Potentially dangerous weather in store this weekend

[JetMaxx]

The noon update SPC has increased the risk of severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes to moderate tomorrow into tomorrow night from eastern Texas to Alabama and the Florida panhandle.....including the risk of a few significant tornadoes.

I personally feel the moderate risk should be extended farther north in Alabama and Mississippi, and likely will be--based on latest model trends of a deeper storm and storm track farther north. It also won't surprise me if a portion of the moderate risk is upgraded to HIGH either tonight or early tomorrow.

This is a potentially very dangerous severe weather outbreak....and will likely occur farther east on Saturday from eastern Alabama and northern Florida across Georgia and the Carolinas. With such a deep (intense) low pressure storm center, extremely strong winds aloft, and an associated negative tilt upper level pattern at 500 mb (18,000'), a few significant tornadoes (F2 or higher) will not surprise me on Saturday as well.

I advise all residents from east Texas to North Carolina to closely monitor the latest forecasts and developments via NOAA Weather Radio, or a trusted media outlet in your area.

[Rainband]

So we won't get any storms on the west central coast of Florida then, darn it

[southerngale]

Weather alert just went off...flood watch for us, but we haven't had much rain yet.

Hmmmm...this could get interesting.


SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
135 PM CST THU FEB 20 2003

THE FRONT HAS DRIFTED SLIGHTLY NORTH AND IS NOW ALONG THE INTERSTATE
10 CORRIDOR FROM BPT TO COLUMBUS. TEMPERATURES NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
HOLDING IN THE MID-UPPER 50S. NEAR THE COAST 60S THE RULE. CONVECTION
HAS BEEN FOCUSED FROM NEAR LAKE SOMERVILLE TO CROCKETT. HEAVIEST
RAINFALL HAS BEEN OVER BURLESON COUNTY ESTIMATING 5 TO 6 INCHES.
RAINFALL AT CLL MIDNIGHT TO 130 PM 2.76". UPPER LOW OVER NORTHERN GULF
OF CALIFORNIA MOVING NEARLY DUE EAST. THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHOULD PUSH
THROUGH THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT (MODELS IN GOOD CONSENSUS.) IN
THE MEANTIME SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL BE UNDER THE FAUCET. FRONT SHOULD
LIFT SLOWLY NORTH THIS EVENING AND WILL PLACE SOUTHERN FA IN FAVORABLE
REGION FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH PRECIP WILL BE SCATTERED IN
NATURE NOT AS WIDESPREAD AS NORTH OF THE FRONT. DEWPOINTS 62-66 WILL
BE PRESENT IN THE WARM SECTOR AND LL SHEAR WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
OVERNIGHT AS LLJ DEVELOPS. STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND THE APPROACH OF
THE LEFT EXIT REGION WILL WARRANT HIGH POPS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE
THREAT. EXPECTING STORM RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1-2" BEING FAIRLY
COMMON...ISOLATED TOTALS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES. THE GREATER AMOUNTS SHOULD
BE OVER THE NORTHERN FA. WILL EXPAND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO INCLUDE
THE ENTIRE AREA AND UP ACCUMULATIONS. PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
SQUALL LINE SHOULD DEVELOP TO THE SW AND MOVE INTO THE GULF AND
ASSOCIATED MCV SWEEPS LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ENDING THE
PRECIPITATION. MILD PACIFIC AIRMASS FOLLOWS BUT WILL BE QUICKLY
MODIFIED AS NEXT SYSTEM STARTS TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
SUNDAY. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SOUTH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS
NEXT PACIFIC FRONT GETS JUST OFFSHORE AGAIN AND ON MONDAY AND MOISTURE
INCREASES QUICKLY WITH RAIN CHANCES GOING UP ON MONDAY. CLOUDS SHOULD
BE PERSISTING OVER THE REGION WELL INTO TUESDAY.

[Kevin_Wx]

you're going to get it. The only area in Florida that will not see a high threat of severe weather is Southern Florida. Have you read the NWS discussions for Central Florida this afternoon? They look rather grim. This is going to be a very bad event for the whole SE US. People from Texas to North Carolina need to be forming a plan in case severe weather strikes their area. You should also stay alert during the time the severe is expected to impact your individual area.

[Amanzi]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
245 PM EST THU FEB 20 2003

SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ALONG AND OFF THE
E COAST TODAY IN INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIRMASS. RADAR ALSO
SHOWING CHAFF ECHOES IN GAINESVILLE-OCALA AREAS.

ACTIVE WEATHER SETTING UP NEXT FEW DAYS. UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SW
WILL MOVE INTO TEXAS FRIDAY AND THEN BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT
STARTS TO SHEAR OFF TO THE NE ACROSS THE TN VALLEY SATURDAY.
TONIGHT/FRI MORNING A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH THROUGH AREA
REACHING SE GA BY MIDDAY FRIDAY. WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE POPS AS
MOISTURE/INSTABILITY INCREASES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. SPC HAS AREA IN
SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ON SATURDAY. AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
A SQUALL LINE WILL LIKELY MOVE THROUGH DURING THE DAY WITH HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY DAMAGING WINDS. MESO-ETA SHOWS LI'S AROUND
-3...850MB JET NEAR 60 KTS...AND HELICITY IN 200-300 RANGE. STAY
TUNED.

EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS INTERESTING WITH OPERATIONAL MEX MOS
TEMPERATURES SHOWING A FREEZE WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER THE
ENSEMBLE NUMBERS SHOW MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW
BEHIND FRONT AS OPPOSED TO THE OFFSHORE FLOW SHOWN BY THE
OPERATIONAL MRF. DID NOT ACCEPT THIS COLDER SOLUTION SINCE IT IS
THE OUTLIER OF ALL THE MODELS.

