Texas Fall 2018

[Ntxw]

Everyday feels like an eternity.... Why is it so hard to get snow down here

And yall had more snow than us last year

In any event, I am very confident this is the year. If it's March and no snow yet well...then I will be looking for rural property so I can actually use a home snowmaking machine next winter without risking an HOA fine. lol

Yeah if this winter doesnt produce I'll probably give up on Dallas snow lol

If this winter doesn't produce, something is fundamentally wrong! We haven't quite yet achieved enough ambient warmth for no snow as it still can get plenty cold. If that is the case then 2015-2016 Super El Nino strategically changed the fundamentals for snow!

Seriously if it doesn't snow in a weak-mod Nino in low solar, it will be time to move North.

[Ralph's Weather]

I see no reason to change our thinking as to a possible Southern Plains winter storm to kick off Dec. We just have to get rid of the +PNA which is a killer to anything fun in Texas. Looks like we will be moving to a -EPO/-PNA pattern which is good for snow in Texas. For us as long as the NAO is not extreme in either direction it doesn't affect us much. The AO is much more important as it controls how deep the cold air is.

[Ntxw]

I see no reason to change our thinking as to a possible Southern Plains winter storm to kick off Dec. We just have to get rid of the +PNA which is a killer to anything fun in Texas. Looks like we will be moving to a -EPO/-PNA pattern which is good for snow in Texas. For us as long as the NAO is not extreme in either direction it doesn't affect us much. The AO is much more important as it controls how deep the cold air is.

0z GFS has a huge trough carved with a lot of vorticity. The surface run is messy but it does show the inconsistencies of storms. We know there are some but the solutions have been all over different shortwaves. This run at 5h does resemble some of the Euro/Fv3 runs that looked interesting.

A storm should be digging down California here once the week is over. Then we watch where it goes and what kind of air is moving. And course, which piece of energy will be the dominant one?

[Brent]

I see no reason to change our thinking as to a possible Southern Plains winter storm to kick off Dec. We just have to get rid of the +PNA which is a killer to anything fun in Texas. Looks like we will be moving to a -EPO/-PNA pattern which is good for snow in Texas. For us as long as the NAO is not extreme in either direction it doesn't affect us much. The AO is much more important as it controls how deep the cold air is.

I hope you're right and I do remember the storm last December in Central TX not being well forecast until it got inside 2-3 days so there's definitely still reason to hope

another arctic blast at the end of the GFS... I mean sooner or later something has to happen??? Looks like any warmth would be short-lived like it has been

[Ralph's Weather]

I like what I am seeing on the ensembles for the Dec 3rd period. High heights over NW and SE Canada with low heights over the SW and Central US. Still tok far out to be concerned with surface depictions. We are still at 200+ hours out. Look for the models to begin showing some fun sporadically over the next few days. Hopefully the SW low can time things rught and eject just after the -EPO makes a cold air dump. Either way we should get much wetter by Dec as we make a.push towards the wettest year in many places topping 2015 which would be incredible.

[Haris]

5 years ago today

[Ntxw]

One week from today we will migrate over to the winter thread. 501 pages is the mark we have to beat this winter from 2013-2014.

[Brent]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/rxtMNk4/Screen-Shot-2018-11-24-at-10-53-44-PM.png [/url]


5 years ago today

wasn't that mostly a cold rain in the end

[TheProfessor]

Yep that was the storm that caused most of the metro to be caught off guard a couple of weeks later.

[hamburgerman7070]

I see no reason to change our thinking as to a possible Southern Plains winter storm to kick off Dec. We just have to get rid of the +PNA which is a killer to anything fun in Texas. Looks like we will be moving to a -EPO/-PNA pattern which is good for snow in Texas. For us as long as the NAO is not extreme in either direction it doesn't affect us much. The AO is much more important as it controls how deep the cold air is.

Ralph, i have heard about some typhoon that may recurve. Is that tied into the -epo or they both separate entities?

[Ntxw]

On a side note the cool and dry November has helped an explosion of colors from the trees. The reds to me this year is particularly vibrant.

[weatherdude1108]

On a side note the cool and dry November has helped an explosion of colors from the trees. The reds to me this year is particularly vibrant.

Oh yeah! I've noticed a lot of vibrant orange and reds in the trees over the past week in the San Antonio and Austin areas, especially with the brief warm up into the 70s.

[rwfromkansas]

Blizzard warning up north with 5+ at my parent’s house today. Already approaching 10 inches for the season, which bodes well for here in a month I think since that is half their average total. They have had a severe snow drought for many years in a row.

[gpsnowman]

To quote Jim Croce, "Like a north wind whistling down the sky, I've got a song" applies today. I think he had a day like today in mind when he wrote that lyric. The winds are howling.

[bubba hotep]

Hopefully it was an off run but the 00z Euro and EPS both trended a lot drier for Texas after 4 or 5 straight run of trending wetter lol

[northjaxpro]

Long , long range 12Z GFS this morning showing potential first decent Arctic High (1045 mb) moving south from Saschatchewan in 348 hours. This could be the first true sign of Old Man Winter emerging into the CONUS. Time will tell.

[Ntxw]

12z gfs has a blizzard in 7-10 days in Oklahoma. This is the same energy posted prior and could be the one. All models have a deep carving trof, some are dry, some are wet. Keep an eye on this intense system late weekend to early following week.

[hamburgerman7070]

12z gfs has a blizzard in 7-10 days in Oklahoma. This is the same energy posted prior and could be the one. All models have a deep carving trof, some are dry, some are wet. Keep an eye on this intense system late weekend to early following week.

Ntxw, i heard 12zeuro is another dry run. Its pretty cold east of the rockies. Any reason why its dry but cold? I wont bet against the Euro. I still think after mid December when will have our opportunity. I would think with a -epo and neutral pna and nao going slightly positive that wouldn't lead to a dry pattern , but we shall see

[TheProfessor]

I'm a bit jealous of the snow out west, but it does look like I will get some mood flakes tomorrow here if I don't get dry slotted on the back end. Might even get a surprise trace.

[rwfromkansas]

KC just had its first snow of at least 3 inches in five years.