Area has greatly moistened over the past 24 hours with muggy dewpoints in the 60’s and low 70’s. Weak short wave along with modest surface heating has ignited showers and thunderstorms this afternoon north of I-10 with fairly heavy thunderstorms ongoing over NW Harris County. This appears to be just the start of an active weather period over the next 24 hours which will hopefully bring welcomed rainfall to much of the area.
Weak cool front over C TX is drifting southward and will interact with increasing Gulf moisture (PWS 1.5-1.6 inches) and a stronger short wave tonight to produce numerous showers and thunderstorms. Given the development this afternoon with a weak short wave than progged for the overnight period, think the area will see a decent shot at widespread rainfall tonight-early Sunday. The weak front will drift southward and act as a focus for thunderstorms tonight. CAPE is on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg and while shear is in the modest 35-45kt range it is enough to help storms organize. Think additional storms will develop along the frontal boundary after dark from Del Rio to Lufkin and in the region of favorable lift. Not sure what to do with the ongoing current activity as meso models continue and even increase coverage over the next few hours and based on the radar trends this seems reasonable.
Short term models tonight develop a MCS out of NE MX and drive it toward the coastal bend while additional storms develop from College Station to Livingston and sag southward. Not sure how far NE the potential coastal bend MCS will reach as this will be a highly meso scale event. Radar trends will be very important in the overnight period. A few severe storms will be possible with gusty winds likely the main threat.
While moisture levels are not excessive, potentially slow storm motions and cell training could yield some high totals in a short period of time as currently noted over NW Harris County. Think most areas will see a solid 1-2 inches with isolated amounts greater than 3 inches possible. Will need to watch for any type of meso boundary developing from Harris County back WSW over the next few hours that could potentially keep storms going for the next several hours with little motion away from such a feature.
I have had 1.75" in the storms this afternoon and more is showing up on radar about 70 miles to our W. Still have light rain ongoing at my house, but other areas of Houston are under FFW with flooding imminent or ongoing.
How are your lovely plants doing Kenneth?
Glad to read all is well down there then. Please take some new pics of your plants now (they must be humongous at this point).
Oh well, life happens. Thankfully I have full coverage.