This is interesting ... haven't seen a map like this

[StormCrazyIowan]

Snownado? I'd like to go along for that ride!

[ColdFront77]

I'd say that is an interesting forecast map... sure should flip flop, but to show it even 288 hours in advance, is something worthwhile to look at as you said, Stormsfury.

[BreinLa]

Looks like it's sitting right over my house lol

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer//avn/00/images/avn_slp_252l.gif

Now look where its heading!

[Stormsfury]

I wanna see a Snownado now!

Rob, there actually was one ... well, actually a tornado formed in Utah, and ended when it went up a mountain and became snow wrapped - the white tornado lasted another couple of minutes before dissipating.

[Rob-TheStormChaser]

UT? lol wow they rarely get them in the worst months of the year!

[wrkh99]

Now all we need is a snow cane

[JQ Public]

lol now look at the map...i have definitly seen that map before heheh!

[Stormsfury]

lol now look at the map...i have definitly seen that map before heheh!

That's a warmer solution now ... changes, changes ...
However, I won't even say what the current map looks like with the 2 bullseyes of QPF ...*LOL*

[JQ Public]

lol!

[Stormsfury]

Now all we need is a snow cane

August 28th-30th, 1839 - A hurricane moved from Cape Hatteras, NC to offshore New England. An unusual feature of the storm was the snow it helped produce which blanketed the Catskills of NY. Also considerable snow was recorded in Salem, NY.

[chadtm80]

So how does it look today stormsfury?

[Stormsfury]

The active pattern continues...

Looked at the latest 12z GFS/ETA QPF's and potential ...
Eastern Tenn, Western Carolinas, and the Mid-Atlantic flood potential ....

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Forecast.html

[Rainband]

West central and southwest Florida forecast discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay area - Ruskin Florida
142 PM EST Wednesday Feb 19 2003


The surface ridge is centered off the middle Atlantic coast today
bringing southeasterly winds and increasing moisture. Dewpoints in
southwest Florida have now increased to the middle 60s. Models have
unexpectantly high probability of precipitation for Thursday. We do destabilize and a
short wave moves across north of US. But it is hard for me to buy
off on US moistening up as fast as models imply. I will continue
with the forecast trend of low probability of precipitation for showers on Thursday...maybe
increasing them a little in the north closer to the short wave.

Any thoughts on this guys?

[Kevin_Wx]

I think that it was VERY confusing. If we destabilize and a short wave moves north of Central Florida, you'd think the rain chances would be there. Not incredibly high, but 40-50% would be in order. Also, this discussion doesn't even begin to address what could be a very bad severe weather event in North/Central Florida on Saturday. I'll wait for Melbourne's discussion to come out a little later. It seems to me the the Melbourne NWS always has a real good handle on severe weather systems.

[chadtm80]

Here is the Melbournes discussion.... Seems saturday could get nasty


FXUS62 KMLB 192015
AFDMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EST WED FEB 19 2003

...INCREASING CONCERN FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT...


DIFFERENCE IN MOS GUIDANCE WITH LOW TEMPS TONIGHT. THINK WE ARE
SEEING TYPICAL DRY BIAS IN THE NGM MOS...LESS CLOUDS LEADING TO
LOWER MINS. ALSO...IT HAS DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. DENSE FOG DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY WITH 925 MB
REMAINING 10 KNOTS AND 850 MB 15 KNOTS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT FOG
(2-4 MILES) BUT ETA AND AVN INDICATE ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING
OVERNIGHT WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS DEVELOPING. WILL FOLLOW THIS
TREND...WHICH SHOULD KEEP MINS UP AND FURTHER REDUCE THE THREAT OF
ANY DENSE FOG.

