Texas Spring 2026

[cycloneye]

Welcome to Spring. The meteorological Spring season has begun as of 00:00 UTC on 3/1/26.

[Brent]

It's definitely been awhile since I've seen so many days with rain chances

I'm still in believe it when I see it for the most part especially with the idea of flooding or severe weather

[wxman22]

Hello Spring! Storm season is here.

NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0359 AM CST Sun Mar 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Wednesday/Day 4 to Thursday/Day 5...
On Wednesday, model forecasts continue to move a mid-level shortwave
trough across the southern Plains. A cold front is forecast to
advance southeastward into Oklahoma as a moist and unstable airmass
resides southward from the front over much of the southern Plains.
Surface dewpoints across southeast Oklahoma and north-central to
northeast Texas should be in the lower to mid 60s F, and moderate
instability will be possible by afternoon. Thunderstorm development
appears likely across parts of this unstable airmass from the mid
afternoon into the evening. Moderate deep-layer shear should support
a severe threat, with a potential for large hail and damaging wind
gusts associated with supercells.

On Thursday, the shortwave trough is forecast to move into the mid
Mississippi Valley, as a much larger upper-level trough moves
through the Desert Southwest. A moist and unstable airmass should
remain in place over the southern Plains. However, large-scale
ascent should be weak between these two systems, which should dampen
the severe potential across most of the south-central U.S. The most
likely location for an isolated to marginal severe threat would be
in the Ark-La-Tex Thursday afternoon.

...Friday/Day 6 to Sunday/Day 8...
At mid-levels, southwest flow is forecast across much of the central
U.S. on Friday, as a large trough remains over the southwestern
states. Moisture advection is expected to continue over the Great
Plains and Upper Midwest along a corridor of strong low-level flow.
Model forecasts are in general agreement that moderate instability
will develop over much of this airmass by Friday afternoon, and that
scattered thunderstorms will form. Convective development will be
supported by the right entrance region of a mid-level jet ejecting
northeastward through the central Plains. This mid-level jet will be
associated with moderate to strong deep-layer shear, supporting
scattered severe storms potentially across a large part of the moist
sector. The current thinking is that the severe threat will be
maximized during the late afternoon and evening from central Texas
northeastward into the lower Missouri Valley. Large hail and
damaging wind gusts are expected to the primary threats, but a few
tornadoes remain possible.

On Saturday, the upper-level system in the central U.S. is forecast
to move into the Great Lakes region, as a cold front advances
quickly southeastward into the western Gulf Coast states, and lower
Mississippi Valley. An isolated severe threat could develop ahead of
the front Saturday afternoon, but confidence is low concerning the
spatial distribution of any threat. On Sunday, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms will again be possible in the Gulf Coast region.
However, deep-layer shear is forecast to be weak over much of this
area, suggesting any severe potential should remain marginal.

[TomballEd]

SPC must be going by Euro alone for Wednesday and the Euro/CMC for Friday because the GFS isn't seeing a severe weather outbreak in the next week. SPC are the experts. They must have a reason

I am hoping Euro is correct, it is wetter. Mid level winds on both models are pretty 'meh' so I wouldn't think a high end severe threat that far south with very large hail or strong tornadoes is likely.

[Iceresistance]

Brent needs to look at this, a bit unexpected as a hail-driven risk


https://s13.gifyu.com/images/bv13E.png

[rwfromkansas]

Awful winter overall, so bring on spring. Hoping for some rain, just not when they build our deck for the swim spa.

[ElectricStorm]

Well that was anticlimactic...

Down to just a general T-storm area for remainder of the night now and not seeing much on radar

[Iceresistance]

Well that was anticlimactic...

Down to just a general T-storm area for remainder of the night now and not seeing much on radar

Stupid cold front surging much faster than expected and undercutting the storm development

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/

Wednesday through Saturday 15% risk.......

[wxman22]

Wow! Multiple days of severe weather in the forecast for North Texas.

[txtwister78]

Bring on the rain! Definitely going to feel and look like Spring this week into portions of next for a good portion of the state.

[TomballEd]

Mesos starting to come into range of mid-late week NC/NE Texas severe. Euro still looks most bullish for heavy rain and possible supercells, CAPE is there but mid level winds 30 knots of less leads me to believe 'pulse' severe is more likely than a high end very large hail/strong tornado threat.
We need the rain down further south. Little/low end severe is the price for rain. These winds do not suggest strong/widespread severe to me. Oklahoma away from the Red River, that is enough mid level wind for more substantial severe.

