TX Severe Threat...this evening through Friday Night

[vbhoutex]

It is now sunny here in SW Houston and radar is showing another line trying to build to our North. All may not be lost yet. I've seen situations like this go severe very fast in the past. Of course that is when the cap breaks that this rapid intensification happens.

[Shoshana]

Partly cloudy and pretty darn toasty here. Official temp is 88, my thermometer is reading 90.

They've been talking hail - but it doesn't much look like it now. Last night they said best chance was 3 pm to 6 or 7 pm...

'shana

[PTrackerLA]

Well looks like once again we won't be getting much if any rain. However temps are now into the mid 80's across the area so I'll be watching the weak line of showers developing near Alexandria. Hopefully we'll get lucky and the cap will burst because we really need the rain.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
325 PM CDT FRI APR 22 2005

.SYNOPSIS...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A CDFNT ACROSS NWRN LA INTO
E-CNTL TX W/ A PRE-FNTL TROF RUNNING FROM THE GALVESTON BAY AREA
NEWD TOWARD THE LAKES REGION THEN E ACROSS CNTL LA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MID/UPR LO ROTATING PAST THE MS RIVER INTO SRN IL W/
A VORT LOBE EXTENDING SW THROUGH THE TN & MS VALLEYS. 18Z SPECIAL
KLCH SOUNDING STILL SHOWED A WEAK CAP AND WAS FAIRLY DRY IN THE LWR-
LVLS. AREA 88DS SHOW EARLIER CONVECTION WHICH MOVED INTO THE NERN
ZONES DISSIPATED FAIRLY QUICKLY...HOWEVER ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IS
DEVELOPING ALONG THE TROF AND HEADING TOWARD THE EXTREME NRN ZONES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NOTHING IMPRESSIVE HAS YET TO HAPPEN W/ THIS AFTN'S
POSSIBLE SVR WX EVENT. APPEARS THE CAP/DRY AIR IS WINNING SO FAR.
AS THE MID-LVL LO PROGRESSES TO THE E WE MAY GET A QUICK SHOT OF
COOLING ALOFT WHICH WOULD BUST THE CAP AND ALLOW SOMETHING TO GET
GOING. SPECIAL SOUNDING DID INDICATE A SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS
WHICH HAS LIKELY BECOME A LITTLE MORE UNSTABLE W/ ADDITIONAL
HEATING. HOWEVER KJAN'S 18Z SOUNDING AS WELL AS LAPS DATA INDICATE
BEST CAPE/LI'S STAYING TO OUR NE. WILL GO AHEAD AND MAINTAIN CHC
POPS ALREADY IN THE FCST. NOT TOO CONVINCED ON SVR WX THREAT BUT
WILL LEAVE MENTION IN THE ZONES W/ A WATCH BOX IN EFFECT.

ONCE THE FNT PASSES THRU THE AREA TNGT A NICE WEEKEND LOOKS ON
TAP. MEAN RH VALUES PROGGED TO DROP TO LESS THAN 25 PCNT WHILE
DEWPTS FALL INTO THE 30S. RECORD LOW TEMPS POSSIBLE SUN MRNG AT
KAEX/KBPT...WHILE NEAR RECORD LOWS POSSIBLE AT KLFT/KARA. RAIN
CHANCES RETURN TO THE FCST AS EARLY AS MON AS NEXT MID/UPR-LVL
SYSTEM CROSSES THE SWRN CONUS WHILE SFC FNT APPROACHES THE REGION
FROM THE W. POPS LINGER INTO TUE EVE WHEN FNT FINALLY MAKES IT
THRU THE AREA.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

Looks like tonight's severe weather episode is not going to happen. As humid as it was today and the way the winds died down towards evening, I thought for sure we were in for some good ones tonight.

It's been almost 60 days since we have had a good rain (more than an inch) here in the Corpus area. We could sure use a drink!