STORM2K

Update: The Nashville tornado was a long tracked twister that was on the ground for maybe 40 miles according to some reports. Damage is reportedly significant, especially on the east side of town and to the east. So far, news reports indicate that at least 7 are dead in Nashville, there are a number of injuries, and numerous building collapses are reported.

@TxStormChasers — The death toll from this morning's long-track tornado in and east of Nashville is up to 7. Radar velocities got much stronger once the tornado moved east of Nashville - and I haven't seen any damage pics yet from those areas. Not a good situation at all.

Nineteen people have died across central Tennessee as a result of severe storms and at least one tornado that raked Nashville and the region late Monday and early Tuesday, officials said.
The storms left numerous homes and other buildings in ruins across several counties, and left tens of thousands of people without power and hundreds at least temporarily looking for another place to live.
In Nashville, dozens of buildings were damaged, and more than 150 people have been taken to hospitals because of the storm, city Fire Chief William Swann said.
At Nashville's Germantown area alone, parts of apartment and other multi-story buildings were ripped open, with bricks and pieces of roods and glass strewn about, images from CNN affiliate WTVF show.
"As tragic as this is -- and our hearts are broken -- we are certain that we'll surround these folks and we'll do what is necessary" to recover, Gov. Bill Lee said.


https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/03/weather/ ... index.html

that tornado happened with a 2% tornado from the SPC just goes to show you can't write any day off

Spring is off to a bad start already

Just read that the tornados (two of them in middle Tennessee) have both received at least EF-3 ratings from the NWS.

And the death toll has now risen to at least 22.

Texas Snowman wrote:Just read that the tornados (two of them in middle Tennessee) have both received at least EF-3 ratings from the NWS.

And the death toll has now risen to at least 22.

Just terrible to see this. Good thing we will be in the 50's when all of our rain comes through.

Jeff Lindner's take on possible severe weather-

A strong storm system will move across TX tonight and Wednesday

There will be a chance of severe weather and heavy rainfall mainly north and west of SE TX.

A strong upper level low pressure system currently over NW MX will move eastward and across TX on Wednesday. Ahead of this storm system a warm and moist air mass has returned on southerly winds to much of the region. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 60’s flow across the still cool nearshore waters is resulting in coastal sea fog this morning and this fog will likely continue tonight and into Wednesday until a cold front sweeps across the area.

Air mass is capped and fairly stable this morning and not expecting much if any shower development until later this afternoon and more likely tonight as large scale lift increases from the west. As the upper level low over NW MX moves toward the state, surface low pressure will develop near Del Rio and move ENE toward the Waco area early Wednesday. Numerous thunderstorms…some severe…will develop across the Rio Grande plains and Trans Pecos region of TX late this afternoon and evening and move ENE tonight toward the I-35 corridor. Much of this activity will weaken as it approaches SE TX early Wednesday as capping is maintained over our local region, instability is lacking, and the position of the upper level low will likely dry slot SE TX. Expect most of the showers and thunderstorms to occur north of HWY 105 where the capping is weakest and where strong lift will interact with a diffuse frontal boundary currently sagging into the area.

While wind shear will be certainly favorable for severe weather on Wednesday, low instability and mid level capping should help prevent widespread severe threat. Will limit the severe threat to areas across the Brazos Valley (College Station area) with those main threats being isolated large hail and damaging winds. Best threat will be along and northwest of a line from Del Rio to San Antonio to Waco.

Heavy rainfall will also be possible, especially north of HWY 105 where a stalled diffuse boundary will be in place tonight into early Wednesday. This feature will help to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms along and to the north. Rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches will be possible north of HWY 105 with significantly lower amounts southward toward the coast. Areas near the coast and around Matagorda Bay may see very little rainfall from this system. Most areas around metro Houston will likely average .25 to .75 of an inch.

Dry and seasonal weather will onset Thursday-Friday before moisture begins to return over the weekend ahead of the next storm system progged for early next week.

Texas Snowman wrote:Just read that the tornados (two of them in middle Tennessee) have both received at least EF-3 ratings from the NWS.

And the death toll has now risen to at least 22.

And now 25.

