Re: Texas Fall 2023
Posted: Wed Aug 30, 2023 10:02 pm
Pow Ponder is now agreeing with what I was thinking about October.
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Cpv17 wrote:Pow Ponder is now agreeing with what I was thinking about October.
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Pow Ponder is now agreeing with what I was thinking about October.
Gotta get through September first.
IcyTundra wrote:Wonderful I am in a D4 drought now.
captainbarbossa19 wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Pow Ponder is now agreeing with what I was thinking about October.
Gotta get through September first.
Ntxw wrote:All jokes aside, there is hints of heights reversal for us as we move deeper into Fall. Remember El Nino has greater influence into the Fall and winter than does summer.
Tireman4 wrote:Ntxw wrote:All jokes aside, there is hints of heights reversal for us as we move deeper into Fall. Remember El Nino has greater influence into the Fall and winter than does summer.
When our long range guy says this, I listen.
Cpv17 wrote:Ice, post Pow Ponders latest fall forecast he put out yesterday. It’s a good watch.
Iceresistance wrote:Cpv17 wrote:Ice, post Pow Ponders latest fall forecast he put out yesterday. It’s a good watch.
https://youtu.be/0qNkFIczNVU
Ntxw wrote:The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.
In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...
gpsnowman wrote:Ntxw wrote:The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.
In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...
IIRC late Octobers of 91,92, and 93 were quite chilly with 93 having some light frozen stuff just before Halloween. I remember stading outside with my friends thinking what the hell when some wet snow and sleet started falling. Didn't last long and is the only October frozen precip I've ever seen. Thirty years ago, damn.
gpsnowman wrote:Ntxw wrote:The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.
In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...
IIRC late Octobers of 91,92, and 93 were quite chilly with 93 having some light frozen stuff just before Halloween. I remember stading outside with my friends thinking what the hell when some wet snow and sleet started falling. Didn't last long and is the only October frozen precip I've ever seen. Thirty years ago, damn.
Ntxw wrote:The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.
In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...
bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.
In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...
I was convinced we would see the flip in late summer based on some of the long range indicators in early summer, but that left egg on my face. However, I agree with the stong Nino thinking but am a bit worried about the unknown associated with the HTH eruption. Here is a strong Nino map:
https://i.ibb.co/7GbCDYn/F43-PO2-NXUAEdwc.png
Ntxw wrote:bubba hotep wrote:Ntxw wrote:The flip will happen, it's a strong El Nino. I'd be more nervous if it was a weak event (we know how those can fail.) But waiting for it can be brutal, especially when years like 1963 and 2009 (a couple of possible analogs) have some intense Fall heat.
In fact I'd probably look for some kind of freak cold snap like Halloween of 1991. Maybe...
I was convinced we would see the flip in late summer based on some of the long range indicators in early summer, but that left egg on my face. However, I agree with the stong Nino thinking but am a bit worried about the unknown associated with the HTH eruption. Here is a strong Nino map:
https://i.ibb.co/7GbCDYn/F43-PO2-NXUAEdwc.png
It's very unlikely the STJ will allow for it to stay hot in our region. However when I say anomalies I mean below normal relative to everywhere else. These days it's hard to predict cold. Summer sucks, it's hard to forecast because it's so dependent on rain and moisture, I've been egged to several times since Spring! At least in the cooler season the 500mb pattern can somewhat be more helpful.