[Stratton23]

And this is why im not getting hopes up for any meaningful rain across more than north texas, todays models have really backed off and or keep the cut off low too far west or eject it too far north keeping most of the rain away from the worst drought stricken areas, surprise surprise

[wxman22]

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0358 AM CST Mon Mar 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Thursday/Day 4 and Friday/Day 5...
At mid-levels, a shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
mid Mississippi Valley on Thursday as flow remains southwesterly
across the south-central U.S. An upper-level system will be located
in the Desert Southwest. At the surface, moisture advection is
forecast across the southern Plains, where surface dewpoints will be
mostly in the 50s and 60s F by afternoon. As surface temperatures
warm during the day, an axis of moderate instability is forecast to
develop to the east of a dryline from west-central Texas
north-northeastward into the eastern Texas Panhandle and western
Oklahoma. Along this axis of instability, moderate deep-layer is
forecast, along with steep mid-level lapse rates. This will likely
support a severe threat during the afternoon and evening. Supercells
with large hail, damaging wind gusts and a tornado threat will be
possible.

On Friday, mid-level southwesterly flow will strengthen across parts
of the southern and central Plains, as a mid-level jet ejects
northeastward into the central U.S. At the surface, a moist airmass
with moderate instability is forecast to be in place by afternoon
from north-central Texas north-northeastward into the lower Missouri
Valley. Model forecasts are in agreement that scattered
thunderstorms will develop across this unstable airmass during the
afternoon and evening. Moderate deep-layer shear and steep mid-level
lapse rates should be favorable for supercells with large hail. Wind
damage and tornadoes will also be possible with supercells and
bowing line segments. Some solutions suggest that the threat will
persist into the overnight period as a low-level jet ramps up across
the region.

...Saturday/Day 6 to Monday/Day 8...
Mid-level southwesterly flow is expected to continue over the
south-central U.S. on Saturday, as a cold front moves southward
across the southern Plains and Ozarks. To the south of the front,
the models forecast pockets of moderate instability, and suggest
that scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop. In addition,
moderate to strong deep-layer shear is forecast across the northern
edge of the moist sector. Model consensus suggests that a severe
threat will develop Saturday afternoon and evening, mainly from
west-central Texas northeastward into the western Ozarks.

The cold front is forecast to continue moving southward into the
western Gulf Coast states on Sunday. Scattered thunderstorms are
forecast to develop near and to the south of the front Sunday
afternoon, where an isolated severe threat will be possible.
Confidence is low concerning the spatial distribution of any
potential threat. On Monday, a shortwave ridge is forecast to move
over the top of a moist airmass in the southern Plains. This
scenario could support an isolated severe threat in the afternoon.
However, uncertainty is high at this range in the forecast period.

..Broyles.. 03/02/2026

[wxman22]

Thursday and Friday looks to be the bigger days severe weather wise.Subject to change of course. I wouldn’t be surprised to see an enhanced risk somewhere.

[Ntxw]

Many of us needs the rain, drought has expanded over the winter. Hopefully this is a sign a wetter than normal spring is on tap.



CANSIPs is calling for May-June-July-August to be wetter and not as hot. El Nino perhaps?

[wxman22]

[txtwister78]

And this is why im not getting hopes up for any meaningful rain across more than north texas, todays models have really backed off and or keep the cut off low too far west or eject it too far north keeping most of the rain away from the worst drought stricken areas, surprise surprise

Brother models have not backed off at all? In fact they've trended wetter in the medium range for areas like SC TX including the SA metro that desperately need it. The GFS continues to align more with the Euro in that regard.

Btw a cutoff low doesn't mean no rain. While it may lower a more widespread severe weather risk, a setup like the one you describe can still deliver impulses of energy/disturbances that bring multiple rounds of precip before the low finally ejects out into the southern plains where you then watch for a greater severe weather risk which may be delayed but not denied.

[Stratton23]

I should clarify rain totals have gone down in SE texas, ill believe a wet pattern when i actually see rain falling from the sky lol

[TomballEd]

I should clarify rain totals have gone down in SE texas, ill believe a wet pattern when i actually see rain falling from the sky lol

Basis for the pessimism, not much rain at all for the HOU area, especially per the GFS and its ensembles. Perhaps the I-35 corridor in SC Texas gets some very needed rainfall. 0Z and 6Z GFS and ensembles are quite dry for SETX.