By the way, the tornado(es) that hit the Cookeville, TN area has/have yet to be surveyed. It’s possible that damage in that area reaches EF-4 based on the photos I have seen, which looks similar to an EF-4 that passed through the Crittenden and Piner areas of Kentucky.

Raining hard and thunder here.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
615 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

TXZ172-173-190>192-205>207-041300-
Guadalupe TX-Comal TX-Bexar TX-Blanco TX-Williamson TX-Hays TX-
Burnet TX-Travis TX-
615 AM CST Wed Mar 4 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN WILLIAMSON...HAYS...
WESTERN GUADALUPE...WESTERN TRAVIS...EASTERN BLANCO...CENTRAL
BURNET...BEXAR AND COMAL COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM CST...

At 612 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Burnet to near Lake Travis to near Spring
Branch to near San Antonio. Movement was east-northeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea sized will be possible with
some of these storms.

Locations impacted include...
San Antonio, Austin, Round Rock, New Braunfels, Cedar Park,
Georgetown, San Marcos, Pflugerville, Schertz, Kyle, Cibolo,
Universal City, Live Oak, Buda, Selma, Burnet, Marble Falls, Dripping
Springs, Wimberley and Bertram.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Pockets of heavy rainfall are also occurring with these storms, and
may lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Occasional to frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with
these storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a
thunderstorm. Seek a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.

Heavy rain is north of DFW where they weren’t supposed to get much. Weird.

Just imagine if there was actually cold air this year lol



But don't feel bad, snow is basically limited to the Mountain West and Extreme NE. For anyone holding out hope for a March snow (usually not unrealistic) the combined Euro & GFS ensembles have exactly... Zero members showing snow for DFW!

Nasty weather in Jacksonville this morning. Heard some hail dinging my window this morning at 630 and non stop lightning within a mile or so striking every 5-10 seconds. Heavy rain on my drive to Palestine on US84 - almost had to pull over a couple times as my wipers couldn’t keep up.

US287 south of Palestine was briefly shut down due to fallen trees. A friend of my coworker says she witnessed a tornado go through their yard uprooting several trees, damaging their carport and launching their basketball goal just off US287 in ACR140.

ravyrn wrote:Nasty weather in Jacksonville this morning. Heard some hail dinging my window this morning at 630 and non stop lightning within a mile or so striking every 5-10 seconds. Heavy rain on my drive to Palestine on US84 - almost had to pull over a couple times as my wipers couldn’t keep up.

US287 south of Palestine was briefly shut down due to fallen trees. A friend of my coworker says she witnessed a tornado go through their yard uprooting several trees, damaging their carport and launching their basketball goal just off US287 in ACR140.

Looks like areas south of Palestine will be getting it good in a little bit. That line moving out of Central Texas has a nice bow to it. Looks to be aimed at Crockett.

.87” from it. Was expecting more but still ok. Lots of close CG strikes. First time in months was it this loud. 6.2” YTD.

Haris wrote:.87” from it. Was expecting more but still ok. Lots of close CG strikes. First time in months was it this loud. 6.2” YTD.

Oh man, the lightning was intense! Lots of close CG strikes in my area too. I was going to take a video out the window, then thought better of it when I saw a bright flash when I was setting it up.lol

FYI...

@NWSNashville — BREAKING...survey update from Putnam Co.:

-EF-4 tornado (175 mph winds)
-18 fatalities, 88 injuries, 3 still missing
-Path and width will be determined in coming days
-First violent tornado in @NWSNashville area since 4/10/2009

000
FXUS64 KHGX 061132
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
532 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020

.AVIATION [12Z TAF issuance]...
No major concerns through the TAF period once again as conditions
look to remain within VFR thresholds at all terminals. Expect some
gusty winds of up to around 20 knots this morning as a weak cold
front traverses SE Texas. Winds will shift to the northwest
heading into this afternoon following the passage of the boundary,
and will again become light and variable this evening.

