Wooaaaaaa nellie !!!!! This will be the grandaddy of them all .
Make your run to the store and get ready .
Significant Icestorm Potential for SC, NC, VA, and NE GA
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
Major changes in regards to the second system.
Tonight's EURO run has trended colder and will probably continue to trend that way ... has a 1046 mb high - so this should become a significant CAD event, perhaps one of the best I've seen in quite some time...
NC, and VA, as well as NW SC could have some potential problems with ice ... with VA, and parts of NC potentially having a serious ice threat.
Big Differences now in regards to the 2nd system. The EURO depicts a better defined low at day 3, and leads to the potential of a significant low off the coast days 4-5.
Bottom line: the 2nd storm looks to be a big hit for the Mid-Atlantic, and maybe Southern New England - there is a very sharp cut-off point between the heaviest moisture ...
There is a chance of wraparound snows in NC and even SC between day 4 and day 5.
Tonight's EURO run has trended colder and will probably continue to trend that way ... has a 1046 mb high - so this should become a significant CAD event, perhaps one of the best I've seen in quite some time...
NC, and VA, as well as NW SC could have some potential problems with ice ... with VA, and parts of NC potentially having a serious ice threat.
Big Differences now in regards to the 2nd system. The EURO depicts a better defined low at day 3, and leads to the potential of a significant low off the coast days 4-5.
Bottom line: the 2nd storm looks to be a big hit for the Mid-Atlantic, and maybe Southern New England - there is a very sharp cut-off point between the heaviest moisture ...
There is a chance of wraparound snows in NC and even SC between day 4 and day 5.
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Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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ColdFront77
Oh boy... an interesting event in the making, indeed. Severe thunderstorms are possible for the south-central United States and even into the western portion of the southestern United States, Friday.
Looking to see what this storm system has on my area, here in central Florida. The models indicating a more southward trend would bring the core moisture and perhaps the convection toward northern and central Florida.
Only one of three National Weather Service forecast offices in my area had "thunderstorms" in their forecasts.... that being, Melbourne. Ruskin (Tampa Bay Area) and Jacksonville added them, specifically to Sumter and Marion counties, respectively. I am in the northeastern corner of Sumter county/Ruskin NWS Forecast area.
Looking to see what this storm system has on my area, here in central Florida. The models indicating a more southward trend would bring the core moisture and perhaps the convection toward northern and central Florida.
Only one of three National Weather Service forecast offices in my area had "thunderstorms" in their forecasts.... that being, Melbourne. Ruskin (Tampa Bay Area) and Jacksonville added them, specifically to Sumter and Marion counties, respectively. I am in the northeastern corner of Sumter county/Ruskin NWS Forecast area.
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Friday's Weather
At 10:00 AM EST, the sky over Raleigh is overcast and some very ligh rain has fallen. Local forecast is now calling for a mix of sleet and rain on Sunday. No mention...yet....of any accumulation.
Time to go to the grocery store!!
Time to go to the grocery store!!
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wrkh99
what a mess
Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh North Carolina
250 am EST Friday Feb 14 2003
What a mess!
Cirrus shield thickening in zonal flow aloft early this morning.
Temperatures will start out about five degrees warmer than prognosticated.
Moisture increases steadily across central North Carolina and low level lift
coupled with synoptic lift suggest potential for rain to develop
over region late this afternoon. Noticed via surface observation and radar
trends in the deep south that rain occurring a little farther east
than prognosticated by the models. This trend favors the faster GFS in
bringing measurable precipitation into region after 18z. Even though temperatures
will start out warmer than expected...cloud cover and areas of rain
this afternoon should result in highs today close to current
forecast.
Warm front north of region by late this evening. Should see temperatures
hold steady this evening then slowly rise. Thus expect overnight
lows to occur in the 00z-06z time frame.
Saturday still shaping up to be mild with occasional rain. Could see
significant breaks in rain especially late morning through middle
afternoon. Thought about dropping probability of precipitation to likely but current 80%
probability of precipitation will suffice since most if not all locales will measure some
rain between 12z-00z.
Arctic boundary moves south about 6 hours faster compared to model
runs analyzed last night. Low level convergence coupled with
increasing divergence aloft will allow for widespread precipitation...
especially over the west and north sections. Low level thicknesses
nose dive early Sat evening presently a p-type challenge. Forecast
of p-type basically hinges on depth of low level cold air. Also
concerned that periods of heavy rain/precipitation may be able to drag
warmer air between 5k-10k toward surface further complicating p-type
forecast. Considering the strength of the arctic high over southern
Quebec and confluent flow aloft that will Anchor high...strong
potential for low level cold air to build in depth over area. (For
damming enthusiast...this case is definitely a classical diabatic
enhanced).
