Texas Fall 2025

[Ntxw]

Do you have any possible analogs for this winter yet? Imo, if we get +epo, we will blowtorch. No doubting that. If we get occasional -epo, we should have a few opportunities at cold. The pacific is crucial for cold weather here!

Summer response makes me believe a 2013-14 (warmer now), 2017-2018, 2021-2022 type season but way too early to tell right now. Once the actual Fall pattern sets up shop here in the coming month or two will be able to have a better handle. My early guess is that there will be some form poleward Aleutian ridge displaced to the GOA much like in the summer. So bouts of -EPO but maybe lack of Atlantic blocking. Last winter featured more of a delayed Nino response despite being cold enso, which I am not expecting this season since we are now far removed from the 2023-2024 big El Nino. We will likely revert to a more traditional Nina where trough is in Central Canada and northern US vs Atlantic Canada and northeast US.

Personally I think a composite of recent 2nd year Ninas may work of 2017-2018 and 2021-2022. We will likely see a strong Hudson Bay PV this winter with stout SE ridge.

https://i.imgur.com/sktuf17.gif

https://i.imgur.com/OQkYLYY.gif

https://i.imgur.com/L879yZh.gif

Last year, much more Nino. No long term guidance is showing a repeat as of now.

https://i.imgur.com/lxjD8HE.gif

21-22 winter we had more east based niña and -qbo fwiw. December was really warm but changed beginning of 2022 and it was pretty cold and stormy from what I recall. December skewed the means towards warm overall. If I was a betting man, I would go with dec-most january fairly cold and then blowtorch soon after. Just a guess.

Yeah nothing is a true match. Solar wise you're looking at '17-18, maybe '01-02, but from an enso standpoint last year was closer to 20-21 with the Atlantic blocking (cold/storm was displaced in Jan to LA->FLA gulf coast their version of feb 21 for TX) but will be reversal this year. Probably a warm winter down there, we will have to see what the EPO does against the SE ridge this winter as the cold will sit central-east central Canada but locked up in your more typical La Nina configuration.

[Stratton23]

Probably just grabbing at straws here, but tonights runs are the first that ive seen ( GFS, Euro and Euro AIFS ) show a pretty big pattern change as we get into mid october , im not sold yet given ensembles are still keeping things warm, but will watch the trends, we really need to start by getting rid of the stubborn interior US ridging thats been driving all this warmth, need to see that Alaskan Ridge pump up like what is shown on those 3 global models mid october

[Lagreeneyes03]

So coming into October, seems no end to the heat in sight. Pool is still 83 degrees in the afternoon and have been enjoying it, not shutting it down anytime in the next 2 weeks or so it seems. I did see some chatter about 2013-2014 being an analog year if we continue to have a lack of hurricanes hitting the CONUS. So far, so good. Not sure if I want to relive cobblestone ice though.

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.fox4news.com/weather/meteor ... retirement

Well, who is going to call out social media internet meteorologists now?

All joking aside, I wish him the best of luck in his retirement. I hope he enjoys it and and his family gets to spend quality time now.

[rwfromkansas]

https://www.fox4news.com/weather/meteorologist-evan-andrews-announces-his-retirement

Well, who is going to call out social media internet meteorologists now?

All joking aside, I wish him the best of luck in his retirement. I hope he enjoys it and and his family gets to spend quality time now.

I really like the guy despite disliking his obsession with weather pages. Lol. Seems young to retire.

[Stratton23]

18z GFS in the 10-12 day range is an improvement if you want more fall like air to make an appearance, good blocking over the top, or a -EPO / -NAO combo, mean trough is over the eastern US on this run, but hangs back some, texas gets glanced by fall air on this run , but plenty of time to watch this, I do think we are heading for a pattern change after october 10/11th or so

[Brent]

Interestingly Wichita had its 5th month in a row below normal apparently first time since... 13-14



But seriously it's only a matter of time. It's coming

[Brent]

GFS has a cold rain for the Texas OU game in 11 days

Looks like the Pacific gets involved

I'll be interested to see how that trends as we get closer

[FloppaHorn]

GFS has a cold rain for the Texas OU game in 11 days

Looks like the Pacific gets involved

I'll be interested to see how that trends as we get closer

In having attended the game last year and almost died of heat stroke (exaggeration), I'd welcome a cold rain.

[mmmmsnouts]

Isn’t this more or less an offseason death ridge? Temps are way above normal, very dry flash drought conditions, troughs can’t even get close enough to create some breezes and eventually the air quality goes to hell. If it was early August with this setup we’d all be in agony.

