Texas Summer 2022

[Ntxw]

HRRR, draw an outline of Texas with rainfall tonight lol

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2022061000/024/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

It's as if there's some kind of barrier *cough* cockroach ridge *cough* impenetrable wall or dome of some sort .

[bubba hotep]

The Euro Weeklies that were mentioned on the last page:

[captainbarbossa19]

Latest Euro Weeklies largely keep the ridge over our area for the next 45 days. So depressing. I'm thinking a 2011 redux this summer. Unless we can get lucky with a weak tropical system.

I'm taking it week by week. While the current pattern supports continued ridging, models also have a tendency to overextend patterns. I call it model laziness, but others call it a type of feedback issue. It's all how you look at it. Hehe!

[cstrunk]

I woke up, looked at radar, and yep - the MCS is placed almost exactly how the models have predicted over the last 2 days.

[gpsnowman]

I woke up, looked at radar, and yep - the MCS is placed almost exactly how the models have predicted over the last 2 days.

Me too. Looked at radar around 6 before falling asleep again. Sad but true. All we get yet again are outflow clouds and wind. Oh well it should help keep temps down a bit today.

[cstrunk]

I woke up, looked at radar, and yep - the MCS is placed almost exactly how the models have predicted over the last 2 days.

Me too. Looked at radar around 6 before falling asleep again. Sad but true. All we get yet again are outflow clouds and wind. Oh well it should help keep temps down a bit today.

It's actually building a bit further south than earlier, it will be a close call for Longview but I still expect us to miss out on anything substantial. Hope I'm wrong!

[Ntxw]

Clouds have kept it cooler at DFW this morning. Last of it though. Had a refreshing walk.

Next weekend coming into view and upper pattern is looking like hotter than this weekend.

[captainbarbossa19]

Clouds have kept it cooler at DFW this morning. Last of it though. Had a refreshing walk.

Next weekend coming into view and upper pattern is looking like hotter than this weekend.

https://i.imgur.com/gSl8S0j.png

It's rather strange that the worst heat is expected to be centered over the South and Southeast. Usually ridges love to establish over drought-stricken areas, not areas that have been receiving rain.

[Ntxw]

Clouds have kept it cooler at DFW this morning. Last of it though. Had a refreshing walk.

Next weekend coming into view and upper pattern is looking like hotter than this weekend.

https://i.imgur.com/gSl8S0j.png

It's rather strange that the worst heat is expected to be centered over the South and Southeast. Usually ridges love to establish over drought-stricken areas, not areas that have been receiving rain.

It will be hotter over Texas. Humidity is what the criteria is over the SE. Any way you look at it, unusually strong early ridge meandering SW to SC to SE. It's not going to be physically hotter in New Orleans than say San Antonio from their forecasts.

Mid and Upper ridges move around, but the lower thermal ridges is in the favored dry regions as you can see at 850mb and lower. It's been sitting over central and SW Texas since about mid May.

[Ntxw]

It's been a minute but here is the latest national soil moisture depictions from a reliable source. There are two maps, one is the short term top layer which reflects well the past month's rainfall patterns. The other is the deeper, thicker layer below that reflect long term effects. Several more months of wet conditions are needed to change the deep layer, the top layer is highly dependent on short term rainfall.





https://www.drought.gov/topics/soil-moisture

[cstrunk]

I woke up, looked at radar, and yep - the MCS is placed almost exactly how the models have predicted over the last 2 days.

Me too. Looked at radar around 6 before falling asleep again. Sad but true. All we get yet again are outflow clouds and wind. Oh well it should help keep temps down a bit today.

It's actually building a bit further south than earlier, it will be a close call for Longview but I still expect us to miss out on anything substantial. Hope I'm wrong!

Well I got lucky. Storms built far enough south/west that we were able to get some rain in Longview. Two separate cells passed over (albeit quickly) and I ended up with 0.36" at my house.

[gpsnowman]

You can tell the ridge is flexing it's muscle. Yesterday although still hot was much more humid with partly cloudy skies most of the day. Today, not a cloud in the sky and a bit hotter. And the cicadas are chirping away big time. Wake me in September.

[Cpv17]

You can tell the ridge is flexing it's muscle. Yesterday although still hot was much more humid with partly cloudy skies most of the day. Today, not a cloud in the sky and a bit hotter. And the cicadas are chirping away big time. Wake me in September.

September and October will still be scorching hot. Wake me up in November.

[weatherdude1108]

Man, it's like we're in a bad dream.

Wake me up when when it's over.


Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
208 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 206 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

Updated to correct the Heat Advisory time in the
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES section below.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

Some fair cumulus are present this afternoon mainly across the
Coastal Plains. Also, the latest GOES 16 visible satellite images
show a weak outflow pushing down the northern part of the Hill
Country associated with the MCV moving across east Texas and
northwest Louisiana. Other than that, the topic for the rest of today
is the heat. Temperatures will continue to warm for the rest of this
afternoon to reach the upper 90s across the Hill Country and up to
104 degrees along the Rio Grande and Coastal Plains.

A Heat Advisory is in effect for portions of the Hill Country, the I-
35 corridor and the Coastal Plains through 7 PM this evening. The
hot and dry weather conditions continue tonight into Saturday.
Overnight lows in the 70s are expected across South Central Texas.

For Saturday, the subtropical high pressure ridge over the southwest
region is forecast to push to the east and promote even hotter
conditions across our CWA. Saturday`s highs are forecast to range
from 100 to 108 degrees. With that said, we have opted to issue a
Heat Advisory for the entire area for Saturday afternoon and early
evening. There may be a few locations not meeting the Heat Advisory
criteria and on the other hand, a few locations could be flirting
with Excessive Heat Warning criteria. Therefore, to capture the main
message of the dangerous heat, a Heat Advisory for the entire area
brings that awareness for the short term period.