MUCHO DISAGREEMENT AMONG MOS POPS TOMORROW BUT NOTICE THAT THE AVN
MOS IS TRENDING DOWNWARD...THOUGH STILL AROUND 60%. BUT THEY ALL
AGREE ON A MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT...S/SW WINDS
RIDING OVER EAST WINDS AT THE SFC. ISENTROPIC LIFT APPEARS GREATEST
ACROSS NORTHERN SECTIONS AND THAT IS WHERE RAIN CHANCES WOULD BE
"HIGHEST". IN ADDITION...MESOETA SHOWS REINFORCING HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE WEDGING SOUTH INTO NE FL AND MAY INCREASE LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ACROSS VOLUSIA COUNTY. SO AM GOING TO STICK MY NECK OUT
AND GO COMPLETELY AGAINST AVN MOS POPS...MUCH LOWER POPS OVERALL
WITH HIGHER POPS NORTH (30%) THAN SOUTH (20%). WILL ALSO WORD IT
LIGHT RAIN (STRATIFORM) AS OPPOSED TO SHOWERS (CONVECTIVE).

WE BREAK INTO THE WARM SECTOR FRI SO ALTHOUGH PCP WATER VALUES
INCREASE TO 1.5"...THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HAVE DISSIPATED ALLOWING
MORE SUNSHINE (AND HEATING) THAN THU. EVERYONE SHOULD REACH THE
LOWER 80S WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION COASTAL VOLUSIA COUNTY DUE TO COOL
SURF TEMPS. AVN POPS STILL LOOK TOO HIGH FRIDAY ESP ALONG THE COAST
SOUTH OF THE CAPE. ONCE THE SEA BREEZE GOES THROUGH RAIN CHANCES
SHOULD SHUT OFF. ELSEWHERE...NO LARGE SCALE BOUNDARY AROUND TO FOCUS
CONVECTION. SO WILL KEEP THE CURRENT 30% FOR DAB/SFB/LEE/MCO/OKE AND
LOWER MLB/VRB/FPR/SUA TO 20%.

NOW TO THE BIG STORY. STRONG DYNAMICS EXPECTED TO PUSH A SQUALL LINE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SAT EVE OR POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT SATURDAY. AVN
CONTINUES THE MODEL TREND OF BEING SLIGHTLY SLOWER (LATER) WITH THIS
SYSTEM. IT ALSO KEEPS BRINGING THE POTENT S/W TROUGH FARTHER EAST
(33 UNIT VORT ALONG THE LA COAST 18Z SAT) BEFORE PULLING IT NE. WIND
FIELDS ARE MOST IMPRESSIVE...50-60 KNOTS AT 850 MB. DAMAGING
STRAIGHT LINE WINDS WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT ALONG THE SQUALL
LINE ITSLEF BUT *IF* INDIVIDUAL STORMS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE LINE
THEY WILL MORE QUICKLY ROTATE IN MORE FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND
COULD BECOME TORNADIC.

AVN NOT SHOWING MUCH COLD AIR ADVECTION AT ALL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.
AND WITH WEST WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES...HAVE BUMPED UP MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY WELL ABOVE EXTENDED MOS GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED AVN (GFS) SHOWS MORE COOLING THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS THE ARCTIC HIGH SETTLES FARTHER SOUTH.

FIRE WEATHER...NO RH CONCERNS THROUGH SATURDAY BUT SURFACE WINDS
FORECAST TO INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AT 20+ MPH AHEAD OF STRONG
COLD FRONT. RED FLAG MAY BE NEEDED FOR HIGH DISPERSION VALUES SAT.

MARINE...WARM FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS NEXT 36
HOURS. S/SE WINDS INCREASE FRI TO AROUND 15 KNOTS THEN INCREASE
FURTHER SAT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE MOVES NE ACROSS AL/N GA.
ADVISORIES WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AS EARLY AS FRI NIGHT.