[Stratton23]

Man i got some potentially bad news if youre hoping for a cold winter in the US, specifically the central us , including texas, looking at the extended Euro, CFS, and CANSIPS seasonal models, they all show more of a Aleutian ridge centered west of alaska and off shore during December- February, not a - EPO look, thats a look for a lot of pacific air to flood the US, at least thats the way i see it, things can change, but i really do not like what im seeing from some of the seasonal guidance

[Cpv17]

Man i got some potentially bad news if youre hoping for a cold winter in the US, specifically the central us , including texas, looking at the extended Euro, CFS, and CANSIPS seasonal models, they all show more of a Aleutian ridge centered west of alaska and off shore during December- February, not a - EPO look, thats a look for a lot of pacific air to flood the US, at least thats the way i see it, things can change, but i really do not like what im seeing from some of the seasonal guidance

I’ve learned in life to not get your hopes up. It’s much easier that way. Much less heartbreak.

[Brent]

Man i got some potentially bad news if youre hoping for a cold winter in the US, specifically the central us , including texas, looking at the extended Euro, CFS, and CANSIPS seasonal models, they all show more of a Aleutian ridge centered west of alaska and off shore during December- February, not a - EPO look, thats a look for a lot of pacific air to flood the US, at least thats the way i see it, things can change, but i really do not like what im seeing from some of the seasonal guidance

I’ve learned in life to not get your hopes up. It’s much easier that way. Much less heartbreak.

This is exactly why I've been talking down the winter a bit. I am too old to be getting burned by the few snowy analogs we have here

I mean even up here... We still live in the south. Most of the winter probably won't be that cold

[starsfan65]

Man i got some potentially bad news if youre hoping for a cold winter in the US, specifically the central us , including texas, looking at the extended Euro, CFS, and CANSIPS seasonal models, they all show more of a Aleutian ridge centered west of alaska and off shore during December- February, not a - EPO look, thats a look for a lot of pacific air to flood the US, at least thats the way i see it, things can change, but i really do not like what im seeing from some of the seasonal guidance

This can't be true

[gpsnowman]

This pattern sucks. The longevity is rotten.

[Ntxw]

Isn’t this more or less an offseason death ridge? Temps are way above normal, very dry flash drought conditions, troughs can’t even get close enough to create some breezes and eventually the air quality goes to hell. If it was early August with this setup we’d all be in agony.

The issue has been source region. The pattern didn't yield much above normal in the summer, near normal and cool at times, but it doesn't do the same in the early Fall. You need to change the air mass and there isn't true cold Fall air to change it up, no matter the 500mb pattern. This has been a recurring theme for awhile, it's taking longer for the continent to cool because it's taking longer for the areas up north (Arctic and Canada) to cool. If the fridge is broke, there's no way to make cold air.

In the past for DFW (and many areas in NTX) 80F or higher monthly average in September was once or twice a decade, in the past ten years it has been the complete opposite with once or twice below 80F.

[Brent]

I had forgotten that last winter between the extreme cold in January and February we had a record high of 83 on February 4th

Last winter was above average because the torch was even crazier when it did happen. Also December was boring yet again it was all in January February. That's been the story ever since I moved here pretty much

Everyone just remembers the 2 weeks we got lucky

[mmmmsnouts]

In the past for DFW (and many areas in NTX) 80F or higher monthly average in September was once or twice a decade, in the past ten years it has been the complete opposite with once or twice below 80F.

I understand all of that, but I was really thinking of the dry and stagnant air sitting in place for weeks on end. By the time we get back into a solid rain pattern, it will have been almost a month since our last substantial precip. There’s been at least one of these spells every year lately, which is really concerning.

[Ntxw]

In the past for DFW (and many areas in NTX) 80F or higher monthly average in September was once or twice a decade, in the past ten years it has been the complete opposite with once or twice below 80F.

I understand all of that, but I was really thinking of the dry and stagnant air sitting in place for weeks on end. By the time we get back into a solid rain pattern, it will have been almost a month since our last substantial precip. There’s been at least one of these spells every year lately, which is really concerning.

I think one area we can put some blame is the -PDO. We have been in a pretty persistent -PDO since 2020.

[Cpv17]

I understand all of that, but I was really thinking of the dry and stagnant air sitting in place for weeks on end. By the time we get back into a solid rain pattern, it will have been almost a month since our last substantial precip. There’s been at least one of these spells every year lately, which is really concerning.

I think one area we can put some blame is the -PDO. We have been in a pretty persistent -PDO since 2020.

Bingo & it’s stubborn as hell too.