***CURRENT WATCHES/WARNINGS/STORMS/REPORTS IN THE US***

[wx247]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0221
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0259 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LA

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 122059Z - 122300Z

AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR SEVERE WIND GUST REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH
SURFACE-BASED TSTMS OVER SRN LA FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LIMITED
OVERALL COVERAGE DOES NOT WARRANT A WW ATTM.

LATEST MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK CONFLUENCE ZONE/MOISTURE
DISCONTINUITY FROM CNTRL LA SEWD THROUGH SLIDELL TO NEAR GPT.
AIRMASS TO THE S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE
WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG. RECENT RADAR TRENDS FROM
SLIDELL SHOW SURFACE-BASED TSTMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE S OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM N OF HUM TO NEW. SLIDELL VWP DATA SHOW THAT
LOW-LEVEL WINDS HAVE BACKED OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS...EFFECTIVELY LENGTHENING LOCAL HODOGRAPHS. ALTHOUGH
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR REMAINS MARGINAL FOR ORGANIZED TSTMS --0-6 KM
SHEAR OF 35 KT-- LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH CURVATURE AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO
OR SEVERE WIND GUST WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS THAT CAN REMAIN
ROOTED IN THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER.

..MEAD.. 03/12/2003


ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
LAC025-122240-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
339 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSON HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
CATAHOULA PARISH IN NORTHEAST LOUISIANA

* UNTIL 440 PM CST

* AT 339 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES WEST OF LARTO LAKE...OR ABOUT 14 MILES
NORTH OF EFFIE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM SHOULD
MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST CATAHOULA PARISH AROUND 400 PM. HAIL TO THE
SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS IS LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.

ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS SHOWN NEAR JENA AND WAS MOVING EAST
AT 25 MPH. THIS STORM WILL ENTER THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF CATAHOULA
PARISH AROUND 350 PM. HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES IS LIKELY WITH
THIS STORM.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL...
BE NEAR LARTO LAKE AT 400 PM CST
BE NEAR ARCHIE AT 410 PM CST
BE NEAR JONESVILLE AT 435 PM CST

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
LAC059-122215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
324 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LA SALLE PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA

* UNTIL 415 PM CST

* AT 324 PM CST...THE SHREVEPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER
RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF JENA...
AND ANOTHER SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF JENA. BOTH
STORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
9 MILES SOUTHEAST OF JENA AT 415 PM CST

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL PRODUCE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL SIZE.

REPEATING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
LA SALLE PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
UNTIL 415 PM CST.

[wx247]

Lots o' hail in those storms too. Yeesh!

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

yeah I'm watching SPC for reports...should be some to post soon!

[wx247]

Latest WW34 says Severe Threat continues across entire watch area... STAY TUNED!

[wx247]

Here are some new hail reports within the last hour...

2110 275 PINEVILLE RAPIDES LA 3131 9243 BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY RAPIDES 911. (LCH)

2115 100 HOBE SOUND MARTIN FL 2706 8013 WEST PALM BEACH TV CHANNEL 12 REPORT. (MLB)

2136 175 PINEVILLE RAPIDES LA 3131 9243 GOLFBALL HAIL IN PINEVILLE REPORTED BY PUBLIC (LCH)

[HoumaLa]

it came through about 230 here got real bad for a while but the sun is out now thanks for the warnings

[wx247]

You got any hail there?

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0222
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0552 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL ERN KS...WRN MO AND NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 34...

VALID 122352Z - 130115Z

23Z MESOANALYSIS DEPICTS A 1006 MB LOW JUST NE OF PNC WITH A WARM
FRONT NEWD N OF CNU AND INTO CNTRL MO AND A CONVERGENCE LINE
EXTENDING SWWD INTO SW OK AHEAD OF THE MAIN DRYLINE. A SURGE OF
COOLER AIR WAS MOVING SWD THROUGH MCI METRO AREA INTO SCNTRL KS.


ELEVATED TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM ACROSS NERN KS AND ARE HEADING
EWD TOWARD NWRN MO AND WILL POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR SEVERAL
MORE HOURS. OTHERWISE...TSTMS ROOTED CLOSER TO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER ARE DEVELOPING ALONG NOSE OF THERMAL/INSTABILITY AXES SOUTH
OF EMP. THIS ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO INCREASE AND EXPAND EWD
TOWARD WCNTRL MO THROUGH THE EVENING AS UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MIGRATES ACROSS KS. PROFILERS SHOW DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF AROUND 35
KTS...JUST ENOUGH TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH
POSSIBLE SUPERCELLS. MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 15C ATOP
BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S WILL SUPPORT LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

AS SWLY LLJ INCREASES THIS EVENING...ACTIVITY SHOULD TRY TO
BACKBUILD SWWD TOWARD NERN OK...BUT UNCERTAINLY EXISTS ON HOW FAR
SWWD THIS MAY OCCUR. PRIND THAT ONE OR MORE MCS/S WILL
EVENTUALLY TRACK ESEWD INTO MO AND PERHAPS NERN OK WITH MAINLY A
LARGE HAIL THREAT WITH LESSER THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS. AS SUCH...A WW MAY BE REQUIRED OVER PORTIONS
OF NERN OK AND/OR REPLACEMENT WW ACROSS PORTIONS OF MO/EXTREME
ERN KS IN A FEW HOURS.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1947 75 ASHDOWN LITTLE RIVER AR 3366 9413 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (SHV)
1950 75 OKEECHOBEE COUNTY OKEECHOBEE FL 2743 8091 MOTORIST ON SR 68 ALONG THE OKEECHOBEE AND ST LUCIE COUNTY LINE. (MLB)
1950 75 ST LUCIE COUNTY ST LUCIE FL 2766 8046 SAME REPORT AS OKEECHOBEE (MLB)
2030 100 7 N COLFAX GRANT LA 3163 9271 REPORTED BY LAW ENFORCEMENT (SHV)
2110 275 PINEVILLE RAPIDES LA 3131 9243 BASEBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED BY RAPIDES 911. (LCH)
2115 100 HOBE SOUND MARTIN FL 2706 8013 WEST PALM BEACH TV CHANNEL 12 REPORT. (MLB)
2136 175 PINEVILLE RAPIDES LA 3131 9243 GOLFBALL HAIL IN PINEVILLE REPORTED BY PUBLIC (LCH)
2233 75 5 SSE WESTMORELAND POTTAWATOMIE KS 3932 9637 (TOP)
2310 175 8 S JONESVILLE CATAHOULA LA 3148 9183 PUBLIC REPORT (JAN)

[wx247]

Thanks for the update Rob.

