
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0319
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0526 PM CST SUN MAR 02 2008
AREAS AFFECTED...OK...NRN TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
VALID 022326Z - 030030Z
PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION HAS SLOWLY EVOLVED ALONG A NARROW AXIS FROM
SWRN OK...NEWD INTO NCNTRL OK WHILE NEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING
TO DEVELOP ALONG POLAR FRONT IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY NORTH OF
I-40. IT APPEARS FRONTAL SURGE WILL UNDERCUT NRN STORMS OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS WITH GREATEST THREAT FOR PURE BOUNDARY LAYER BASED
ACTIVITY SOUTH OF I-40 AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. ONE INTERESTING
NOTE IS THE GRADUAL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS TX WHERE 60F+ DEW POINTS
ARE NOW INTO THE SRN METROPLEX. THIS AIRMASS SHOULD SPREAD INTO SRN
OK OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. AS LLJ INCREASES
LATER THIS EVENING IT APPEARS SHOWERS WILL GRADUALLY DEEPEN WITHIN
THIS WARM ADVECTION REGIME AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EVOLVE
WELL AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. GIVEN THE EWD MIGRATION OF THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WW84...AND THE EXPECTED INCREASE DOWNSTREAM BENEATH
THE LLJ...A NEW WATCH WILL BE REQUIRED WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.
..DARROW.. 03/02/2008