SE TX / SW LA Discussion - Hot! Hot! Hot!

[KatDaddy]

It aint gonna stop me from grilling steaks from Perry's

Only .27" this morning. I dont see this boundary lifting N like the NWS is stating. I have been watching it all morning. The Houston Metro area will see like to moderate rains but nothing like the Corpus and Victoria areas have seen this morning with 3-8" rains.

[CajunMama]

Dreary day over to y'alls east too. My daughter is bummed...it's her birthday today. She wants a sunny day Guess the beef & pork tenderloin won't get bbq'd today here either. I don't have a covered patio. Bre???? can i use yours?

[BreinLa]

Yep bring it on what a rotten day, I think we are just gonna go pick up fried chicken tonight but your welcome to use the patio

[JenBayles]

Well, my smoker is hanging tough out in the rain with 2 beer-butt chickens and 3 racks of ribs slowly smoking their way to some finger-lickin' goodness.

[jasons2k]

Well I've definitely thrown in the towel on BBQ and we're going to the mall, then fry some chicken later

Latest from Jeff:

The overnight winner was….Matagorda County with 6-8 inches of rain so far this morning.

Flash Flood Watch in effect until 400pm for the entire area and may need extending into Thursday.

Gulf MCS has been stationary this morning from Matagorda Bay to about 40 miles S of Galveston where 4-8 inches of rain has fallen. MCS has shown little attempt since 400am of moving northward as it is anchored in a favorable low level flow regime just off the coast. Expect the complex to slowly weaken and shift SSW with time with a large area of light to moderate rain falling over most of SE TX through mid afternoon. Problems already ongoing in Matagorda and Jackson counties may worsen will addition of moderate rains through mid afternoon and Flash Flood Warnings are in effect for these two counties. Additional rises can be expected on the Tres Palacios, Navidad, Lavaca rivers and West Mustang and East Mustang Creeks.

Pesky upper low which has been meandering around the state for the past 3 weeks is located near SAT this morning and moving slowly toward the SW. Models now are singing a slightly different tune with the upper low and instead of burying it Mexico return it NNE into NW TX while weakening by early next week. This keeps the area in a moist pattern through the weekend although rain chances should be much lower. Will have to see what happens as what was suspected yesterday about the ridge gaining control, or lack of, may in fact be what transpires.

[jeff]

Lets see.

Meso vort spinning away along the western end of Galveston Island with secondary swirls noted in returns near Port O Conner and then the big low centered NW of CRP at the noon hour. As suspected and in much disagreement with the WFO boys the Gulf MCS has not made any real progress northward and looks like it will not. A general weakening of this feature can be expected through the afternoon with a few scattered storms developing inland where the sun can break through the cirrus canopy and reach the trigger temps.

Impressive rains have been right along the coast and offhsore this morning where radar is showing up to 10 inches. Of note is the 12.14 inches of rain at CRP in the first 4 days of July making it the wettest July on record...by the way it is only July 4th!

Should see yet another MCS along the coast Thursday morning as a weak trough axis and speed convergence develop after midnight. Thursdays event may be slightly further toward the SW around Matagorda Bay toward CRP where no additional rainfall is needed.

Hydro:

Flooding rains in the last 72 hours over the coastal bend and SC TX will send rivers into major flood category. Still dealing with probelms on the Brazos and Colorado in the Highlands Lake chain from last weeks rainfall.

Ongoing floodgate operations will continue at Lake Travis and Buchanan as well as Possum Kngdom and Lake Whitney for the near future to help pass flood flows downstream. Lake Whitney on the Brazos currently has all 14 gates opened passing 46000 cfs into the lower Brazos. Flows at Richmond are nearing 80000cfs which is still about 5 feet below flood stage.

Rains overnight across Matagorda COunty should push the Tres Palacios back above flood stage and continue rises on the Lavaca and Navidad Rivers. Lake Texana is currently releasing 22000 cfs.

Mother nature always attemps to balance and this is just making up for the multi year drought which ravaged parts of TX in 2005 and 2006. Now the drought is gone and the floods have arrived.

Some have suggested we should be on the lookout for any kind of tropical developments from the ongoing MCS's in the Gulf. This is possible especially if convection continues to develop in the same area and over time lowers the pressure or spins up a well defined meso low. So far the activity has been too close to the coast and mainly driven by the diurnal cycle. As the upper low shifts a little more to the SW Thursday such blow-ups may shift further out into the Gulf and down the TX coast toward KBRO. WE shall see but I would not worry much about this potential

[Tireman4]

The wife and I are having subs after a (me- a good 5 miler)good workout at the gym. I guess we will watch the fireworks on television. Lovely. I certainly hope that this mess would just ease up, but I guess not. Sigh.

[JenBayles]

So much for bay fishing over the next month. It's gonna be muddy muddy muddy with all the runoff. On the other hand, the flush will ultimately benefit the bay system. Gotta take the bitter with the better I guess.

Anyone been down Hiway 6 thru Addicks Reservoir? It was within about 3 feet of the roadbed a couple days ago, and I'm curious as to how fast it's rising. The Corps has obviously been holding the water back to protect downtown Houston, but I've endured a closed and flooded Hwy 6 and Eldridge twice, and it's MISERABLE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1058 AM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

.UPDATE...
LAST UPDATE THIS MORNING SHOULD BE OUT FOR INCREASED RAIN CHANCES
MAINLY SOUTH OF I-10 BUT INCREASED AREAS NORTH OF I-10 TO 80
PERCENT AS WELL. MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE THE NORTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF CONVECTION FROM OFFSHORE. THIS SEEMS TO BE RATHER
SLOW BUT COULD PUSH MORE ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A JET STREAK
CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
OVER S TX. SHOULD THIS COMPLETELY ROTATE AROUND THE LOW...MAY SEE
MORE FORCING FOR CONVECTION DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT
TIME HOURS. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL BE EVAUATED AND CHANGES
MADE FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. MAY HAVE TO SEE IF FLOOD WATCH
NEEDS TO BE EXTENDED OVERNIGHT.