Since counting on low level cold air dome to build with time...plan
to go with this scenario based on partial thickness scheme/trend.
Rain over the north Sat evening changing to a mixture freezing rain
and sleet. Over the northwest Piedmont and Virginia border counties...this
mixture should become predominately sleet mixed with freezing rain
toward daybreak and continue into Sunday. Will continue mention of
freezing rain mixed with sleet over remainder of the northern
Piedmont and northern coastal plain. For the eastern sandhills and
central/southern coastal plain...will keep it a cold rain for now.
If 00z ETA model were to verify...may see freezing rain in this region
before ending Sunday evening.
This system has the potential to produce a significant ice and sleet
accumulation over the northern Piedmont counties. Using the surface
wet bulb zeros...appears greatest potential for measurable ice and
sleet will be north and west of a Albemarle-Sanford-Nashville-
Halifax line. This area will be highlighted in winter weather
outlook statement.
Temperature wise...expect little change to current forecast for Saturday.
Plan to adjust Sat night temperatures downward at least two categories in
the north to better fit expected p-type. No changes to Monday at
this time...may be more drizzle/freezing drizzle. Whatever
occurs...precipitation amounts should be light.
Extended...Tuesday through Thursday...
look for moderating temperatures through the week as zonal flow over
the lower 48 states spells a nice warm up for the area Tuesday and
Wednesday. By Thursday look for unseasonably warm temperatures
(~ +10 degrees) as mean upper ridge builds over eastern U.S. In
response to advancing Pacific trough into the Great Plains. Will
adjust temperatures in later periods otherwise only cosmetic changes to
grids.
Rah...none.
Wss/bl
National Weather Service Raleigh North Carolina
250 am EST Friday Feb 14 2003
What a mess!
Cirrus shield thickening in zonal flow aloft early this morning.
Temperatures will start out about five degrees warmer than prognosticated.
Moisture increases steadily across central North Carolina and low level lift
coupled with synoptic lift suggest potential for rain to develop
over region late this afternoon. Noticed via surface observation and radar
trends in the deep south that rain occurring a little farther east
than prognosticated by the models. This trend favors the faster GFS in
bringing measurable precipitation into region after 18z. Even though temperatures
will start out warmer than expected...cloud cover and areas of rain
this afternoon should result in highs today close to current
forecast.
Warm front north of region by late this evening. Should see temperatures
hold steady this evening then slowly rise. Thus expect overnight
lows to occur in the 00z-06z time frame.
Saturday still shaping up to be mild with occasional rain. Could see
significant breaks in rain especially late morning through middle
afternoon. Thought about dropping probability of precipitation to likely but current 80%
probability of precipitation will suffice since most if not all locales will measure some
rain between 12z-00z.
Arctic boundary moves south about 6 hours faster compared to model
runs analyzed last night. Low level convergence coupled with
increasing divergence aloft will allow for widespread precipitation...
especially over the west and north sections. Low level thicknesses
nose dive early Sat evening presently a p-type challenge. Forecast
of p-type basically hinges on depth of low level cold air. Also
concerned that periods of heavy rain/precipitation may be able to drag
warmer air between 5k-10k toward surface further complicating p-type
forecast. Considering the strength of the arctic high over southern
Quebec and confluent flow aloft that will Anchor high...strong
potential for low level cold air to build in depth over area. (For
damming enthusiast...this case is definitely a classical diabatic
enhanced).
Since counting on low level cold air dome to build with time...plan
to go with this scenario based on partial thickness scheme/trend.
Rain over the north Sat evening changing to a mixture freezing rain
and sleet. Over the northwest Piedmont and Virginia border counties...this
mixture should become predominately sleet mixed with freezing rain
toward daybreak and continue into Sunday. Will continue mention of
freezing rain mixed with sleet over remainder of the northern
Piedmont and northern coastal plain. For the eastern sandhills and
central/southern coastal plain...will keep it a cold rain for now.
If 00z ETA model were to verify...may see freezing rain in this region
before ending Sunday evening.
This system has the potential to produce a significant ice and sleet
accumulation over the northern Piedmont counties. Using the surface
wet bulb zeros...appears greatest potential for measurable ice and
sleet will be north and west of a Albemarle-Sanford-Nashville-
Halifax line. This area will be highlighted in winter weather
outlook statement.
