Texas Spring 2016

[vbhoutex]

The winds are howling from the SE. 22 MPH with gusts near 30. I mean howling in Humble. I had my battery die today and took it to get warrantied out at Firestone. I am walking across the parking lot and the gusts are moving me...this is some wind. This may not be good for the folks in Central Texas...

Storms erupting in central TX already with damage reported. This is A VERY STRONG AND POTENT SYSTEM WITH ALL MODES OF WEATHER ON THE TABLE FOR MOST OF TEXAS!! Some showers already affecting the Houston metro. Heavy moisture feed off the GOM and we are just getting started.

[Brent]

It just hit here... not nearly as much wind as I was expecting. I think it was windier last night.

[gboudx]

Hitting me in Rockwall right now. Standing outside I could hear the wind and rain roaring in; moving fast.

[Texas Snowman]

Now the question around DFW is does this morning's storm complex stabilize things?

[Ntxw]

The bottom portion of the MCS across the metroplex isnt moving like the upper portion. Storms embedded are moving NNE got to watch for training

[Texas Snowman]

Apparent tornado in Tolar, not much question from the video that is circulating on Twitter. Looks like it hit a trailer park, fortunately no injuries reported so far.

Also a lot of damage in Stephenville, another possible tornado.

[Texas Snowman]

@BrianJamesNBC5 -- Visible satellite loop shows the storms rolling thru N TX and the clearing taking place farther west. #dfwwx

@DavidFinfrock -- Clearing is NOT good. If it stays overcast, the threat of severe weather this afternoon is much reduced.

[Texas Snowman]

@MHernandezWFAA -- This is Jacks Trailer Park in Hood Co. 2 people hospitalized, 17 of 22 homes damaged or destroyed #wfaaweather #wxtx

[Tireman4]

From HGX AFD this morning:

31
FXUS64 KHGX 081559
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
959 AM CST TUE MAR 8 2016

.UPDATE...
SHOWERS SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA SO HAVE INCREASED RAIN CHANCES.
APPEARS THAT A WINDOW FOR SEVERE WEATHER (PRIMARY THREAT TORNADIC)
WILL MATERIALIZE THIS AFTERNOON MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
BRENHAM TO HUMBLE TO LIBERTY. FAVORABLE AREA FOR LIFT AND WITH THE
HEATING THAT IS ALREADY GETTING UNDERWAY AND FORECAST TEMPERATURES
IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WILL SEE CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN
INSTABILITY AND A DECREASE IN CAP...HAVE ALREADY HAD ONE STORM
MOVE THROUGH HOUSTON THAT GOT PAST THE CAP.

OVERNIGHT IS WHEN THE STORMS SHOULD REALLY GET GOING ACROSS THE
AREA. VERY HIGH FLASH FLOOD THREAT AND EXPECTING 2 DAY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 7 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS NEAR 12
INCHES. DANGEROUS FLASH FLOOD THREAT OVERNIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
THROUGH NOON. THIS WIDESPREAD RAINFALL WILL ALSO DRIVE UP RIVER
LEVELS AND HAVE CONCERNS THAT MODERATE OR GREATER FLOODING WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS TRINITY RIVER ESPECIALLY BELOW LAKE LIVINGSTON
AND EAST OF LAKE LIVINGSTON. SOME OF THE NORTHERN BAYOUS OF HARRIS
COUNTY AND RIVERS IN MONTGOMERY COUNTY AS WELL.

MARINE ON TRACK WITH WINDS INCREASING AND GALE WARNING. SEAS
BUILDING TO 7-9 FEET NEARSHORE AND 10-13 FEET OFFSHORE.


WILL BE RESCHEDULING THE 3 SKYWARN SESSIONS ANGLETON/BRYAN
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH THE ONGOING/EXPECTED WEATHER.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The HRRR is now in range of the overnight ramp up of storms. Currently its showing a big build up of storms over houston that pushes east, then overnight a boundary sets up with VERY heavy rain just to the NW of the metroplex that stalls out till the end of the run. This could be trouble.

[PTrackerLA]

12z Euro has over 18" of rain falling in the golden triangle area of SE Texas just in the next 48 hours...

[wxman57]

Here's a plot of the 12Z EC. I started the precip contours at 2" with 1" intervals. About 4-6" for Austin, 3-5" San Antonio, 6-8" D-FW and quite a gradient across Harris County from NW-SE. Less than 2" in NW Harris County but 10-11" in SE Harris County.

[Ntxw]

Talk about localized at DFW and Austin, Im guessing as the ULL heads north from MX whatever sits around will do that on the backside of the low

[gboudx]

Update from jeff:

SPC has issued a Tornado Watch for all counties north of I-10 until 600pm.

Short wave moving across N TX currently with gradual enhancement of low level veering wind profiles over SE TX north of I-10. Air mass is becoming increasing unstable and radar trends along with visible images show gradual increase in convective elements north of I-10. Storms are showing increasing potential to acquire low level rotation and tornado production. Think the main tornado threat will be across Polk, San Jacinto, and Liberty Counties where greatest shear and highest storm development is likely.

Attention will turn toward the west by late afternoon as strong lift moves out of MX and likely begins to activate more widespread severe weather.

Se no need at this time to tweak rainfall totals and parameters still pointing toward a significant excessive rainfall and flash flood event tonight into Wednesday.

[PineyWoods]

What a storm here in Athens. Haven't seen this kind of rain and wind in a while. We were under a tornado warning for Henderson county just a little while ago.
Hope it slows down for the drive back to Tyler this afternoon. Stay safe out there.

[WeatherNewbie]

Definitely looks to be clearing out west. When and where should we be looking for round 2?

[jasons2k]

It's 90F in Cotulla...lots of fuel for later...

[Texas Snowman]

Big lone cell blowing up near Goldthwaite

[Tireman4]

Definitely looks to be clearing out west. When and where should we be looking for round 2?

Attention will turn toward the west by late afternoon as strong lift moves out of MX and likely begins to activate more widespread severe weather.

[Texas Snowman]

From North Texas storm chaser Erik Burns about a half hour ago on Facebook:

"Short term model guidance, visible satellite and surface obs are pointing to initiation near the Goldthwaite area along the outflow boundary produced from this mornings convection. Updraft helicity noted in graphic below. Duration and sustenance is in question regarding the quality of airmass that will be in place ahead of the storms that fire in that region."