[jasons2k]

Interesting, some of the rain shield over Harris County, etc., appears to be going convective. Might be a washout for fireworks after all. I guess this weekend we'll just have to have our own little post-4th party. Maybe if this keeps up I can snag a good deal on some fireworks...

[Ptarmigan]

I heard on the local weather news that the low pressure could move towards us tomorrow and also another model has it moving away from us.

[southerngale]

Some have suggested we should be on the lookout for any kind of tropical developments from the ongoing MCS's in the Gulf. This is possible especially if convection continues to develop in the same area and over time lowers the pressure or spins up a well defined meso low. So far the activity has been too close to the coast and mainly driven by the diurnal cycle. As the upper low shifts a little more to the SW Thursday such blow-ups may shift further out into the Gulf and down the TX coast toward KBRO. WE shall see but I would not worry much about this potential

I'm not expecting anything to develop, but I can't help but notice that the rain is still developing in the same areas, PLUS farther out, away from the coast. It may just be the diurnal effect, but when I saw more developing way out there, I thought I'd mention it.

Looking at radar, I don't see an end to all our rain anytime soon.

Thanks for your updates, Jeff. Please keep us posted, if you can.

[KatDaddy]

The ULL that never leaves!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
235 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2007

.DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR AND SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW SOME WEAKENING OF
THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE WITH WARMING CLOUD TOPS ON IR SATELLITE
IMAGERY. UPPER LOW REMAINS PARKED OVER S TX AND DOES NOT SEEM TO
WANT TO BUDGE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A JET STREAK COMING INTO
THE LOW THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POSSIBLE THIS COULD
HELP KEEP THE UPPER LOW IN PLACE OVER TX. SHORT RANGE FORECAST
MODELS ARE STILL HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THIS
SYSTEM. SINCE THE UPPER LOW SEEMS TO BE MORE CONVECTIVELY DRIVEN
ON THE MESOSCALE...DOUBT ANY SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL DO MUCH TO
MOVE THE LOW. GIVEN THE GFS TENDENCY TO PLACE THE UPPER LOW WHERE
CONVECTION OCCURS...THIS MAY BE THE SOLUTION TO GO WITH FOR THE
FORECAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS SUCH...THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES WERE INCREASED FOR TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS WELL ON
FRIDAY. POSSIBLE THAT HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED ON FRIDAY IF THE
UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MEANDER OVER MUCH OF TX. DEEP MOISTURE
REMAINS IN PLACE WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES ABOVE 2 INCHES ACROSS
THE AREA. LOOKS LIKE THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS
WELL. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WAS EXTENDED TO 23Z THU GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAINFALL RATES
OF AN INCH OR MORE AN HOUR WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING GIVEN ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS THROUGH THE LAST WEEK.
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW AND EVEN FRIDAY LOOK TO BE BELOW NORMAL
GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER AND RAIN.

EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BIT MORE CONVOLUTED SINCE THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY SURROUNDING THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW. SHOULD
THE UPPER LOW STICK AROUND WHICH IS POSSIBLE...RAIN CHANCES WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR NOW...LONGER RANGE
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW WEAKENING WHICH WILL LOWER RAIN CHANCES
TO THE TYPICAL 20-30 PERCENT OF AFTERNOON STORMS. STILL THE GFS
IS QUITE CONTENT TO KEEP THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES AND FOUR CORNERS REGION INTO NEXT WEEK. WEAK NW FLOW
ALOFT MAY ALLOW FOR A SHORTWAVE TO BECOME CUTOFF AGAIN OVER TX.
SUSPECT THIS PATTERN MAY STICK AROUND FOR NEXT WEEK WHICH WOULD
SUGGEST HIGHER POPS WILL BE POSSIBLE. FOR NOW MAINLY 30 PERCENT
RAIN CHANCES LOOK REASONABLE GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE
FORECAST. GIVEN LESS CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND
BACK TO NORMAL WITH HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S.

[CajunMama]

The rain is gone, the sun is out and it feels like 7897924343% humidity! Still will wait till this weekend to bbq. Heading out to the country club for their bbq.

[jasons2k]

Yeah, the rain cleared away from here too. At least I'll get to set off the fireworks tonight

[Normandy]

Ouch.
ULL is backing NNE it seems per radar....might be a close call for the fireworks tonight...

[JenBayles]

Yeah, looks like the pipeline is loaded again down in S TX and aiming for the upper TX coast. We in most of Houston dodged a big bullet today. Hope we can dodge the next round.

By the way.... I got rave reviews on the ribs & beer butt chicken today.

[CajunMama]

Plenty of time for those fireworks in houston. That rain should take a while to get to you. So enjoy your fireworks!

[JenBayles]

I'm too old to enjoy them any more. I get more worried about fires and kids "putting their eyes out!" Then there's my poor dogs who just shake in terror when they all get going. We are in an unincorporated area that allows fireworks, and people just go nuts with them out here. Too many fires to count over the years due to bottle rockets; and nobody ever sweeps up their mess so all that crap just goes right down the storm drains and clogs them up. OMG - I just realized.... I'VE TURNED INTO MY MOTHER!!!

[CajunMama]

LOL MamaJen err...i mean JenBayles! Boy is nice not being in a drought and not having to worry about grassfires.

[wxman22]

Look at the system in the Gulf...

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html