Just heard on the news from the CBS affiliate who has a spotter just east of Virgil had a "little larger than golfball" sized hail just moments ago. Yeesh!

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Yeah these cells are real big hail makers. KS and MS and LA are the whoppers now and currently there's 11 separate hail storms going on now...lol More reports will be coming in.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

TORNADO WARNING
KSC207-130130-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
636 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS

* UNTIL 730 PM CST

* AT 636 PM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION 7 MILES WEST OF YATES
CENTER...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF TORONTO...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.
THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE A TORNADO AT ANY TIME.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE
NEAR YATES CENTER AROUND 645 PM CST...

THIS REPLACES THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING PREVIOUSLY ISSUED FOR
THE WARNED AREA.

IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...MOVE INTO AN INTERIOR ROOM
ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A STURDY STRUCTURE.

REPEATING...A TORNADO WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WOODSON COUNTY
UNTIL 730 PM CST.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

0033 88 NEOSHO RAPIDS LYON KS 3836 9598 (TOP)
0035 75 2 W HOYT JACKSON KS 3924 9574 (TOP)
0040 100 ELLISVILLE JONES MS 3159 8920 REPORTED BY ELLISVILLE POLICE DEPARTMENT. (JAN)
0040 75 2 S GRIDLEY COFFEY KS 3806 9588 (TOP)
0053 100 1 E ESKRIDGE WABAUNSEE KS 3884 9607 (TOP)
0100 100 PERRY JEFFERSON KS 3908 9539 (TOP)

[wx247]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0223
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0748 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME ERN KS...WRN/CNTRL MO AND SMALL PART OF
NERN OK

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 130148Z - 130245Z

A NEW WW WBIS SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF EXTREME ERN KS...WRN/CNTRL
MO AND A SMALL PART OF NERN OK AFTER COLLABORATION WITH THE
AFFECTED WFOS JUST AFTER 02Z.

CONVECTION HAS TRENDED TOWARD LINEAR MODE IN THE KANSAS CITY
METRO AREA WITH LINE MOVING 275/25 KTS. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY
MOVE EWD INTO WRN/CNTRL MO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
MEANWHILE... SUPERCELL THAT FORMED OVER SERN KS SOUTH OF EMP
CONTINUES MOVE TO THE SE...SOMEWHAT DEVIANT FROM MEAN WIND FLOW.
HOWEVER...ACTIVITY IS RAPIDLY BACKBUILDING SWWD INTO EXTREME NRN
PARTS OF OSAGE COUNTY OK AND APPEARS TO BE HEADING TOWARD MCS
DEVELOPMENT ALONG NRN PERIPHERY OF CAP EVIDENT ACROSS MUCH OF
CNTRL/NRN OK.

MCS/S WILL TRANSLATE ESEWD ACROSS MO AND EXTREME NERN OK DURING
THE EVENING. DEEP LAYER SHEAR VALUES ARE JUST SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. EVENING RAOBS SUGGEST THAT LARGE
HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WINDS ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE.


..RACY.. 03/13/2003


ATTN...WFO...LSX...SGF...EAX...TSA...TOP...ICT...

[wx247]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 35
STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
825 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST KANSAS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 825 PM
UNTIL 200 AM CST.

HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 95 STATUTE MILES
EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONETT MISSOURI
TO 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF COLUMBIA MISSOURI.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REPLACES
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 34. WATCH NUMBER 34 WILL NOT BE
IN EFFECT AFTER 825 PM CST.

DISCUSSION...LINE OF INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN KS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND TRACK EASTWARD INTO WESTERN/CENTRAL MO.
MEANWHILE...ISOLATED STORMS ARE DEVELOPING SOUTHWARD ALONG COLD
FRONT INTO NORTHERN OK. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MODERATE
INSTABILITY...AND STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING REGION WILL
PROMOTE THE THREAT OF SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 28035.

[wx247]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0225
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0928 PM CST WED MAR 12 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL IL

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 130328Z - 130530Z

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER FROM WCENTRAL INTO ECENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...ANTICIPATED LIMITED NATURE OF THREAT
WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WEATHER WATCH.

STRONG CONVECTION CONTINUES TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM NERN MO INTO WCENTRAL IL.
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONTAL HAS BECOME MAXIMIZED AS DEVELOPING
MCS OVER WRN MO WAS LIKELY AIDING IN MESOSCALE ENHANCEMENT OF
PRE-EXISTING LOW LEVEL JET OVER THE REGION. MODIFIED 00Z SOUNDING
FROM ILX FOR LOW LEVEL CONDITIONS FROM THE 00Z SGF SOUNDING
SUGGESTS THAT SUFFICIENT LIFT/MOISTENING OF THE 850 MB WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG. 50 KT MID LEVEL
WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL SHEAR FOR STORM
ROTATION AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL GIVEN PRESENCE
OF LOW WBZ HEIGHTS AROUND 6500 FT.