Texas Spring-2015

[WeatherNewbie]

Looks like they just punched through the cap west of Fort Worth.

[TarrantWx]

Cell in NE Parker/NW Tarrant appears to be quickly acquiring supercellular characteristics. From my work at 820 and 35W I can see inflow into the storm and a lowering well off in the distance. I can't tell if it's rotating or not but it's definitely in the right place to be a wall cloud. Warning states tennis ball sized hail. If there is some kind of boundary laying around this could be a nasty storm for the northern burbs.

[TheProfessor]

Looks like that storm just took a right turn towards me in Southlake

[TheProfessor]

lol Storm just went poof right over me, must've been the cap, still got some decent rain though

[Ralph's Weather]

Just missed a severe storm at my place in Hideaway a bit ago.

[dhweather]

I could see the storms in Canton / Wills Point last night as the sun started going down, 30 miles east of me. Updraft was impressive, just starting to get the infamous anvil shape as I lost daylight and could not see it any more.

[South Texas Storms]

The long range models have been consistently indicating that a wet weather pattern will arrive for much of the first half of April across Texas (especially the eastern half of the state). April could turn out to be quite a wet month if the models verify. I really hope so!

[Tireman4]

The long range models have been consistently indicating that a wet weather pattern will arrive for much of the first half of April across Texas (especially the eastern half of the state). April could turn out to be quite a wet month if the models verify. I really hope so!

Cooler Summer..more humid..but cooler...

[weatherdude1108]

The long range models have been consistently indicating that a wet weather pattern will arrive for much of the first half of April across Texas (especially the eastern half of the state). April could turn out to be quite a wet month if the models verify. I really hope so!

Cooler Summer..more humid..but cooler...

I am all FOR a wet and cooler April (and Spring for that matter). Would be a nice change from the last several Springs, at least since 2011. Plus, we could wash most of this pollen out of the air.

It has been miserable here lately with green coating everything from cars to patio furniture, causing itchy eyes, throat, etc. in a lot of people. I am fine so far, but with the constant breeze and lime-green coatings, kind of a drag. Had all that rain in the Winter, then the Oak trees, etc. went crazy with their stuff, as the rain "faucet" has shut off for the last couple weeks.

[dhweather]

The long range models have been consistently indicating that a wet weather pattern will arrive for much of the first half of April across Texas (especially the eastern half of the state). April could turn out to be quite a wet month if the models verify. I really hope so!

That would be REALLY nice. As noted, washing the pollen out would be super handy right now, I'm dying!!!

[dhweather]

From this mornings FWD AFD

AS FOR THE WORK WEEK....AN UPPER LOW CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF
SEATTLE WILL DIG ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY...THEN MOVE
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND FINALLY INTO THE MIDWEST ON
FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS UNDER PERSISTENT
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT WE WILL BECOME AND REMAIN CAPPED FOR MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK...BUT WE COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS WHERE THE CAP IS THE WEAKEST . WEDNESDAY
IS THE ONE DAY THAT THE CAP WEAKENS AS A FEW SMALL UPPER
DISTURBANCES MOVE OVER THE REGION. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS
NEXT WEEK WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING STRONG TO SEVERE. LARGE HAIL
WILL THE MAIN THREAT DUE TO VERY HIGH CAPES VALUES.

This is just a broken record.

[Ntxw]

Before we worry about cap and cinh next week enjoy the 0.50 to 1 inch cool rains tomorrow. As for next week things will be very unstable but the cap will be strong. If one of two things happen; either the temperature needs to get really hot or we get sufficient lift. Likely biggest outbreak of the year up to the north from OKC to Nebraska closer to lift.

[somethingfunny]

I got a nice half inch of rain this morning.

This whole week bears some watching, but Wednesday and particularly Thursday seem the most likely to produce severe storms in Texas.

[Ralph's Weather]

Got well over an inch yesterday with temps hovering near 50 all day.

[Ntxw]

Heads up on the sky this week. We are more capped than folks up north but that just means if any storms breaks the cap will be violent quickly on any given day. Wed night into Thurs is best for widespread thunderstorms. Very wet pattern setting up next two weeks.

Next weekend has potential for a bigger event for us as the low will be much further south ejecting out into the state. But that is a ways out.

[Ntxw]

A little off topic on spring, but over the past 7 months it has become official. We can call fall and winter of 2014-2015 an El Nino year (weak and ongoing). After four years hiatus it has returned on the fifth year.

Blues are La Nina's, Reds are El Nino's everything else is neutral.

[aggiecutter]

Looks like a little rain is on the way for the eastern half of the state:

[Portastorm]

I'll tell you what worries me about the data chart Ntxw posted above ... I did a little research and the last summers which reflected similar ENSO values were 1953 and 1969. Both summers were hot and dry for Texas.

I would have figured ... El Nino ... active Southern jet ... severe weather, rains ... but apparently not. At least in those Nino summers.

[weatherdude1108]

Rainstorm chances increasing hopefully.

FXUS64 KEWX 062021
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT MON APR 6 2015

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
THE AFTERNOON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. THIS WILL LIMIT THE
OVERALL INSTABILITY AND LIKELY ALLOW THE MID-LEVEL CAPPING
INVERSION TO KEEP CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING ACROSS MOST AREAS
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OUT WEST
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS. SPC
MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW AXIS OF SURFACE-BASED CAPE ALONG WITH
A LOCALIZED MIN IN CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE HRRR CONTINUES TO
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
NEAR THE SERRANIAS DEL BURRO MOUNTAINS...THEN MOVE EAST INTO THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS. IF CONVECTION DOES MANAGE TO DEVELOP...A STRONG
STORM OR TWO REMAINS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS BEING THE
MAIN THREATS. WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS INTACT.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...
ON WEDNESDAY...SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION. AN
INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ACTIVITY COULD LEAD TO AN UPTICK IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ACROSS MOST AREAS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK AND
UPCOMING WEEKEND..SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES AND BECOMES
INCREASINGLY ACTIVE. WE/LL CONTINUE TO MENTION A LOW CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST AREAS. THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A
STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING IN FROM THE WEST THIS WEEKEND.
THERE ARE SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES AND WILL AWAIT ADDITIONAL MODEL
RUNS BEFORE ADJUSTING THE CURRENT FORECAST.

[Ntxw]

I'll tell you what worries me about the data chart Ntxw posted above ... I did a little research and the last summers which reflected similar ENSO values were 1953 and 1969. Both summers were hot and dry for Texas.

I would have figured ... El Nino ... active Southern jet ... severe weather, rains ... but apparently not. At least in those Nino summers.

I never noticed that perhaps something to think about. One good thing though is this Nino is coupled with a raging +PDO Nino as opposed to those two events which were predominantly -PDO during their reign. This Nino so far has delivered (wetter than normal winter) since it began so good run so far, lets keep it up.