Temperature wise...expect little change to current forecast for Saturday.
Plan to adjust Sat night temperatures downward at least two categories in
the north to better fit expected p-type. No changes to Monday at
this time...may be more drizzle/freezing drizzle. Whatever
occurs...precipitation amounts should be light.
Extended...Tuesday through Thursday...
look for moderating temperatures through the week as zonal flow over
the lower 48 states spells a nice warm up for the area Tuesday and
Wednesday. By Thursday look for unseasonably warm temperatures
(~ +10 degrees) as mean upper ridge builds over eastern U.S. In
response to advancing Pacific trough into the Great Plains. Will
adjust temperatures in later periods otherwise only cosmetic changes to
grids.
Rah...none.
Wss/bl
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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>076-142135-
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2003
...DEVELOPING WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...ALLOWING ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
EVENING...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. AS THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
AS A STEADY INFLUX OF COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRAPPED OVER THE
REGION...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR AND THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
STORM TRACK...THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATION EXISTS WEST AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM ALBEMARLE...TO SANFORD...TO RALEIGH...TO HALIFAX. THIS AREA MAY
CHANGE AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE LATER TODAY.
PEOPLE LIVING IN OR TRAVELING IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE
WEEKEND ARE STRONGLY URGED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.
NCZ007>011-021>027-038>041-073>076-142135-
WINTER STORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
500 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2003
...DEVELOPING WINTER STORM MAY AFFECT CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...
A DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL MOVE
STEADILY EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM...ABUNDANT GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE INTO CENTRAL NORTH
CAROLINA. ON SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 50S ACROSS
CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA...ALLOWING ANY PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN.
HOWEVER...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE STATE FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY
EVENING...USHERING IN MUCH COLDER AIR. AS THE COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...AND
AS A STEADY INFLUX OF COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRAPPED OVER THE
REGION...CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA COULD SEE A WINTRY MIX OF
RAIN...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING
INTO SUNDAY.
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR AND THE PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE. ANY
ICE ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE
STORM TRACK...THE DEPTH OF COLD AIR NEAR THE SURFACE AND
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR
ICE AND SLEET ACCUMULATION EXISTS WEST AND NORTH OF A LINE EXTENDING
FROM ALBEMARLE...TO SANFORD...TO RALEIGH...TO HALIFAX. THIS AREA MAY
CHANGE AS NEW DATA BECOMES AVAILABLE LATER TODAY.
PEOPLE LIVING IN OR TRAVELING IN CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA OVER THE
WEEKEND ARE STRONGLY URGED TO STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND
OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WATCHES OR
WARNINGS.
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-
Stormsfury
- Category 5
- Posts: 10549
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
- Location: Summerville, SC
I HAVE TO GO BACK TO WORK SO....
This is going to be brief ...
Significant Icestorm quite possible from Greenville-Spartanburg (GSP) thru extreme north central South Carolina, Charlotte, and Raleigh-Durham, NC ...
As the wedge builds south and west across NC, and SC - the relative mild to warm will quickly turn abruptly cold like a huge slap in the face.
Significant possibilities for Northern NC and Southern VA to pick up a sleet storm (yes, a sleet storm) -
Big Mid-Atlantic snows
Significant Icestorm quite possible from Greenville-Spartanburg (GSP) thru extreme north central South Carolina, Charlotte, and Raleigh-Durham, NC ...
As the wedge builds south and west across NC, and SC - the relative mild to warm will quickly turn abruptly cold like a huge slap in the face.
Significant possibilities for Northern NC and Southern VA to pick up a sleet storm (yes, a sleet storm) -
Big Mid-Atlantic snows
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hurricanedude
- Military Member
- Posts: 1856
- Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 9:54 am
- Location: Virginia Beach, Virginia
- Contact:
Latest Info Ive reviewed, and the local meteo's now suggesting temperatures in the Tidewater/Va Beach area to be 3-5 degrees colder than forcasted which could shift the heavy snow into SE Virginia, and perhaps far NE.North Carolina, with the sleet storm possibly setting up on the northern Outer Banks
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The last sleet storm we had was during the blizzard of 96. It snowed two inches...then we had about 6-8 inches of sleet. It was unbeleiveable. Awesome to sled on and a pain to get off the roads. We were out of school for 10 school days or two full weeks. We just had christmas break too so we were out of school for two weeks for break...went to school for two more days and were out of school for another 2 weeks. It was grrrrrrrrrrrrrreat!
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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Rob-TheStormChaser
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