Texas Fall 2013

[ravyrn]

Ntxw, am I correct in perceiving the front will be already passed through by Saturday morning, with skies beginning to clear and a slight wind out of the north? I am going fishing on Lake Jacksonville on Saturday morning and may postpone a day if weather doesn't cooperate.

[Ntxw]

That sounds about right rayvrn. Most of the rain should be Friday and maybe lingering showers very early Sat morning at best (sprinkles) if any, front passage may actually be Friday night in your locale. It should clear out Sat morning.

[dhweather]

Yeah guys have some faith! Could be worse...could be 100 and no chance of rain. Baby steps, let tireman have his little piece of heaven for the time being.

Well, that's been most of this summer, as witnessed by the 2" cracks all in my yard. It's gotten so bad after so many years of drought, I'm understanding people in Missouri - SHOW ME. I'll believe widespread rain when I see it.

[Ntxw]

Yeah guys have some faith! Could be worse...could be 100 and no chance of rain. Baby steps, let tireman have his little piece of heaven for the time being.

Well, that's been most of this summer, as witnessed by the 2" cracks all in my yard. It's gotten so bad after so many years of drought, I'm understanding people in Missouri - SHOW ME. I'll believe widespread rain when I see it.

It is the norm in -PDO, don't expect the rain like you are used to it is what it is. This summer for DFW has not been that bad compared to the past two. Not as many 100+ days and July actually came in below average, it was hot late in the summer (August into early Sept).

[weatherdude1108]

Would suck if 95L "gets in the way" and shuts off the tropical moisture from reaching this far north. Considering how it's been going for us and rain here in the Metroplex, I would almost bet good money this happens.

I'd bet this is exactly what happens. We'll be lucky to get 1/4" of rain.

It gets "better" ... how about this? Hurricane in Gulf sucks up moisture ... front comes through relatively dry ... hurricane moves north and hits the Central Gulf Coast, pulling down strong north winds which help create multiple wildfires across the state. Hmm ... where have we seen that before?!

Hey now! Too much bad juju in the room. I sympathize.

Bob Rose hints at a widespread soaker. I'll believe it when I see it in my yard.
http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

Can Ntxw give any insight on how much longer we can expect the negative PDO to last? Never mind. I don't think I wanna know.

[Portastorm]

What did I tell you guys yesterday?!

*****************
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
324 AM CDT WED SEP 18 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
AIRMASS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS A LITTLE DRIER THIS MORNING THAN
LAST COUPLE WITH PWS OF 1.6 TO 1.9 INCHES PER GOES SOUNDER. SOLAR
HEATING IS MAIN DRIVER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH TIMING
MAINLY LATER MORNING THROUGH EVENING. EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A DRIER
AIRMASS...BRIEF LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. LATER TODAY
INTO THURSDAY...A LOW PRESSURE AREA CURRENTLY OVER THE YUCATAN
MOVES OUT OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
THIS MAY TAKE SOME MOISTURE AWAY FROM TEXAS...HOWEVER SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL CYCLONE MANUEL AT THE SOUTHERN END OF GULF
OF CALIFORNIA WILL MOVE NORTH OVER TEXAS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES OUT INTO THE PLAINS STATES.
EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. RAINFALL OVER MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS
MAY CAUSE SOME RISES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE...HOWEVER SIGNIFICANT
RIVER FLOODING IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
WILL ALLOW FOR SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL KEEP LOW TEMPERATURES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES FURTHER
EAST OUT INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EXTENDING INTO FAR NORTHERN
MEXICO WHILE THE SURFACE LOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP. THIS BRINGS A COLD FRONT INTO TEXAS. PWS ARE
FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 1.8 TO 2.2 INCH RANGE AS MOISTURE FROM
MANUEL CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS TEXAS AND EXPECT SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO HEAVY RAINFALL. IF THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO DOES DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT COULD TAKE SOME
MOISTURE AWAY FROM SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL TEXAS. AT A MINIMUM...
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS LATE FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY. SOME
MOISTURE DOES LINGER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON SATURDAY FOR LOW
CHANCES POPS. THEN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER TEXAS WITH
DRY AIR ADVECTION LOWERING PWS TO BELOW 1 INCH. NO RAIN CHANCES
FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURE WILL BE
CLOSER TO AVERAGE ON FRIDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND RAIN...THEN WARM TO
WELL ABOVE AVERAGE BY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY DUE TO A DRIER
AIRMASS AND HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER THICKNESSES. LOW TEMPERATURES
WILL FALL TO NEAR AVERAGE DUE TO LOWER DEWPOINTS AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES.

