Az Grill is Open:Huevos Rancheros Prognostico del Monsoon

[Stephanie]

TWC weekly planner hinted at moisture and "perhaps" the beginning of the monsoon next Wednesday. They are also thinking that Claudtte's moisture maybe making its way WEST.

KEEPING MY FINGERS CROSSED!

\\

No offense intended..but I'm well out in front of TWC..which uses the MOC
old MRF sequence of Mods..I discount half+ of what they spew.
Moreover..frankly..Dr Lyons is a smart guy..but is blowing the potential for serious FF in S Tejas...aka 'Allison.
'Dr 'Good News' should know better.
15-30in of RA+ even from a strong troppy storm out of the BOC is not out of the question..and he talks of 'surf'.I am a surfer and know how to make a potentially dangerous situation real...man what a waste of talent IMO.

No offense taken what so ever my friend. I remember alot of other discussions on TWC regarding winter weather, severe weather and the tropics where TWC was ripped apart because of their use of the "Smurf" models (my nickname for the MRF). Perhaps that's another reason for their mass banning - but that's another topic.

[Arizwx]

*********TUS NWS******** 11am 11JUL03

****SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH for 7 SE AZ Counties INCLUDING PIMA,COCHISE,GRAHAM,SANTA CRUZ,PINAL/GREENLEE/Upper Gila
UNTIL 5PM This includes the Lower White Mtns to GLOBE.Hannagan Mdw.
Also...****FLASH FLOOD WATCH**** for the Mountains of Pima and Cochise Counties INCLUDING the MT LEMMON/Santa Catalina /Rincons and Santa Rita Mtns****until 8pm THIS INCLUDES THE BURNED AREAS!

CAPE has now eclipsed 2700jk/g with sounding indicating massive Southerly Inflow...Yuma has a dew of 71 with Showers according to one report...Guaymas.MX has a PW of 1.70+ and TUS 1.40in+
Shear Axis setting up just East of Dwntn Tucson with an outflow boundry from New Mexico has CB activity building midlevel shear off the VAD is now 30+KT which will accelerate T-Storm Cells in 'Blocks' moving W at 25+..major SFC Downburst Potential way past 60KT..very damaging...Hail is not uncommon from these systems.Also with the Gulf Surge...and isolated Tornado :o is also possible IMHO...Let's Be Careful out There!This may be one prog I'm not too proud of...too much too soon.Talk about Huevos Rancheros MAXIMOS!
~"So,Joey...Do ya Like Turkish Steam Baths?"~
From the movie:"Airplane!"

NWTUS
98F/Dewpoint 60F/winds calm/CB on the Horizon with haze/sun

[Colin]

Stay safe! :o

[Arizwx]

Stay safe! :o

Thx..Young Wx Sage...that's the general idea!Towers Incoming!

[weatherlover427]

Dang some nice boomers in southern AZ today. :o FINALLY some much needed rain!

[Aslkahuna]

it's best to leave things well enough alone. On this July 11th, the monsoon clock has started for Sierra Vista and Tucson. If (and that's a big IF-see below) we can keep the flow pattern and the moisture pattern along with the higher dewpoints in here for three days straight then today will be the onset date. That would mean that my forecast I put out in May for 7-11 July as the period of onset would hit-unfortunately, I revised it recently so I would have to take a bust on it. However, there are grumblings from the Peanut Gallery so to speak. The Upper High which has been favorably place for the past 36 hours or so is expected to shift southward and possibly cut off the moisture by Sunday, if this happens and the moisture and flow patterns become unfavorable and the average dewpoints drop below the magic numbers on Sunday then we will NOT have a start today so we are still waiting to see what happens down the line.

Now, about today's storms. A storm developed just east of Sierra Vista and I went out on a chase hoping to catch the storms as it moved west out of Fort Huachuca. Initially things didn't look that impressive as I was in Huachuca City but the storm soon took on an appearance commonly seen here and I realized that it was probably severe and a right mover but as I headed to catch it, a tire blew and I was out of the chase. I did videotape some backside structure (possibly a wall cloud) as the storm which was initially elevated convection hit that lower moisture west of us from the Sea of Cortez while in Whetstone and ended the chase when the storm became outflow dominant and HP. A later check of the radar showed my suspicions were correct as the storm was a right mover and showed storm scale rotation of the precip core suggesting that it was a rotating hailer. The storm had merged with a line coming out of Mescal Pass headed towards Sahuarita or Green Valley. As the storm came through SV, I picked up 0.43in of rain at the house (heaviest 24 hour since February and first 0.1in or more since March 17th). FHU reported a gust to 39mph on their side of the runway while I recorded 30-35mph gusts in the SV Airport parking lot.

Steve

[Stephanie]

I'm sure that you won't mind busting on this forecast Steve. I hope you do and that this monsoon season is a credit to its name this year!

[weatherlover427]

Let's hope it goes through the 13th! Then you will have the beginning of the season (finally)!

[Aslkahuna]

in the meantime, here's a shot of the storm as it was developing over Sierra Vista.



Steve
[/img]

[Arizwx]

Nice shot...I noticed the rotater on KEMX 88-D earlier.There is an extended SEV Trstrm Warning for N/C Pima County as a Sev trstrm heads NW out of Silverbell toward Marana with winds of 55+ w/ 1in diameter hail...I had an outflow of 47kt 10min ago...BTW..Grillo de Arizona remains open...with fresh Salsa de Habanero.

