El Nino. On another hand it is already the rare (more like once per every 20 years) multiyear Nino. We have not seen such an El Nino since the big one in 1997.

[aggiecutter]

[aggiecutter]

[aggiecutter]

Freebie from Portastorm's mentor, JB:

http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-sum ... ne-13-2015

[Ntxw]

The models have underplayed the rainfall potential that is looming over Texas. 91L and Carlos are coming together for a perfect concoction of flooding. A similar situation may be Manuel and Ingred a few years ago.

[weatherdude1108]

We need rain again, but not another Wimberly situation. Full Lakes Buchanan and Travis are all I want.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
709 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2015/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT)...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EAST OF I-35 WILL DIMINISH TOWARDS SUNSET. RE-DEVELOPMENT
OF STREAMER SHOWERS ACROSS THE EAST ARE FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS
OVERNIGHT. ACROSS WEST TEXAS...CONVECTION IS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL FLOW IS WEAKER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY...
HOWEVER DESPITE THIS A ROBUST 35-45KT 850MB LLJ IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHICH MAY SUPPORT STORMS MAINTAINING
STRENGTH INTO THE FAR WESTERN CWA LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. A
FEW HI RESOLUTION MODELS AS WELL AS NAM12 AND GFS INDICATE THIS
OCCURRING. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH SMALL HAIL
AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WEST OF A ROCKSPRINGS TO BRACKETVILLE LINE
TONIGHT...BUT THE BIGGER THREAT MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WEST
OF THIS LINE...SHOULD THE COMPLEX MAINTAIN ITSELF INTO THE FAR
WESTERN CWA.

SUNDAY SHOULD BE A REPEAT OF TODAY...WITH PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE
COVERAGE ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY EAST. A FEW
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD CONTAIN HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...THE FORECAST MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON A POTENTIAL
TROPICAL SYSTEM. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE STEERED
NORTHWEST SUNDAY AND MONDAY INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...AROUND THE
SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST U.S. AND BROAD
TROUGH ACROSS TEXAS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
SUPPORT SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO AS UPPER LEVEL WIND SHEAR RELAXES...AND AS OF SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS CURRENTLY GIVING THE
SYSTEM A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE.

GLOBAL MODELS ARE GENERALLY CONVERGED ON A LANDFALL SOMEWHERE
ALONG THE MID OR UPPER TEXAS COAST TUESDAY MORNING. HOW ORGANIZED
THE SYSTEM BECOMES AND THE EXACT TRACK INTO AND THROUGH TEXAS WILL
DICTATE POPS AND QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A MORE
ORGANIZED SYSTEM INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST WILL LEAVE THE EWX CWA
ON THE DRY SUBSIDENT SIDE. A WEAKER SYSTEM INTO THE MID TEXAS
COAST WILL POTENTIALLY BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF THE
AREA TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. USING A BLENDED APPROACH FOR NOW OF
ECMWF/GFS AS WELL AS WPC/NHC COORDINATION WE HAVE SHOWN A GRADIENT
OF LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND EASTERN CWA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY TO SLIGHT CHANCE ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...WITH LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL MENTIONED CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN ZONES.
AS THE FORECAST AND TRENDS ON THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOME CLEARER SUNDAY AND MONDAY POPS AND QPF AND RESULTING
IMPACTS WILL LIKELY BE REFINED ACROSS THE EWX CWA...SO STAY
CLOSELY TUNED.

[Ntxw]

This is very much like the triple crown of rainfall threat. Somebody is going to get 15-20+ inches where the ULL, Carlos, and 91L moisture converges.

[TexasF6]

HERE WE GO AGAIN..................


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
520 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COMAL COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
HAYS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
WESTERN TRAVIS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 915 AM CDT

* AT 517 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE WARNED AREA...WHICH INCLUDES ALL OF HAYS
COUNTY AND A GOOD PORTION OF COMAL AND TRAVIS COUNTIES. UP TO TWO
INCHES OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS NOTED
FROM BELOW CANYON DAM TO AROUND WIMBERLEY. FLASH FLOODING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHORTLY.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
AUSTIN...NEW BRAUNFELS...SAN MARCOS...WIMBERLEY...DRIPPING
SPRINGS...TANGLEWOOD FOREST...CANYON LAKE DAM...SCHERTZ...KYLE...
LAKEWAY...BUDA...LAGO VISTA...SELMA...CANYON LAKE...BULVERDE...BEE
CAVE...GARDEN RIDGE...WEST LAKE HILLS...THE HILLS AND WOODCREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS IN LOW LIGHT SITUATIONS WHEN THE FLOODING
THREAT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KNOW WHERE YOU ARE
RELATIVE TO STREAMS...RIVERS...OR CREEKS WHICH CAN BECOME KILLERS IN
HEAVY RAINS. CAMPERS AND HIKERS SHOULD AVOID STREAMS OR CREEKS.

[weatherdude1108]

Woke up to heavy rain outside. Checked out the EWX discussion.

818
FXUS64 KEWX 140915
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
415 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

MAIN HIGHLIGHTS ARE THE ONGOING CONVECTION THIS MORNING THAT HAS
LEAD TO SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING AND EXPECTED ADDITIONAL
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.