[gboudx]

^ like i said on previous page, it would suck. Though DFW didn't mention that possibility in their AM AFD. They described a touch of heaven with moisture saturation throughout the troposphere, 1.5 - 1.75 deviation above standard mean, widespread rainfall with localized heavy rain.

[Ntxw]

Can Ntxw give any insight on how much longer we can expect the negative PDO to last? Never mind. I don't think I wanna know.

It can last for a decade or longer. But most of the time there's a little break from it like in the early 60s. I think the current one we are in started with the big La Nina in 2007 and could go to 2015-2020. The analogs that I hit for this year all hinted at a shift to El Nino next year much like in 2001 and the early 60s. If that happens and a moderate or stronger Nino appears we could probably flip the PDO for a couple years reprieve from the -PDO. I broad brushed the idea of Nino's return with Portastorm and will be interesting to follow, if it doesn't nothing will change just more of the same. -PDO can be linked to the global ACE quietness this year and really the past several years. Even as the subtropics are warm the tropics especially Pacific is dry, leading to rampant dry air across the basins.

[Portastorm]

^ like i said on previous page, it would suck. Though DFW didn't mention that possibility in their AM AFD. They described a touch of heaven with moisture saturation throughout the troposphere, 1.5 - 1.75 above standard deviation, widespread rainfall with localized heavy rain.

Agreed. You folks in north Texas are less apt to get screwed on this one like we are due to simple geographic proximity. I hope at least *someone* in Texas gets some great rainfall out of this setup.

[Ntxw]

^ like i said on previous page, it would suck. Though DFW didn't mention that possibility in their AM AFD. They described a touch of heaven with moisture saturation throughout the troposphere, 1.5 - 1.75 above standard deviation, widespread rainfall with localized heavy rain.

Agreed. You folks in north Texas are less apt to get screwed on this one like we are due to simple geographic proximity. I hope at least *someone* in Texas gets some great rainfall out of this setup.

The Euro gives everyone at least some rain. Still between 1-2 inches, GFS a little less so I will give it the benefit due to obvious reasons, I think regardless of 95L the front and trough will provide enough lift for most of us. Manuel is providing plenty of mid and upper level moisture. It's going to be a slow all day on and off rain period Friday.

[weatherdude1108]

Can Ntxw give any insight on how much longer we can expect the negative PDO to last? Never mind. I don't think I wanna know.

It can last for a decade or longer. But most of the time there's a little break from it like in the early 60s. I think the current one we are in started with the big La Nina in 2007 and could go to 2015-2020. The analogs that I hit for this year all hinted at a shift to El Nino next year much like in 2001 and the early 60s. If that happens and a moderate or stronger Nino appears we could probably flip the PDO for a couple years reprieve from the -PDO. I broad brushed the idea of Nino's return with Portastorm and will be interesting to follow, if it doesn't nothing will change just more of the same. -PDO can be linked to the global ACE quietness this year and really the past several years. Even as the subtropics are warm the tropics especially Pacific is dry, leading to rampant dry air across the basins.

Thanks Ntxw! Here's hoping for an an early 60s or 2001 El Nino analog!! Seriously, your knowledge is very helpful for figuring out what's going on! I've reluctantly accepted that I have to respect the long-term weather patterns, even if they are not what I want.

[weatherdude1108]

^ like i said on previous page, it would suck. Though DFW didn't mention that possibility in their AM AFD. They described a touch of heaven with moisture saturation throughout the troposphere, 1.5 - 1.75 above standard deviation, widespread rainfall with localized heavy rain.

Agreed. You folks in north Texas are less apt to get screwed on this one like we are due to simple geographic proximity. I hope at least *someone* in Texas gets some great rainfall out of this setup.

The Euro gives everyone at least some rain. Still between 1-2 inches, GFS a little less so I will give it the benefit due to obvious reasons, I think regardless of 95L the front and trough will provide enough lift for most of us. Manuel is providing plenty of mid and upper level moisture. It's going to be a slow all day on and off rain period Friday.

I have noticed the extra mid-high level moisture the past few days, ominous clouds with the climbing humidity, especially in the mornings! We just can't seem to get it to wring out more than a pitter patter (at least in my area), as the lakes and ground cry out for a thirst-quencher, while Mexico drowns. Cruel irony.

[Ntxw]

Euro ups the ante a bit 2+ for both Austin and Houston, near 1.5 for DFW and San Antonio. Lows in the 50s? Any bets? Wonder if this has anything to do with the revival of Manuel?

