SANDY - Probs/Obs/Reports - Mid-Atlantic/Northeast/E Canada

[cycloneye]

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE SANDY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC
613 AM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SOUTH OF
OREGON INLET...

.NEW INFORMATION...
TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...
MAINLAND DARE...BEAUFORT...MAINLAND HYDE...CRAVEN...PAMLICO...
CARTERET...ONSLOW...OUTER BANKS DARE AND OUTER BANKS HYDE.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR
PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF OREGON INLET INCLUDING
PAMLICO SOUND.

PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED
INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 5 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE SANDY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 26.3N...LONGITUDE 76.9W. THIS WAS ABOUT 580 MILES SOUTH
OF MOREHEAD CITY NC. STORM MOTION WAS NW OR 325 DEGREES AT
13 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 80 MPH.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
HURRICANE SANDY IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHEAST AND REMAIN OFFSHORE
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST THIS WEEKEND. DESPITE REMAINING
OFFSHORE IT WILL RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ALONG COASTAL NORTH
CAROLINA. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND ROUGH SURF WILL DEVELOP
SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. IN GENERAL...RESIDENTS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR STORM SURGE RESULTING IN INUNDATION OF 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND AND ALONG
THE COAST NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. WINDS OF 30 TO 40 MPH WITH GUSTS
OF 50 TO 60 MPH ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST...OVER THE INLAND
AREAS WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH ARE LIKELY. RAIN
WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES INLAND WITH 4 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE
COAST...LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 8 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS AMOUNT OF
RAIN WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THERE REMAINS A HIGH DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT WIND AND
SURGE FORECAST VALUES PROVIDED FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL
CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST SOME DAMAGING
WINDS AND MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY SOMEWHERE WITHIN
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR THOSE UNDER A WATCH...NOW IS THE TIME TO BEGIN PREPARING YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS ACCORDING TO YOUR HURRICANE DISASTER PLAN. LISTEN
FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED
THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE
ISSUED.

FOR INTERESTS AT PORTS...DOCKS...AND MARINAS...IT IS RECOMMENDED
THAT YOU PERFORM THE PRESCRIBED PREPARATIONS ACCORDING TO YOUR
EMERGENCY OPERATIONS PLAN FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES. IF YOU LIVE ON A
BOAT...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS TO LEAVE
IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

REGARDING THE COASTAL WATERS UNDER A WATCH...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD
RETURN TO PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOR.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

FOR ADDITIONAL PRECAUTIONARY AND PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION...
PLEASE REFER TO THE DETAILED RECOMMENDATIONS RELATIVE TO YOUR
LOCATION AS FURTHER DESCRIBED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE OFFICE AND YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY AROUND 12 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF
CONDITIONS WARRANT.

[CrazyC83]

Maryland and Virginia have declared a State of Emergency. Many other states likely will in the coming hours and days.

[anarchiver19]

The Governor of Virginia has just declared a statewide state of emergency. The bulletin said the eastern third of the Commonwealth could experience tropical storm force winds for a duration of 48 hours and snow in the western part of VA.

[brunota2003]

Here are a couple excellent links from the NWS Office out of Newport/Morehead City, NC for eastern NC residents:

Graphical HLS' (Note: The graphic has not been filled out yet):
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/ghls/php/ghls_i ... at=coastal

Tropical Page:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/Tropical.php

Their "Sandy" page:
http://www.erh.noaa.gov/mhx/Sandy.php

Lower Pamlico Sound (Craven, Pamlico, Carteret)/Neuse River of NC:

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 32
PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY EVENING.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT TO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A
GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR
DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
RESIDENTS ALONG THE LOWER NEUSE AND SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND SHOULD
PREPARE FOR INUNDATION OF TO 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL LATER
SATURDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY. PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 12 IN
DOWNEAST CARTERET COUNTY MAY BE INUNDATED.