[chadtm80]

looks like saturday will be wet.. everywhere in FL



FPUS52 KMLB 191607 AAA
ZFPMLB

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA ZONE FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1054 AM EST WED FEB 19 2003

FLZ141-147-192200-
COASTAL VOLUSIA-NORTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DAYTONA BEACH...TITUSVILLE
1054 AM EST WED FEB 19 2003

.THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. NORTHEAST
WINDS 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT NORTHEAST
WINDS BECOMING CALM.
.THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN 20
PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...SOME
MAY BE STRONG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.SUNDAY...CONSIDERABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER
60S.

$$

FLZ041-044>046-053-144-192200-
INLAND VOLUSIA-NORTHERN LAKE-ORANGE-OSCEOLA-SEMINOLE-SOUTHERN LAKE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLERMONT...DELAND...KISSIMMEE...
ST. CLOUD...LEESBURG...ORLANDO...SANFORD
1054 AM EST WED FEB 19 2003

.THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 75 TO 78. NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO
10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. LIGHT WINDS.
.THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN 20
PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...SOME
MAY BE STRONG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.SUNDAY...CONSIDERABLE MORNING CLOUDINESS THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

$$

FLZ047-054-192200-
INDIAN RIVER-SOUTHERN BREVARD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...VERO BEACH
1054 AM EST WED FEB 19 2003

.THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 75 TO 78. EAST WINDS 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
.THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN
20 PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...SOME
MAY BE STRONG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SUNDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN
THE LOWER 70S.

$$

FLZ059-064-192200-
MARTIN-ST. LUCIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FORT PIERCE...HOBE SOUND
1054 AM EST WED FEB 19 2003

.THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS 10
MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
.THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 80. SOUTHEAST WINDS 10 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN 20
PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. SOUTHEAST
WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...SOME
MAY BE STRONG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80.
.SUNDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS AROUND 60. HIGHS IN THE MID
70S.

$$

FLZ058-192200-
OKEECHOBEE-
1054 AM EST WED FEB 19 2003

.THIS AFTERNOON...PARTLY SUNNY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S. EAST WINDS 5
TO 10 MPH.
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S. LIGHT WINDS.
.THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS. HIGHS
AROUND 80. SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF MEASURABLE RAIN 20
PERCENT.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS
5 TO 10 MPH.
.FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
80S. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT.

.SATURDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY...SOME
MAY BE STRONG. LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.SUNDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR.
SCATTERED SHOWERS EARLY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER
70S.
.MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE MID 50S. HIGHS IN
THE MID 70S.

[Rainband]

Bring it on!!!!!!!

[PTrackerLA]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
240 PM CST WED FEB 19 2003

SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE FNTL BDRY STRETCHING ALONG A ROUGHLY
KTXK-KTYR-KCLL LINE. FNT HAS SHOWN LITTLE MOVEMENT THIS AFTN. 88D
MOSAIC CONTINUES TO SHOW JUST LOW REFLECTIVITY RETURNS NEAR & N OF
THE FNT.

VIGOROUS S/WV NOW OFF THE PAC NW CST WILL DROP SWD & CUT OFF THRU
THU. MEANWHILE A SERIES OF WEAK VORTS WILL BE EJECTED BY THE
LO...CROSSING THE FCST AREA EVERY 12-18HR. SFC FNT WILL KEEP
MEANDERING AROUND THE REGION...MAYBE MAKING IT AS FAR EWD AS A
SABINE OR CAMERON TO KAEX LINE BY FRI MRNG. MEAN RH & PWAT VALUES
WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON GOOD SRLY FLOW AT ALL LEVELS. WILL
THEREFORE GRADUALLY INCREASE THE POPS THRU THU NGT