[Portastorm]

There would be a lot of happy folks around here if that run were to verify. Yes, indeed.

[weatherdude1108]

I just saw the forecast for Austin for Friday went up from earlier today. Also nice to see lows in the 60s starting Saturday night. Taking it with a grain of salt based on history, PDO, etc.

Austin Proper
Thursday - A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 92. East southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Thursday Night - A 50 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 75. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph.

Friday - Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a high near 89. East wind 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%.

Friday Night - Showers and thunderstorms likely. Cloudy, with a low around 73. North northeast wind around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%.

Saturday - A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 89. North northeast wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Saturday Night - Partly cloudy, with a low around 67. North wind 5 to 10 mph.

Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 91. North northeast wind 5 to 10 mph. Sunday Night Mostly clear, with a low around 66

[weatherdude1108]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 PM CDT WED SEP 18 2013

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
THE LATEST ROUND OF MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST GOOD RAIN
CHANCES ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES
EARLY IN THE DAY WILL INITIALLY BE FAVORED ACROSS THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU AND WESTERN HILL COUNTRY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE
MENTIONED REGION. MEANWHILE...A STEADY SUPPLY OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL SYSTEM MANUEL AND EASTERLY FLOW OFF THE GULF
OF MEXICO WILL MAINTAIN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE. DURING THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHWARD
AS A MID-LEVEL TROUGH ALSO WORKS SOUTH ACROSS TEXAS. DAYTIME HEATING
ALONG WITH LIFT ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO GENERATE SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ON FRIDAY. AT THE PRESENT... IT LOOKS LIKE SOME FAIRLY WIDESPREAD
0.50 TO 1.00 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS. AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF I-35 COULD ALSO SEE SOME
TOTALS CLOSER TO 2 INCHES. WE/LL CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECREASE IN
RAIN CHANCES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY AS DRIER AIR ADVECTS
INTO THE REGION. TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ARE EXPECTED
TO REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW NORMAL.

[Ntxw]

GFS has been trending upwards today also, lets hope tomorrow is one last day of good trends before the event arrives. FW brought back phrases like "QPF bombs" . Good times...good times.

Next week looks pleasant once this front goes by we're going to see likely a continuation of good weather (no excessive heat). Mid to upper 80s and 60s for lows most of the week which is about normal before another big system crashes into the Pac NW. A little unsure of the strength but it may be the next frontal passage, might be a little stronger than this weekend. May see some severe weather with that one somewhere.

Edit: We have Hurricane Manuel now near the Baja/Mexican west coast. This is probably why qpf has gone up today on the models as they pick up a huge chunk of it's moisture and sends it to Texas merging with the front.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

[weatherdude1108]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
459 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-191700-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...DEL RIO...
ROCKSPRINGS...LEAKEY...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...FREDERICKSBURG...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS...
BRACKETTVILLE...UVALDE...HONDO...SAN ANTONIO...NEW BRAUNFELS...
SEGUIN...LOCKHART...LA GRANGE...EAGLE PASS...CRYSTAL CITY...
PEARSALL...PLEASANTON...FLORESVILLE...KARNES CITY...GONZALES...
CUERO...HALLETTSVILLE...CARRIZO SPRINGS
459 AM CDT THU SEP 19 2013

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AND ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...

TODAY INTO TONIGHT...A TROPICAL AIRMASS IS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER MEXICO WILL MOVE OVER THE
WESTERN PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. THERE IS A THREAT FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU INTO VAL VERDE
COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...RAINFALL TOTALS WILL AVERAGE ONE QUARTER
INCH WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF NEAR 1 INCH.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THE REMNANTS OF EASTERN PACIFIC
HURRICANE MANUEL WILL SPREAD ACROSS TEXAS INCREASING MOISTURE
FURTHER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. IN ADDITION...AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS TEXAS. NUMEROUS TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.
ISOLATED RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH
AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE HALF TO ONE INCH. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

[gboudx]

Edit: We have Hurricane Manuel now near the Baja/Mexican west coast. This is probably why qpf has gone up today on the models as they pick up a huge chunk of it's moisture and sends it to Texas merging with the front.

As usual, you were spot on. DFW NWS said this in the AM AFD. I'm looking forward to this rain event and since I live near horselatitude's anti-rain dome, I hope it's able to bust right through it. The drive to Rockwall on hwy 66 through Rowlett gets more depressing watching all the green vegetation grow where Lake Ray Hubbard is supposed to be.