ALONG THE BEACHES...PREPARE FOR WATER LEVELS PRODUCING INUNDATION
OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
VERY ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

OBX:

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 34 TO 40
PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING TO LATE MONDAY
EVENING. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
THE OUTER BANKS SHOULD PREPARE FOR MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING AND
OVERWASH WITH INUNDATION OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL ON THE
OCEAN SIDE...UP TO 6 FEET WITH WAVE RUN UP NORTH OF OREGON INLET.
AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY PREPARE FOR
SOUND SIDE FLOODING OF 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. DUNES WILL
LIKELY BE BREACHED AND HIGHWAY 12 INUNDATED OR WASHED OUT IN
TYPICALLY VULNERABLE LOCATIONS.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
VERY ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Onslow:

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 18 TO 23
PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A GENERAL
CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST MINOR DAMAGE
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
PREPARE FOR WATER LEVELS PRODUCING INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE
GROUND LEVEL ALONG THE BEACHES. NORTH TOPSAIL BEACH WILL BE
PARTICULARLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING AND OVERWASH.

...COASTAL HAZARDS...
VERY ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED LATER
TODAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

Mainland Dare/Hyde and Beaufort:

...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS VERY SMALL.
THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 37
PERCENT. THIS REPRESENTS A GENERAL STEADY TREND SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST. THE ONSET OF TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS COULD START AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING.

...WINDS...
AS HURRICANE SANDY MOVES CLOSER...THE THREAT FOR SUSTAINED HIGH
WINDS IS LIKELY TO INCREASE. THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT
LEAST MINOR DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE AREA.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO BE OUT OF THE NORTH WATER LEVELS SHOULD
NOT INCREASE MUCH WITH POSSIBLY VERY MINOR RISES OVER THE LOWER
PAMLICO RIVER.

That is as of Noon, the next update is at 6 pm. I know we have members in all of those areas.

[KBBOCA]

Press Conference with the Gov. of Virginia
http://www.nbc12.com/story/19924298/gov ... -for-sandy

[cycloneye]

Here is the afternoon HPC discussion.

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
226 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

VALID 12Z MON OCT 29 2012 - 12Z FRI NOV 02 2012

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE/POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS LIKELY TO
SPREAD HIGH WINDS/HEAVY RAINS AND INTERIOR HEAVY SNOWS FROM THE
CAROLINAS AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS NORTHWARD INTO CANADA...

GENERAL FLOW PATTERN
====================
A RETROGRADING POSITIVE ANOMALY MOVING FROM SOUTHERN GREENLAND
INTO NORTHERN QUEBEC FAVORS A QUASI-STATIONARY DEEP CYCLONE NEAR
THE NORTHEAST, IN THIS CASE HURRICANE SANDY AND ITS POST-TROPICAL
REMAINS. OTHERWISE...RIDGING IS GENERAL EXPECTED OUT
WEST...THOUGH FLOW ACROSS THE PACIFIC IS EXPECTED TO SEND AMPLE
ENERGY/HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHWEST. GUIDANCE IS IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT ON THE GENERAL FLOW PATTERN, THOUGH ISSUES
REMAIN WITH SANDY'S FUTURE COURSE AND STRENGTH.

MODEL PREFERENCE
================
THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER (NHC) TRACK NOW BEST RESEMBLES THE
00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OF SANDY
MAY HAVE ALREADY BEGUN BASED UPON RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY...A
PROCESS EXPECTED TO COMPLETE TUESDAY PER NHC. THE DETERMINISTIC
GUIDANCE (PARTICULARLY THE 00 UTC ECMWF) SHOW PRESSURE SOLUTIONS
WELL BEYOND WHAT HAS EVER BEEN OBSERVED NEAR THE NEW JERSEY/NEW
YORK COAST (EVEN EXCEEDING THE 1938 LONG ISLAND EXPRESS HURRICANE)
EARLY IN THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE
(CANADIAN, GFS, AND ECMWF INCLUDED) HAS SHOWN A VERY STRONG BIAS
WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES GAINING LATITUDE AND/OR TRANSITIONING INTO
NON-TROPICAL STORMS OVER THE PAST COUPLE YEARS... INCLUDING (BUT
NOT EXCLUSIVE TO) LESLIE 2012...ISAAC 2012...DEBBY 2012 IN THE
WESTERN SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC IRENE 2011 AND IGOR 2010. PLEASE
REFER TO THE NHC FOR UPDATED INFORMATION ON SANDY.

