Latest Doppler Radar: Southern Plains
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0102 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008
VALID 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...
...SYNOPSIS...
EXPANSIVE UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO PIVOT EASTWARD OVER
SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION/NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE BROAD TROUGH
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS/CAROLINAS.
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL OCCLUDE/EXIT THE NORTHEAST/MID
ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE DAY...WITH THE TRAILING PORTION OF THE
COLD FRONT LINGERING ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/SOUTHEAST STATES. FARTHER
WEST...BROAD UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN ROCKIES...WITH SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE
IMPULSES/MID LEVEL SPEED MAXIMA CROSSING THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE
FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS/ARKLATEX.
...PLAINS...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING
OF THE PERIOD THIS MORNING FROM THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SD/NEB INTO
OK/NORTH TX. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL
THROUGH THE MORNING. SOME REINTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR BY MID/LATE
AFTERNOON ALONG ANY RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OK INTO THE ARKLATEX IN THE PRESENCE OF WEAK CINH/MODERATE
INSTABILITY.
OTHERWISE...A LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY UPSLOPE REGIME WILL SPREAD
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY AROUND SOUTH-SAGGING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MISSOURI VALLEY.
GIVEN AMPLE INSOLATION/HEATING...POCKETS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH 2000-2500 J/KG MLCAPE ARE LIKELY...WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON HOURS ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS INITIAL DEVELOPMENT WILL LIKELY INCLUDE
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST MT AND EASTERN WY...INTO
NORTHEAST NM AND THE RATON MESA VICINITY. MODERATELY STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT /40-55 KT AT 500 MB/ AND VEERING WIND PROFILES
WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES.
BY EARLY/MID EVENING...STORM MERGERS SHOULD RESULT IN THE EVOLUTION
OF ONE OR MORE SEVERE QUASI-LINEAR MCS/S WITHIN A CORRIDOR FROM
WESTERN NEB INTO OK/NORTH TX. AIDED BY A NOCTURNALLY INCREASING
SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL JET /30-35 KT/...AND WITH A MOIST/UNSTABLE
AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM...ONE OR MORE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST PROPAGATING MCS/S
APPEAR LIKELY DURING THE EVENING ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF BOWING STRUCTURES/WIND DAMAGE IN ADDITION TO THE
CONTINUED THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL.
I picked a great day to go to Missouri! I saw the storm from the foothills and it was pretty bad-looking. Kept on the radio for as long as they kept broadcasting it. Very, very, very heavy precipitation was visible from where I was standing. However, I was on 63 down to West Plains (traveling from St. Louis airport), so I paralleled it aways off. I'm only now getting around to checking things.