MARINE...WINDS HAVE VEERED TO THE EAST AT 41012...BUT REMAIN NELY
ALONG THE CST...WL KEEP CWF SPLIT NRSHR AND OFSHR...AND NOTE A
LITTLE MORE BACKING TO THE WIND OVER THE NRSHR WTRS. OTRW...SCA
CONDS STILL ON TRACK FOR FRI NGT OFSHR AND SAT NRSHR. WL KEEP OFSHR
WTRS BELOW GALE FORCE AT 25-30 KTS...BUT GALE FORCE GUSTS PSBL WITH
TSTM ACTIVITY.

FIRE WX...SUPRISINGLY...ENUF INSOLATION HAS DROPPED RH LEVELS INTO
THE 30S ACRS INLD NE FL...BUT NO HEADLINES ARE REQUIRED AT THIS
TIME. NO CONCERNS FRI/SAT AS RH LEVELS STAY ABOVE 35%...BUT
DISPERSION INDICES WILL BE QUITE HIGH ON SAT AHEAD OF ANY APPCHG
SQUALL LINE...WL MONITOR THIS IN UPCOMING FWF FORECAST.



EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EST THU FEB 20 2003
SAT...SAT CONTINUES TO LOOK IMPRESSIVE FOR STRONG CONVECTION AS A
STRONG SRN STREAM S/WV LIFTS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND SE
US...INDUCING A SUB 990 MB SFC LOW LIFTING NE ACROSS TN. THIS DEEP
LOW WILL PRODUCE IMPRESSIVE LOW LVL WINDS AND LATEST GFS AND ETA
BOTH SHOW H85 WINDS IN THE 50 TO 60 KT RANGE ACROSS CEN AND NRN FL.
THE MAIN VORT IS SHOWN LIFTING NTH OF THE REGION BUT A DIFFLUENT H25
WIND PROFILE AND SUB/TROP JET OVR THE REGION WILL ADD PLENTY OF
ENERGY. PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL ALSO REMAIN IN PLACE W/ DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S. A LACK OF MID LVL COOLING CONTINUES TO PLACE SOME
DOUBT IN THE STRENGTH OF THE TSTMS...BUT BELIEVE THE LOW LVL WIND
FIELDS WILL SUPPORT STRONG TO POSSIBLY SVR TSTMS REGARDLESS. EXPECT
SCT TSTMS SAT AFTN AHEAD OF A MAIN SQUALL LINE LATE SAT AFTN...OR
MORE LIKELY IN THE EVENING. BASED ON THIS TIMING WILL KEEP LIKELY
POPS IN THE NORTH...BUT LOWER THE SRN HALF TO A SCT POP W/ THE
LOWEST POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH (30S). W/ THE MAIN ACTION EXPECTED IN
THE EVENING WILL RAISE POPS TO 70 ALL AREAS SAT NIGHT.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Glad we're not getting all that rain...we'd be swimming in 33 degrees!

[breeze]

Looks like just more flooding rain for us - I doubt thunderstorms will reach as far as southern middle TN - what do you folks think?

Amanzi, I hope to see some of your thunderstorm cloud photos
posted!

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

Most of the severe weather right now is in east central TX...it will move east into LA and MS tomorrow. For the most part...you'll see rains but I dont think the severe storms will head that far north.

[Rainband]

Here is an interesting part of our forecast discussion :o :o



Saturday gets more interesting. The day should be nice...albeit
breezy (and perhaps windy) as increasing south-southwest gradient flow drives
in ahead of front. Severe weather a definite concern by Sat evening as many
factors come together: feed of deep tropical moisture...developing
990 or less low pressure system through the Tennessee Valley...excellent upper
level divergent pattern...and evening timing. Current forecast trends
handle this well. As for hazards updates...prefer to wait until
situation becomes clearer before reissuing.

Things that make you go HMMMM??? :o

[breeze]

AAaaaah, yes....JQPublic's favorite phrase.....

HMMMMMM......


Heh-heeh....!

[Rainband]

AAaaaah, yes....JQPublic's favorite phrase.....

HMMMMMM......


Heh-heeh....!

Oops, I just borrowed it LMAO

[breeze]

It's ok, Rainband - I don't think JQP would mind if we just "borrow"
it on a rare occasion!

[Rainband]

OK thanks Breeze 8)

[breeze]

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CST THU FEB 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER. THIS IS THE
ONLY HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER TEXAS THIS
MORNING AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST AS IT STRENGTHENS. THIS STORM
SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MID STATE ON
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...
MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH...LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION...BUT AT
THE PRESENT TIME IT LOOKS LIKE THE BRUNT OF THE HEAVIER RAIN WILL
MISS THE MID STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY FOR
POSSIBLE HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG THUNDERSTORMS. THE THREAT OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IS THE BIGGEST CONCERN DUE TO THE RECENT FLOODING LEAVING
THE GROUND SATURATED AND RIVER LEVELS HIGH.

***Looks like we could get a little crash-boom-bam, after all..???***

[Amanzi]

well rainband that kinda does make ya wanna say mmmmm :o

I will certainly post my pic's breeze!

wow it is so foggy out here now, i could hardly find my car in the drive way.

Well the met on the local news had absolutely no concern for any weather poblems accept some scattered thunderstorms and rain for sat I wish they would employ just one local met to give us a good in-depth discussion about local weather!