THE 00 UTC ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALSO DEPICTS AN OVERALL FLOW
PATTERN UPSTREAM ACROSS THE W-CENTRAL CONUS AND ERN PACIFIC THAT
IS ON THE MORE AMPLIFIED AND LESS PROGRESSIVE SIDE OF THE FULL
ENVELOPE OF GUIDANCE SOLUTIONS OVER THE NEXT WEEK. THIS SEEMS
QUITE REASONABLE CONSIDERING DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING.

WEATHER IMPACTS
===============
PER THIS SOLUTION FROM SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AS HIGH AS
HURRICANE-FORCE ARE EXPECTED TO LASH EXPOSED AREAS OF THE
NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES (THE COAST AND TOPOGRAPHY)...LEADING
TO POTENTIALLY SERIOUS COASTAL EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING. THE
TIMING OF THE FULL MOON AND THE BUILD-UP OF TIDES OVER MULTIPLE
TIDAL CYCLES SHOULD EXACERBATE THE SITUATION ALONG THE
COAST...PARTICULARLY IN CORNERS SUCH AS THE NEW YORK BIGHT. HEAVY
RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO FOCUS WITHIN SANDY'S WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CIRCULATION AS WELL AS ALONG ITS DRAPING WARM FRONT FROM THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND INTO NEW ENG AND ERN
CANADA...WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 10 INCHES POSSIBLE. THIS
SOLUTION WOULD MEANWHILE ALLOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWS WITHIN ITS COMMA
HEAD PATTERN UNDER THE SUPPORTING/COOLING MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
TO FALL AS CENTERED/FOCUSING OVER THE CENTRAL THEN NRN
APPALACHIANS AND VICINITY. LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ACROSS THE EASTERN
GREAT LAKES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITHIN THE CYCLONIC
FLOW IN THE SYSTEM'S COLD SECTOR. AS THE CYCLONE GRADUALLY WEAKENS
AS IT PULLS NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO NEXT FRIDAY...WINDS SHOULD
SLACKEN AS SHOULD NERN US PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS/COVERAGE...BUT
EXPECT THAT AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN SIGNIFICANT CONSIDERING TROPICAL
ORIGIN OF THE LOW.


ROTH/SCHICHTEL

[angelwing]

Has the Gov of Pa declared a state of emergency????

edit-nm, he just did

[angelwing]

NJ webcam:

http://www.njbeachcams.com/southern-new ... urf-report

[KBBOCA]

Flood-prone areas of Philly are being told to evacuate by Sunday:

http://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/news/loc ... 07091.html

[CrazyC83]

Updated the title thread for eastern Canada, seeing how it will likely be severe there too (and maybe towards the Midwest?)

[cycloneye]

Since the title of thread was edited to add Canada,here is the statement from the Canadian Hurricane Centre.

http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/hurrican ... nts_e.html

Tropical cyclone information statement updated by the Canadian
Hurricane Centre of Environment Canada at 2:49 PM ADT Friday
26 October 2012.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Tropical cyclone information statement for:
Nova Scotia
Prince Edward Island
New Brunswick
Southern Quebec
Southern Ontario.

For hurricane Sandy.

The next statement will be issued by 9:00 AM ADT Saturday.

