Ice event for NC next weekend?

[Stormsfury]

GFS AT 00Z/06Z and 12z TAKES ITS SFC LOW AND RESPECTIVE PCPN
OUTPUT TOO FAR NWD OUT OF THE SRN PLAINS AFTER DAY 5 FRI
INTO THE MID MS AND THEN UP THE OH VALLEY. HPC
FORECASTERS PREFER A MUCH MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION AS
PER ENSEMBLE MEANS WITH A MORE EWD TRACK ALONG A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM AR TO TN INTO NC AND THEN
OFFSHORE DAY 7. THIS SOLUTION GREATLY SUPPRESSES PCPN
SHIELD WELL SWD OUT OF THE MID WEST AND NE THIS PERIOD
ALONG WITH A COLDER ADJUSTMENT OF TEMPS THIS REGION.

...CNTRL AND ERN US..
STRONG BAROCLINIC CLASH FROM THE PLAINS INTO THE EAST
DAYS 5 TO 7. TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED IN WILL PRODUCE A LARGE
ARE OF GREATER THAN 1 TO 2 INCH PCPN AMOUNTS FROM THE
LOWER AND CENTRAL MS VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLC REGION.
STILL PREFER MUCH SWD ADJUSTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY MORE IN
LINE WITH CONFLUENCE ZONE BETWEEN THE TWO STREAMS
ALONG 35N. TIMING OF REINFORCING COLDER HIGH BUILDING
OVER TO THE NORTH THRU THE LAKES REGION AND NORTHEAST IN
DOUBT AND THUS WILL FOLLOW GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN
SOLUTION. NRN PORTION OF PCPN SHIELD LIKELY TO PRODUCE
WINTERY TYPE/MIX OF PCPN WITH DETAILS IN LOW CONFIDENCE
AT THIS TIME. CLEARLY RAIN SWD OF FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL NC
WWD INTO AR. N PORTIONS FROM LOWER MO/CENTRAL MS
VALLEY/OH VALLEY INTO WV/VA/MD/DE RANGE FROM FROM A COLD
RAIN TO SNOW/MIX. LAST SFC WAVE MAY NOT EJECT UNTIL LATE
NEXT WEEKEND OR MON.
ROSENSTEIN

[Stormsfury]

This is the extended forecast discussion from Raleigh-Durham in regards to next weekends storm .... basically what I discussed last night.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...
DRY AND SEASONABLY COLD WEATHER WED-THU WILL GIVE WAY TO
A VERY ACTIVE PATTERN ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SAT
AND PSBLY SUNDAY... WITH A SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN. THE ECMWF, GFS,
AND CANADIAN MODELS KEEP THE POLAR NORTHERN STREAM FLOW DOMINANT...
BUT ALSO ADVERTISE A STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET FROM THE PACIFIC ACROSS
THE THE SOUTHWEST THEN EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. A STRONG
WEST TO EAST BAROCLINIC ZONE ALONG THE CONFLUENCE OF THE TWO STREAMS
SHOULD RESULT. JUST WHERE THIS SHARP THERMAL BOUNDARY (TMB) SETS UP
WILL HAVE MAJOR IMPLICATIONS ON OUR FORECAST.

HPC BELIEVES THE GFS WAS BRINGING THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TOO FAR
NORTH...EVEN TRACKING W-N OF NC WITH ITS RECENT RUNS BY SATURDAY.
THIS WOULD BRING A WARM FRONT NORTH OF NC... SENDING TEMPS INTO THE
50S AND POSSIBLY 60S SAT. HPC PREFERS A MORE SUPPRESSED SOLUTION ACROSS
THE MID SOUTH FROM TN-NC WITH THE EVENTUAL SURFACE LOW TRACK. THIS
MAY STILL BE TOO FAR NORTH... AS ONE OF THE MAIN PLAYERS WILL LIKELY
BE A COLD ARCTIC SURFACE HIGH (1028 TO 1032 MB) THAT IS FORECAST BY
SOME MODELS TO BUILD SE OVER OVER NEW ENGLAND... A FAVORABLE
POSITION FOR COLD AIR DAMMING INTO OUR PIEDMONT. THIS COLD HIGH WILL
HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY. RARELY DO SURFACE LOWS AND ASSOCIATED
BOUNDARIES SET UP W-E FROM TN ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS OF NC AND INTO THE
PIEDMONT. WE WILL LEAN TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY AND HAVE A COLD AIR
DAMMING PATTERN WITH A TMB OVER OUR FAR SE COUNTIES BY SAT. THUS, WILL
CARRY A CHANCE OF RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT... THEN TURNING COLDER SAT AND
SUN WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN. WE COULD SEE P-TYPE PROBLEMS SOMETIME
DURING THIS PERIOD OVER THE TYPICAL DAMMING REGION... TOO EARLY TO
CALL NOW.

[Stormsfury]

NC mountains - possible significant snows in the range of 3"-6" as Winter Storm Warnings have been issued. Winter Weather Advisories for Western NC, Foothills, and NW Piedmont counties for 1-2" of snow.

Next weekend - Monday (15-17th)

Tonight's ECMWF run only strengths my belief for next weekend...A significant arctic high forecast to be 1035 mb sets up shop in an ideal locale for significant CAD and an overrunning event. This actually appears to be 2 low pressure systems.
HPC final discussion from earlier also feels the upcoming weekend event will be suppressed further southward as well, which still may include portions of NC in the favored cold air damming (wedge) scenario.
The GFS has problems with the placement of the high at day 7 and also develops a too far north low in Kansas in this timeframe ... something looks awry here. A second low towards Sunday night develops in the GOM, and may be setting up a Miller low scenario .... with cold air damming, likely a Miller B out past 7 days ....

Bottom line is a potential significant icestorm/winter storm will be quite likely somewhere in Virginia, or maybe a little further south into North Carolina. Depending on the degree of the CAD, and if it's stronger than GFS/EC are showing (which I'm quite positive since the models do not pick up CAD's very well and underestimate even in short range) ... it's quite possible for something for upper part of South Carolina to watch for as well.