Texas Fall-2015

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS looking more like we have been expecting western trough is digging through the SW and a 1049mb high in South Central Canada on TDay.

[srainhoutx]

12Z GFS looking more like we have been expecting western trough is digging through the SW and a 1049mb high in South Central Canada on TDay.

Yes sir. That -EPO/+PNA regime is rearing its head. Look for volatility in the various guidance schemes over the next week or two. We also need to carefully watch the sub tropical jet off the Eastern Pacific for embedded disturbances riding across Mexico into Texas as well as Coastal trough/low development as the cold air arrives. While no two patterns or analogs are exactly the same, think back to early December 2009 when we had an noisy STJ and cold air in place across Texas to the Gulf Coast.

[Texas Snowman]

So, for those of us planning to suffer through some bad football in Austin on Thanksgiving night, what's the latest thinking?

As an ardent orangeblood, I expect bad football from the home team. And I expect a lot of offense from those Red Raiders. And I would agree with Ralph's Weather that right now it looks like seasonal temps and a chance of some light rain around. The Euro says no rain and the GFS say yes rain. Kickoff temps should be in the mid to upper 60s. And I expect Mrs. Portastorm to yell at me at least once for using non-Christian language when I see the Longhorns do their first stupid thing of the game.

Despite season tickets, we never make the Thanksgiving Day game since our daughter will be home for the big family gatherings. But somewhere along the way, I'll get a glance from Mrs. Texas Snowman that says everything without saying anything at all. Either during the Longhorns game, the Cowboys game or both!

Question: if Charlie takes the Miami job and departs for warmer environs, can we make it a package deal and send Wxman 57 to Miami too?

[Ralph's Weather]

12Z GFS looking more like we have been expecting western trough is digging through the SW and a 1049mb high in South Central Canada on TDay.

Yes sir. That -EPO/+PNA regime is rearing its head. Look for volatility in the various guidance schemes over the next week or two. We also need to carefully watch the sub tropical jet off the Eastern Pacific for embedded disturbances riding across Mexico into Texas as well as Coastal trough/low development as the cold air arrives. While no two patterns or analogs are exactly the same, think back to early December 2009 when we had an noisy STJ and cold air in place across Texas to the Gulf Coast.

It is going to be a very interesting week or so after Thanksgiving. Potential for post-frontal snow then we will turn our eyes to the SW to try to pick out what will come out of Mexico that the models will likely miss.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

While no two patterns or analogs are exactly the same, think back to early December 2009 when we had an noisy STJ and cold air in place across Texas to the Gulf Coast.

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Yep, we had a day full of snow in Houston which was a record setting early snowfall. 12z GFS is repeating that and wants the first snowfall in Nov for Houston.

[Ntxw]

Currently it is -20s/-30s widespread in Alaska. With a ridge (-EPO) forming that's likely the airmass that will get dislodged. Also HP will start to build very cold air in W Canada a few days from now.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like the 12z models shifted the low this weekend a bit further south, I hope that trend continues, might get to see some fun if so.

[srainhoutx]

The 12Z Euro suggests a 1050+mb Arctic High building across Western Canada as well as another deep Western trough and attending storm system dropping S from the Pacific NW with the Arctic boundary. The sub tropical jet is also very noisy with embedded disturbances headed NE towards Mexico and toward Texas with a SW flow aloft.

[Ralph's Weather]

Looks like the 12z models shifted the low this weekend a bit further south, I hope that trend continues, might get to see some fun if so.

Enjoy.

[Ralph's Weather]

The 12Z Euro suggests a 1050+mb Arctic High building across Western Canada as well as another deep Western trough and attending storm system dropping S from the Pacific NW with the Arctic boundary. The sub tropical jet is also very noisy with embedded disturbances headed NE towards Mexico and toward Texas with a SW flow aloft.

I love that set-up for potential unsettled winter weather. Add in a potential E Pac system adding a bit more juice to the STJ and we are in business with plenty of surface cold.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

So, for those of us planning to suffer through some bad football in Austin on Thanksgiving night, what's the latest thinking?

As an ardent orangeblood, I expect bad football from the home team. And I expect a lot of offense from those Red Raiders. And I would agree with Ralph's Weather that right now it looks like seasonal temps and a chance of some light rain around. The Euro says no rain and the GFS say yes rain. Kickoff temps should be in the mid to upper 60s. And I expect Mrs. Portastorm to yell at me at least once for using non-Christian language when I see the Longhorns do their first stupid thing of the game.