Cady

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 439 AM CST Fri Mar 6 2020/

SHORT TERM [Through Saturday Afternoon]...
Dry, clear, and relatively benign weather remains in store for SE
Texas in the immediate term with upper ridging continuing to hold
over the central CONUS. The passage of a weak cold front this
morning will provide a slight increase to surface wind speeds across
most areas this morning, with winds diminishing and shifting to the
northeast by the afternoon. Highs this afternoon look to reach
around 70 across the Houston metro, while the northern and coastal
zones should reach the upper 60s. Relative humidity will remain low
with offshore winds continuing to bring drier air into the area.
With little to no cloud cover to inhibit radiative cooling tonight,
expect lows to once again drop into the 40s inland and low to mid
50s along the coast. A shift to east winds on Saturday as surface
high pressure moves off to the east will result in a rise moisture
and increasing cloudiness. Look for slightly lower afternoon highs
in the low to mid 60s as a result.

Cady

LONG TERM [Saturday Night Through Friday]...
Saturday night the Nor`easter pulls away as strengthening high
pressure builds into the eastern states and extends down into E
TX. Subtropical jet will be active through the period bringing
high level moisture and a series of s/w streaming through SETX
periodically. Temperatures will be on an uphill trend through the
period with increasingly warm overnight lows and abundant cloud
cover with afternoon temperatures frequently near 70 Sunday rising
into the upper 70s Tuesday and hovering around the 78-81 degree
mark through Friday...well above normal for this time of year but
not into record territory. A shortwave on Monday could bring some
showers to the area more favorable over the northern counties but
a strong cap will start off the day and may have trouble eroding
over the south so have limited POPs to 35 or less over the
southern half of the area. Areas from Huntsville have a decent
chance of either breaking the cap or at least getting scattered
showers. Low level moisture remains after the s/w passage and may
be getting into some patchy sea fog Tuesday afternoon/night
potentially the threat continues until the cold front arrives
Friday. Rain chances looks slim on Tuesday and Wednesday as
weakening (difficult to time/estimate) s/w traverse the region.
Upper ridge builds in Thursday and limits rain chances greatly
over the southern half of the area though the north still has a
chance for some showers. Friday looks to be greater chance for
widespread rainfall in the form of showers and thunderstorms as
vigorous upper level trough sweeps eastward through the state.
Rainfall amounts should be a good deal more generous across SETX
and probably a threat of strong/severe storms. Of course this is a
day 7-8 forecast and is subject to change.
45

FIRE WEATHER...
It will be dry across the area today with the reinforcing shot of
cool and dry air. RH dips into the 20-25 degree range over much of
the area to 30-35 percent near the coast. Winds though should be
northeasterly and closer to 8-12 mph range...stronger near the
coast. Winds relax tonight and become more easterly on Saturday
with RH values edging up.
45

MARINE...

Some gusty winds are expected across the Gulf waters this morning as
a weak cold front traverses the area. As a result, have posted
caution flags for the bays and advisories for the nearshore and
offshore waters through the remainder of the morning. Winds look to
diminish by the afternoon as eastward moving surface high pressure
will gradually shift flow to the northeast. A further shift to
onshore winds is expected by the end of the weekend as the surface
high exits the area. Some scattered showers are possible on Sunday
night and Monday as an upper-level disturbance approaches the area.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 43 63 47 71 / 0 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 45 64 49 70 / 0 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 66 54 61 57 67 / 0 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until noon CST today for the
following zones: Galveston Bay...Matagorda Bay.

Small Craft Advisory until noon CST today for the following
zones: Coastal waters from Freeport to Matagorda Ship
Channel TX out 20 NM...Coastal waters from High Island to
Freeport TX out 20 NM...Waters from Freeport to Matagorda
Ship Channel TX from 20 to 60 NM...Waters from High Island
to Freeport TX from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

upload your pictures online

The forecast target is predicting the terciles of weekly CONUS tornado counts relative to climatology (1986–2015) during weeks 2 and 3. Possible forecasts include below average (BA; <75% of climatology), average (A; 75–125% of climatology), and above average (AA; >125% of climatology).

Encouragingly, the ERTAF project has shown some of the highest skill during periods of “AA” conditions, which could be argued as the most important category
for potential impacts to lives and property.

Further reading:

https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10 ... -19-0188.1

Was coming to post the same thing!

 https://twitter.com/gensiniwx/status/1236834379391012865