Another warm night is in store for Saturday with lows in the 70s.
Unfortunately, the heat continues into the long forecast period. See
below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Fri Jun 10 2022

The heat looks to peak on Sunday across the region as the center of
the 500mb high expands just north of the area. NAEFS mean 850mb
temperatures are in the 97-99th percentile for this time of year over
portions of the CWA. From a messaging standpoint, and the fact that
it`s the weekend and more people outdoors, we will be extending the
Heat Advisory all the way through Sunday given the high confidence.
There is a possibility portions of the CWA, near the I-35 corridor,
could be close to Excessive Heat Warning criteria Sunday. We will
re-visit that potential headline in tomorrow`s package.

The center of the 500mb ridge does slide east into the Tennessee
Valley on Monday and amplifies Tuesday and Wednesday. Heights
fall over South Central Texas during this time and a weak inverted
500mb trough is forecast to slide westward into the region. Max
temperatures Monday through Wednesday do look to back off a couple of
degrees each day, but still hot and well above averages for this
time of year.

There are some indications in the global models of some spotty QPF
the middle to latter portion of the week, however confidence is too
low to mention in the official forecast at this time.

Two few other items...fire weather conditions may become elevated to
near-critical over the weekend and into early next week as the hot
conditions continue to dry fuels out, minimum RH values in the teens
and 20s are forecast, and wind speeds increase. Also, we are tracking
an expansive Saharan Dust Plume from the Yucatan all the way back to
Africa. Model guidance indicates the leading edge of this plume
arriving into South Central Texas Sunday morning, and persisting
through the week. This could lead to hazy conditions, along with
vivid sunsets/sunrises and a milk-white appearance to the sky in the
middle of the day.

[Tireman4]

[quote="Ntxw"]It's been a minute but here is the latest national soil moisture depictions from a reliable source. There are two maps, one is the short term top layer which reflects well the past month's rainfall patterns. The other is the deeper, thicker layer below that reflect long term effects. Several more months of wet conditions are needed to change the deep layer, the top layer is highly dependent on short term rainfall.

Since you are our long range expert, do you see any signs of relief from this High Pressure? This cannot be shades of the year we do not speak about. ( at least we have soils that are not as bad as that year)

[Ntxw]

It's been a minute but here is the latest national soil moisture depictions from a reliable source. There are two maps, one is the short term top layer which reflects well the past month's rainfall patterns. The other is the deeper, thicker layer below that reflect long term effects. Several more months of wet conditions are needed to change the deep layer, the top layer is highly dependent on short term rainfall.

Since you are our long range expert, do you see any signs of relief from this High Pressure? This cannot be shades of the year we do not speak about. ( at least we have soils that are not as bad as that year)

Unfortunately there isn't an outside force to change the long term pattern. Wish I had better news. (El Nino, MJO, Blocking, Strat changes, PDO shift...anything) etc. If it were occurring now we'd see the relief a month or two down the road. This has been my question since early Spring, what outside of the natural seasonal variability has changed? If it occurs a month or two down the road we're looking at Fall. The past couple of years I wasn't bullish on the hot summers despite La Nina because the long term rainfall at the time were still good as well as PDO weak enough to help out. PDO and SOI have a good correlation to summers and both are against us now.

[Tireman4]

It's been a minute but here is the latest national soil moisture depictions from a reliable source. There are two maps, one is the short term top layer which reflects well the past month's rainfall patterns. The other is the deeper, thicker layer below that reflect long term effects. Several more months of wet conditions are needed to change the deep layer, the top layer is highly dependent on short term rainfall.

Since you are our long range expert, do you see any signs of relief from this High Pressure? This cannot be shades of the year we do not speak about. ( at least we have soils that are not as bad as that year)

Unfortunately there isn't an outside force to change the long term pattern. Wish I had better news. (El Nino, MJO, Blocking, Strat changes, PDO shift...anything) etc. If it were occurring now we'd see the relief a month or two down the road. This has been my question since early Spring, what outside of the natural seasonal variability has changed? If it occurs a month or two down the road we're looking at Fall. The past couple of years I wasn't bullish on the hot summers despite La Nina because the long term rainfall at the time were still good as well as PDO weak enough to help out. PDO and SOI have a good correlation to summers and both are against us now.

Ughh. Great..LOL...I have to work an outdoor swim meet ( officiate..) from 7:30 to 2:15 pm in Houston. Sigh...and next weekend could even be more brutal..LOL...at least that swim meet is inside...LOL

[bubba hotep]

EPS with an uptick in Gulf action. This is our last best chance to get some relief in Texas from the oncoming heatwave.

[Cpv17]

Unfortunately there isn't an outside force to change the long term pattern. Wish I had better news. (El Nino, MJO, Blocking, Strat changes, PDO shift...anything) etc. If it were occurring now we'd see the relief a month or two down the road. This has been my question since early Spring, what outside of the natural seasonal variability has changed? If it occurs a month or two down the road we're looking at Fall. The past couple of years I wasn't bullish on the hot summers despite La Nina because the long term rainfall at the time were still good as well as PDO weak enough to help out. PDO and SOI have a good correlation to summers and both are against us now.

Ughh. Great..LOL...I have to work an outdoor swim meet ( officiate..) from 7:30 to 2:15 pm in Houston. Sigh...and next weekend could even be more brutal..LOL...at least that swim meet is inside...LOL

Hell you need to jump in the pool yourself

[HockeyTx82]

My home thermometer just hit 100....... had an alert on my phone