This is an updated preliminary information statement to discuss
The potential impact of hurricane Sandy in Canada.
The Canadian Hurricane Centre will begin issuing statements on
Sandy every 6 hours beginning 9 AM ADT Saturday morning.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==discussion==
Hurricane Sandy has been moving northward through the Northwestern
Bahamas today with winds in excess of 120 km/h. During the weekend
Sandy is forecast to continue to track north or northeastward while
remaining at or near hurricane strength. Sandy will gradually lose
some of its tropical characteristics during the next few days.
On Monday Sandy is expected to take a turn to the northwest toward
the United States East Coast. Current indications are that Sandy
will move inland on the United States East Coast on Tuesday as a very
large and powerful storm. There are various factors influencing the
evolution of the storm. As a result there is still a relatively high
degree of uncertainty in the impacts of the storm.

Based on the current forecast scenario, Southern and Eastern Ontario
are likely to see the most rainfall from this system. These areas
will likely also be subject to strong and gusty winds as will
Southern Quebec and the Maritimes. Although it is too early to nail
down any specific values, people living in these areas are urged to
pay close attention to messages from the Canadian Hurricane Centre
and local weather forecasts and possible future warnings throughout
the weekend.

[CrazyC83]

Yep that is the most populated part of Canada as well...

[Peach]

I have lived in Florida almost all my life; this is a very unusual TS. Today it has gone from sunny to heavy cloud cover in an instant, likewise with wind, still one minute, 20+ mph the next. As the sun begins to set, the sky is red....Sandy is a most unique SYSTEM.

[CrazyC83]

It appears based on models I could get wind gusts to 80 mph...that means what in terms of damage?

[PDinKS]

CrazyC83 : We had 75 mph winds here in SE KS several weeks ago. It was devastating to trees - we lost 9 in our yard. The winds snapped the top halves off of pine trees, demolished softer, weaker trees, and tore very large limbs from the stronger trees. Roofs were severely damaged on some homes and barns in the area. It would be a good idea for any one in the path of this storm to do tree trimming necessary as a preventative measure if time permits...

[CrazyC83]

CrazyC83 : We had 75 mph winds here in SE KS several weeks ago. It was devastating to trees - we lost 9 in our yard. The winds snapped the top halves off of pine trees, demolished softer, weaker trees, and tore very large limbs from the stronger trees. Roofs were severely damaged on some homes and barns in the area. It would be a good idea for any one in the path of this storm to do tree trimming necessary as a preventative measure if time permits...

Yikes, and the duration would be longer here too...no one here is paying attention, people laughed at me today when I mentioned the models!

[KBBOCA]

I saw good advice from a Floridian related to power outages in the comments at Jeff Masters' blog:

It sounds silly, but based on dealing just with garden variety SoFla power outs, I'd like to suggest that people find out now how to report and how to track local power outs on both their computers and on their phones. Make sure you can make things work- some companies want your account number and in this day of ebills, who has that lying around? Some let you text in an outage report, but you have to register in advance, etc. A little time now will cut your stress later, imho. Be safe, all.

[cycloneye]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EDT FRI OCT 26 2012

...POTENTIAL HISTORIC STORM FOR THE AREA...

TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTHWARD AND THEN TAKE A
TURN BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST. IT APPEARS THIS OCCURS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN THE DELMARVA
PENINSULA AND WESTERN LONG ISLAND.

SANDY IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AS IT INTERACTS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES, AND INDICATIONS ARE THAT OUR
REGION MAY EXPERIENCE A WIDESPREAD DAMAGING STORM, POSSIBLY OF
HISTORIC PROPORTIONS.

WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. THE EXACT STORM TRACK IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND THIS WILL DETERMINE THE ACTUAL IMPACTS. HOWEVER,
THE STORM IS FORECAST TO BE A LARGE STORM THEREFORE DO NOT FOCUS ON
THE EXACT CENTER OF THE STORM. IT APPEARS THAT THE STRONGEST WINDS
WILL OCCUR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

IN ADDITION, WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN /POSSIBLY AS MUCH AS 6 TO 10
INCHES/ WOULD CAUSE SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ON RIVERS AND STREAMS
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS COULD BE MAJOR TO EVEN RECORD FLOODING.
RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED TO BEGIN DURING THE DAY SUNDAY OR SUNDAY
EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE MONDAY WHEN IT WILL BECOME HEAVY AT
TIMES. AS WATER IS PUSHED TOWARD THE COAST, COASTAL FLOODING WILL
INCREASE AND THIS COULD BE TO MAJOR TO PERHAPS EVEN RECORD LEVELS
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. THE EXTENT OF THE
COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE STORM.

THIS HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE A LARGE AND RECORD SETTING STORM, WITH
WIDESPREAD WIND DAMAGE, INLAND AND COASTAL FLOODING, AND BEACH
EROSION. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN AND WIND WILL CREATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES AND SIGNIFICANT FLOODING. AT
THIS TIME, THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR THE WORST OF THE RAIN AND
WIND LOOKS TO BE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS MEANS THERE IS STILL TIME
TO PREPARE.

SOME SUGGESTED PRE-STORM ACTIONS ARE:

1. FUEL UP YOUR VEHICLES.

2. IF YOU HAVE A GENERATOR, BE SURE YOU HAVE ADEQUATE FUEL ON HAND.

3. TO PREPARE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF PROLONGED POWER OUTAGES, MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE A SUPPLY OF FRESH BATTERIES AND A SUPPLY OF CANDLES OR
FLASHLIGHTS ON HAND.

4. BE SURE TO HAVE SEVERAL DAYS OF FRESH WATER ON HAND FOR DRINKING
AND COOKING.

5. IF YOU STILL HAVE LAWN FURNITURE OUTSIDE, SECURE OR STORE IT
INDOORS. SECURE ANY OUTSIDE ITEMS THAT COULD BECOME AIRBORNE IN
STRONG WINDS, INCLUDING HALLOWEEN DECORATIONS.

6. CLEAN OUT ANY STORM DRAINS OR GUTTERS THAT MAY BE CLOGGED BY
LEAVES.

7. IF YOU LIVE IN A FLOOD PRONE AREA AND IF POSSIBLE, CONSIDER
MOVING ITEMS THAT MAY BECOME DAMAGED TO HIGHER GROUND.

8. IF YOU HAVE LIMITED MOBILITY OR KNOW OF SOMEONE WHO MAY BE
DISABLED, CONSIDER ARRANGING FOR TEMPORARY SHELTER IF THEY LIVE IN
AN AREA THAT MAY FLOOD OR COULD LOSE POWER.

9. IF YOU NEED TO EVACUATE, BE SURE TO CARE FOR YOUR PETS.

$$

NWS MOUNT HOLLY, NJ

[Stephanie]

I'm glad that the NWS provided preparation suggestions. I'm REALLY AFRAID that a lot of people at the New Jersey shore are going to be stuck and in for a rude, dangerous awakening. Our local news radio station said that Cape May County is calling for voluntary evacuations. They interviewed one man and he said he was staying - "they cried wolf a few times already". Another one said that he didn't want to spend the money on gas to drive into PA and then have nothing happen again.

I work with people in Philadelphia that live around the Atlantic City area and they're joking about it. All I know is that I have A LOT of trees around this house, we probably will lose power and internet.

[cycloneye]

I'm glad that the NWS provided preparation suggestions. I'm REALLY AFRAID that a lot of people at the New Jersey shore are going to be stuck and in for a rude, dangerous awakening. Our local news radio station said that Cape May County is calling for voluntary evacuations. They interviewed one man and he said he was staying - "they cried wolf a few times already". Another one said that he didn't want to spend the money on gas to drive into PA and then have nothing happen again.

I work with people in Philadelphia that live around the Atlantic City area and they're joking about it. All I know is that I have A LOT of trees around this house, we probably will lose power and internet.

And Steph,I also fear about if NHC downgrades Sandy to a Tropical Storm,people will say nah,nothing bad will come.