Severe Weather Potential, 4/1, 4/2, 4/3 (Moderate), 4/4

[Bunkertor]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 51
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
115 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
EASTERN OKLAHOMA

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 115 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 95 MILES NORTH OF SPRINGFIELD
MISSOURI TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF MCALESTER OKLAHOMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 49...WW 50...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON ALONG
A COLD FRONT AND DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST KS INTO EASTERN
OK. STRONG HEATING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING
LOW LEVEL WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...WILL POSE A RISK OF
SUPERCELL STORMS. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A
FEW TORNADOES. IF DISCRETE SUPERCELLS CAN BE MAINTAINED...STRONG
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.


...HART

[Tireman4]

Hey Bunk..I think things are starting to ramp up quick. Stu Ostro mentioned this...

Thunderstorm cells breaking the cap in northeast Oklahoma and getting tilted by the wind shear

[Bunkertor]

Hey there Tireman ! He micht be right. I just checked a Casercam in SE KS and the sky is clear.

I have to leave for a while...

[Ellsey]

My weather radio just went off for a tornado watch.

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 52
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS LARGE HAIL EVENTS LIKELY WITH SEVERAL VERY LARGE HAIL
EVENTS TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
NUMEROUS DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 100 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF DE
QUEEN ARKANSAS TO 15 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TEMPLE TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU2).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 49...WW 50...WW 51...

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORMING RAPIDLY ALONG A DRYLINE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST OK INTO CENTRAL TX. STRONG INSTABILITY AND
SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL PROMOTE SUPERCELL STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STRENGTHEN SOMEWHAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY
INCREASE THE RISK OF ISOLATED TORNADOES.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HART

[apocalypt-flyer]

That's some large batch under tornado watch this afternoon.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[EF-5bigj]

That is a really really big area for a watch.

[WeatherGuesser]

SPC isn't loading for me.

[RL3AO]

NWS servers having a bunch of DNS issues today.

[cycloneye]

Here is the cause of the issues.

NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH
1245 PM MDT THU APR 3 2014

TO: WR OFFICES
FROM: WR ROC
SUBJECT: NATIONAL CENTER AND WWA SITES ARE DOWN

WEB ACCESS TO SEVERAL NATIONAL CENTERS...INCLUDING SPC...WPC...AND
OPC...IS DOWN. THERE ARE ALSO PROBLEMS WITH NATIONAL AND REGIONAL
WWA MAPS. THE TOC HAS BEEN NOTIFIED. WE WILL PROVIDE UPDATES WHEN
AVAILABLE. THANK YOU FOR YOUR PATIENCE.

[RL3AO]

SPC says flushing your DNS cache should fix the issue but it didn't for me and a bunch of other people on their FB page.

Anyway

FOR AN OUTBREAK OF TORNADOES...SEVERAL FACTORS MUST COME TOGETHER.
THE FIRST IS THAT MANY DISCRETE CELLS WOULD NEED TO INITIATE ACROSS
THE WARM SECTOR AS THE LOW TO MID-LEVEL JET COUPLET PASSES BY. A
COUPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS KEEP MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE COLD FRONT WHICH RAISES THE QUESTION ABOUT HOW MANY DISCRETE
STORMS THERE WILL BE. ANOTHER FACTOR THAT COULD IMPACT THE EVENT IS
THE LARGE NUMBER OF STORMS THAT DEVELOPED ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR
THIS MORNING. ALSO...THERE IS STILL CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG MODEL
SOLUTIONS. FOR THESE REASONS...WILL KEEP THE OUTLOOK AT UPPER-END
MODERATE RISK MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR A OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
STORMS FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

Sound like they considered high risk but settled on an upper moderate due to a touch of uncertainty.

[Bunkertor]

The SPC is back

[Bunkertor]

Stormchaser Mike Prendergast has a huge supercell on his camera. Location: Near Denton, TX

[Bunkertor]

KRMG Tulsa feed:
http://provisioning.streamtheworld.com/pls/KRMGAAC.pls

[WeatherGuesser]

Storm Rain Totals a little over 4" in many areas of southern Illinois.

[Texas Snowman]

Baseball size hail in Denton.

[Texas Snowman]

@TxStormChasers: Multiple car windows destroyed at Texas Woman's University in Denton by massive hail. #txwx #dfwwx

[Texas Snowman]

Storm blowing up SW of Fort Worth. Could be a problem for DFW.

[CrazyC83]

So far not too much tornadic, but the hail in DFW area has been a big story...major damage there.

[Bunkertor]

60 % Tor with this Watch

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 53
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST MISSOURI

* EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FROM 500 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
SEVERAL TORNADOES LIKELY WITH A FEW INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS WITH A FEW VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
HOT SPRINGS ARKANSAS TO 65 MILES NORTHEAST OF VICHY MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 49...TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 50. WATCH NUMBER 49 50
WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 500 PM CDT. CONTINUE...WW 51...WW
52...

DISCUSSION...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL INTO E CENTRAL MO...AND OTHER STORMS WILL
LIKELY SPREAD INTO THE WATCH AREA FROM THE W THIS EVENING AS THE LOW
LEVELS WARM AND MOISTEN IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER STORMS. THE
COMBINATION OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL SUPPORT RISKS OF
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE EVENING.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.


...THOMPSON

[Bunkertor]

306
WFUS54 KFWD 032247
TORFWD
TXC121-032330-
/O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0001.140403T2247Z-140403T2330Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
547 PM CDT THU APR 3 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
CENTRAL DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 547 PM CDT...STORM SPOTTERS AND DOPPLER RADAR OBSERVED A
DEVELOPING TORNADO 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF KRUM...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...
DENTON AROUND 605 PM CDT...
CORINTH AROUND 615 PM CDT...
SHADY SHORES AND LAKE DALLAS AROUND 620 PM CDT...
OAK POINT AROUND 625 PM CDT...
KRUGERVILLE...CROSS ROADS AND LAKEWOOD VILLAGE AROUND 630 PM CDT...

THIS WILL IMPACT I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 457 AND 466.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...