A SEMI-ORGANIZED TSTORM LINE CURRENTLY EXTENTS FROM KERR ARCING BACK
SOUTHWEST INTO MAVERICK COUNTY ALONG WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS
CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. THE SOUTHERN FLANK OF THIS LINE IS
ORIENTED MORE EAST TO WEST AND HAS A SLOWER FORWARD MOTION ALLOWING
FOR HIGHER RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
HOURLY RAINFALL RATES NEAR 1-2" ARE OCCURRING OVER UVALDE...ZAVALA
AND MAVERICK THAT WILL CONTINUE TO COMPOUND ANY LOCAL FLOODING
ISSUES. THIS LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH 5-6AM
WITH OVERALL RAINFALL RATES DECREASING. THE SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG
AND EAST OF US HWY 281 WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS AS THE LOW-LVL JET OF 35-40 KT CONTINUES PER KEWX
VAD WIND PROFILE.

BY 6-9AM...FEEL THE LINE OUT WEST WILL HAVE MOSTLY DISSIPATED BUT
WILL LEAVE AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TO BE A LATER FOCUSING TRIGGER FOR
MORE ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO AT THIS TIME...THE SCT ACTIVITY
THAT IS NOW ON GOING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AND REGENERATE INTO THE
AFTERNOON AS HEATING TAKES PLACE. WITH LITTLE TO NO CIN...SHALLOW
SHOWERS SHOULD BE QUITE NUMEROUS THIS AFTN. ONCE OUTFLOWS BEGIN TO
PROPAGATE LIKE YESTERDAY...FEEL THESE COLLISIONS AND THE POSSIBLE
LARGER OUTFLOW FROM THE MAIN LINE COULD AID IN PULSE STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOULD STAY SUB-SEVERE WITH PROGGED 2000 J/KG AND
WEAK SHEAR /20KT 0-6 KM/ BUT SOME WIND GUSTS OF 40-50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL COULD BE POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED FOR ALSO AND WILL BE MENTIONED IN THE HWO. ANOTHER MORE
POTENT ROUND OF TSTORMS SHOULD AGAIN FIRE OVER THE BIG BEND AND WEST
TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR IF
THE SOUTHERN FRINGE MAKES IT INTO VAL VERDE BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD BE
MORE LIMITED THAN CURRENT CONDITIONS THIS TIME TOMORROW.

FOR MONDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING IN THE MORNING
FOR EASTERN AREAS AS THE FIRST OUTER BANDS OF A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE INFLUENCE THE REGION. EXPECT ADDITIONAL SCATTERED
SHOWERS TO MOVE INLAND WITH GREATEST SHOWER FOCUS WEST OF US HWY 83
AND ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. OVERALL TOTALS THROUGH MONDAY
SHOULD REMAIN BETWEEN 1-2 INCHES IN LOCALIZED AREAS WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING LESS.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...

POTENTIALLY MODERATE TO HIGH IMPACTS FROM FLASH AND RIVER FLOODING
COULD BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST
OF I-35...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN COUNTIES AS A POSSIBLE TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE PASSES CLOSE TO THE REGION. RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD RANGE
FROM 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF 5-6 INCHES DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THIS WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK.

GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS ALL AGREE ON THE DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK
TROPICAL SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF AND TOWARDS THE
TEXAS COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...IT IS NOT EXPECTED THAT
A STRONG CYCLONE GIVEN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND OVERALL
SHEAR SET-UP. THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVOLUTION BUT THE
OVERALL HAZARDS WILL BE DISCUSSED GIVEN THE MOST LIKELY POSSIBILITY.
THE OP GFS IS MORE WEST TOWARDS BAFFIN BAY WITH EC TOWARDS MATAGORDA
BAY AND NAM FARTHER WEST TOWARDS HOUSTON. GFS ENSEMBLE TRACKS FAVOR
MORE OF AN EC SOLUTION AND FEEL THIS IS THE BEST CONCENSUS AS IT
TRACKS INLAND OVER FAR EASTERN ZONES. THIS POSSIBLE TRACK WOULD
FAVOR HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. MOST GUIDANCE AGREES THAT HIGHEST TOTALS WILL LIKELY
FALL EAST OF LAVACA/FAYETTE COUNTIES TOWARDS HOUSTON. HOWEVER, FAR
EAST ZONES WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST RISK FOR MULTIPLE PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN. WITH THE SURFACE LOW COMING ASHORE NEAR MID-DAY TUESDAY...THIS
WILL BE THE BEGINNING WINDOW FOR THESE HEAVY RAIN PERIODS TO OCCUR.
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE TIME FRAME WITH
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF IMPACT WEATHER FOR EASTERN ZONES AS HEAVY RAIN
COULD SET UP OVER THIS AREA. WIDESPREAD 2-4 INCHES WITH LOCALIZED 6
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THESE VALUES WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON THE
SURFACE LOW TRACK AND ANY DEVIATION LEFT/WEST COULD RESULT IN MORE
RAINFALL. GLOBAL MODELS DO INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL (HIGHER THAN AMOUNTS
MENTIONED ABOVE) AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL JUST EAST OF OUR AREA AND
TRENDS WILL NEED TO MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE H5 PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO FEATURE A TROUGH WEAKNESS CENTERED
BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL HIGHS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK THAT WILL
ALLOW FOR DIURNAL ACTIVITY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. BY THE
WEEKEND...SLIGHTLY STRONGER RIDGING SHOULD SHIFT OVER THE REGION AND
REDUCE RAIN CHANCE TO ONLY 20-30% DURING THE AFTERNOON.