REAL FUN STARTS ON FRI. GREAT DIVERGENCE ALOFT AHEAD OF THE LO
CROSSING NRN MEX WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALSO
KICKSTART THE SFC FNT INTO MOTION. SFC WAVE WILL DEVELOP OFF S TX
CST AND MOVE NE ALONG THE FNT. FNT LOOKS TO GET INTO THE WRN ZONES
BY 00Z AND DEPART TO THE E BY 06Z. LO-LVL SPEED/DIR SHEAR (H8 WINDS
30-40KT) PLUS INSTABILITY (LI -2 TO -4) ALL LOOK GOOD DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. MOISTURE LOOKS PHENOMENAL (PWAT 1.5+ IN/MRH 70-80 PCNT).
K-INDICES CLIMB TO MID 30S VALUES W/ CAPE AROUND 1K. NEEDLESS TO SAY
POPS WILL BE HIGH STARTING FRI...W/ SVR WX POSSIBLE LATE AFTN INTO
EVE. WILL BE RE-ISSUING SPS FOR THIS EVENT THIS AFTN.

AFTER FROPA THE CUTOFF OPENS UP & EJECTS NEWD...CROSSING THE REGION
LATE FRI NGT/SAT MRNG. ALTHOUGH SOME DRYING WILL BEGIN W/ FROPA
STILL APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND TO SUPPORT LINGERING RAIN
INTO SAT. AIRMASS DRIES IN EARNEST BEGINNING LATE SAT. NEXT BIG VORT
MOVES TO OUR N ON SUN...DRAGGING A WEAK 2RY CDFNT ACROSS W/ IT.
LOOKS LIKE IT MAY BE DRY ENOUGH TO LEAVE OUT POPS FOR NOW. SOME
QUESTIONS LINGER ABOUT A NEXT STORM SYSTEM FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. STAY TUNED!

[southerngale]

Looks like Southeast Texas will get some action too...


SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 PM CST WED FEB 19 2003

SOME ECHOES HAVE BEEN POPPING UP IN AND AROUND THE CWA THIS AFTN OUT
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY NEARING THE NRN FRINGES OF
THE CWA. THUS FAR...ACCUMULATIONS DO NOT APPEAR THAT SIGNIFICANT BUT
WE'LL LIKELY SEE THIS CHANGE DRAMATICALLY BEGINNING AS EARLY AS OVER
NIGHT TONIGHT. AS MENTIONED EARLIER...THE STALLING FRONT/POOLING PWS
(AOA 1.3-1.5") AND AN INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT UPPER WINDS APPEAR TO BE
SETTING THE STAGE FOR SOME GOOD RAINS TOWARD SUNRISE. AVN/GFS SOLUT-
IONS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH S/W ENERGY TRAVERSING THE REGION TO-
NIGHT (AS OPPOSED TO THE ETA). SO GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING
THE TIMING OF THESE DISTURBANCES...WILL GO AHEAD AND OPT TO ADD THE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN TONIGHT FOR THE NRN (AND POSSIBLY THE
CENTRAL) ZONES WITH THE FRONT AS A FOCUS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN SHOULD
BE A GIVEN AREAWIDE TOMORROW. THE LINGERING FRONT COMBINED WITH IN-
CREASED LL INFLOW (20-25KT)/FAVORABLE JET LOCATION (LFQ) AND STRONG
S/WS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT TSRAS ACROSS ALMOST THE ENTIRE FA.
WE MAY GET A SLIGHT BREAK THURS NIGHT AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK NORTH
BUT THE MAIN FIREWORKS (WITH THE STRONG UPPER LOW) ARE STILL ON TAP
FOR FRI. THE OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW'S MOVEMENT/STREN-
GTH HAS CONTINUED WITH THE 12Z RUNS BUT THE TIMING LOOKS TO BE JUST
A TAD BIT SLOWER. WHILE WE ARE ALREADY OUTLOOKED FOR THU-FRI(DAYS 2
AND 3)...WILL GO AHEAD AND LET LATER SHIFTS MAKE THE FINAL DECISION
FOR THE MENTION OF SEVERE...LEST SOME LAST MINUTE FLYS GET INTO THE
OINTMENT. NOT TOO MANY CHANGES PLANNED FOR THE EXTENDED. TEMPS WILL
BE TRICKY GIVEN THE MEANDERING NATURE OF THE FRONT. 41/45/33