Agree with you football progs...though I'd say that our 'Horns have been a much better team at home this year, so there is a little hope. This is my first time to attend the Thanksgiving game since 1993 in College Station, and we know what else happened that day. I drove from Dallas to B-CS that day, though it wasn't bad once I was south of the I45/Trinity River bridge in South Dallas, but the drive from B-CS to Austin after the game that night was horrible - 100 miles of black ice that took over 4 hours to navigate. One of the worst nights of my life.

[Texas Snowman]

I remember that Thanksgiving Day very well. It was the second Thanksgiving Day after my wife and I were married.

I went duck hunting with a friend that morning it was raw, wet and cold that morning. By the time we left, ice was forming on the windshield.

I went home and the Mrs. and I went to Thanksgiving Day dinner at her grandmother's house in Sherman. By the time we left there, ice was forming on the trees in town and sleet was beginning to fall.

We made it home and watched as the sleet descended on Texas Stadium. And as Leon Lett gave Cowboys fans a game that they'll never forget.

I also remember a journey to my grandparent's house in Memphis, Tenn. back in the 1980s. I think we left mid-afternoon on that Wednesday when I got out of school. Nothing was falling in Denison when my dad turned the car east, but by the time we got to Paris, it was snowing like crazy.

By the time we made it to Texarkana that evening, it was nearly three inches deep. Heavy snow was pounding the I-30 corridor between Texarkana and Little Rock, where five inches fell. It was tense, white knuckle driving for my dad that took forever. But somewhere between Little Rock and Memphis, the snowfall finally slowed and eventually stopped. If I remember correctly, we saw only flurries the next morning at my grandparent's house.

[Ralph's Weather]

Dang 12Z GFS ensemble mean snow trend for N TX continues to get stronger for the weekend after TDay with a mean of 1-3". One individual member shows that storm producing over 30" over Fort Worth with 1/3 of Texas getting over a foot from SW TX through N TX. Other members also show huge totals and over half of the member showing significant snow. This is not just one run either recent ensemble runs have all been trending towards this.

[Texas Snowman]

I also remember another Thanksgiving Day in the late 1970s when my family still lived in Memphis, Tenn.

My aunt and uncle and cousins had moved to Pryor, Okla. earlier that year and we all went out to see them for Thanksgiving Day (1977 or 78, if I remember correctly).

The Thanksgiving Day holiday itself was chilly but dry. But a day or two later, a huge arctic front descended upon NE Oklahoma and a big ice/sleet storm followed.

My dad drove us back to Memphis on that Sunday. Off and on again as we drove eastbound on I-40, ice covered the highway, especially from Little Rock on towards Memphis.

It was one of the worst drives I ever remember being a part of. It took many slow, arduous hours of driving with plenty of tense moments and wrecks observed along the way.

I do love snow and ice, but it can make for some especially difficult and dangerous traveling for people trying to get home to see family.

[TheProfessor]

NWS has 40% of snow in my forecast!

[Ntxw]

Dang 12Z GFS ensemble mean snow trend for N TX continues to get stronger for the weekend after TDay with a mean of 1-3". One individual member shows that storm producing over 30" over Fort Worth with 1/3 of Texas getting over a foot from SW TX through N TX. Other members also show huge totals and over half of the member showing significant snow. This is not just one run either recent ensemble runs have all been trending towards this.

Euro control has fairly significant wintry precip sometime TG weekend along I-20

[Ntxw]

NWS has 40% of snow in my forecast!

Remember pictures! Freezing Drizzle capital of Texas needs encouragement!

[1900hurricane]

I'm not a particular cold weather fan (May is where it is at), but I do dig that screaming SW flow aloft. Hopefully that bowling ball of the east coast doesn't verify so we can get some real deep layer moisture return off the Caribbean again.

[TexasStorm]

Oh Lucy, time to wake up. You are needed in the Texas Fall Forum

[Ralph's Weather]

Oh Lucy, time to wake up. You are needed in the Texas Fall Forum

Yep, it is.

18Z GFS takes its time driving the Arctic air down, but it does make it just in time to meet a developing Gulf low by around 300H. Something fun is bound to happen with this but the details are very fuzzy. It also has Sunday and Monday freezes for NE TX, just Sunday for N TX.