~The Peanut Gallery~

[weatherlover427]

Sweet pic Steve! I remember when I chased near Globe and that area in late May; we saw nothing of the sort (but we did see mammatus ).

[weatherlover427]

MOISTURE ALOFT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED WITH THE FLOW NOW OUT OF THE E/SE. HOWEVER...THE HIGH WILL BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FLOW VERY ANTI-CYCLONIC AND KEEP MOSTLY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT SO THAT TSTORMS CHANCES WILL BE FAIRLY LOW THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE NEXT WEEK WILL PROBABLY BE WHEN WE SEE THE FIRST TSTORMS AS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FURTHER...BOTH DUE TO THE HIGH SHIFTING A BIT NE AND POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF CLAUDETTE ACTING AS AN EASTERLY WAVE AND/OR SHIFTING MOISTURE WEST OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. IF THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS CONTINUE TO DISPLAY INCREASING MOISTURE LATE NEXT WEEK...THEN MTN/DESERT TSTORMS WILL BE NEEDED IN THE EXTENDED.


My AFD.

[M2]

Well you Southern Zonies got your first chase in today
and got to see hail, rain, wind and RAIN - Congrats! I watched it from
afar on & off via sattellite pix, radar and warnings online. "Where's the
outflow?"

[Arizwx]

Well you Southern Zonies got your first chase in today
and got to see hail, rain, wind and RAIN - Congrats! I watched it from
afar on & off via sattellite pix, radar and warnings online. "Where's the
outflow?"

M2,
As per my earlier discussion ala 'Huevos Prognosticos'..the VAD wind profile provided excellent info...A 35kt+inflow to the west directed CB activity directly in the W directive with outflows exceeding 50kt within the past hr.Take note..this is not the neo classical flow to PHX,rather a NMexican flow to West with a Mexican Convergence line to NE of TUS and a Gulf Flow Surge from the South...a rather limited scope.
Also note...the word 'MONSOON' as you know is of Arabic origin...meaning simply a wind shift change...in our case from CaliWest to the ESE Component.

[M2]

Arizwx wrote:
M2,
As per my earlier discussion ala 'Huevos Prognosticos'..the VAD wind profile provided excellent info...A 35kt+inflow to the west directed CB activity directly in the W directive with outflows exceeding 50kt within the past hr.Take note..this is not the neo classical flow to PHX,rather a NMexican flow to West with a Mexican Convergence line to NE of TUS and a Gulf Flow Surge from the South...a rather limited scope.
Also note...the word 'MONSOON' as you know os Arabic...meaning simply a wind shift change...in our case from CaliWest to the ESE Component.

Well AZ, I was watching the winds veer the storms in from New Mexico and
could see fairly well that we weren't going to get any action out of you today
because it was going in the wrong direction. I had hoped the southern MCS
outflows would have been stronger going north, but you guys were just
getting the juice so I have to wait til you're knocked around first. It's just
starting...I'll keep dancing...


OH - I see that the NWS *is* calling for outflow/dust to arrive here
possibly tonight...and again tomorrow after the action. Windchimes were
ringing so there's some movement out there...Water Vapor loop is very
impressive at this hour -12:15am Sat. A good sign; we'll take it.

[azskyman]

Interesting M2, that you notice the wind chime connection too...especially in the evening or nighttime hours. CB were impressive although widely scattered last evening...from Payson down toward Gila Bend.

In spite of yesterday's prediction for a dry tongue to poke into the valley, it is still humid with a DP of 55 this morning. I do believe we are "on the verge."

[Colin]

That's a nice AFD, Joshua...looks like you may be getting your first storms later this week. Enjoy and keep us updated!

[Aslkahuna]

have shown up in SE AZ with the sharpest drops in Cochise County where the clock may stop without an onset declaration in Douglas and Sierra Vista unless we see an increase with convection this afternoon. Tucson still hanging in with the dewpoint though if it drops too much there today and tomorrow the clock will stop there as well. Could see Tucson call the onset for SE AZ while Cochise County fail to meet the criteria. But we are close.

Steve

[M2]

I think you're right Steve. The dewpoints here are already down to 50, and
unless we get some outflow later to keep us in the juice, tomorrow may kill
our required consecutive 3-day DP=55. Tucson looks like they're getting
some nice action at this hour. We have a wall to our east - from the Lakes
all the way down to Tucson; cells moving SSW so we just may get 'brushed'
by some winds/sand. If we die on the vine today/tomorrow, the count will
have to start anew the next time we hit 55.

[Aslkahuna]

Our dewpoints dropped into the 40's this afternoon at FHU and are running around 50 at DUG. It's TIA that's keeping Tucson alive as DMA's dewpoint also dropped into the high 40's this afternoon while TIA's hanging in there in the mid 50's-the gardener's probably watering the grass around the sensor again.

An interesting tidbit-as I was updating my daily forecast on my homepage,
I noted that to date this month we have had 9 days with 100F or higher with the last 7 in a row. This is the most 100F days in July since I began records for temperature in 1988 and ties for the most 100F days in a row with that frightful heat blast in June 1994. We have 14 days of 100F or higher this year so far second only to last year's 19 days so it has definitely been hot and we have a chance tomorrow to set a new consecutive day record. At FHU, the HOURLY reports have indicated temperatures peaking in the 98-102 range this past week so they have been within a degree or two of my readings which supports my numbers here at the house.

Steve