Texas Summer - 2014

[weatherdude1108]

EWX has another exciting post. Tomorrow they may not even mention a heavy rain event.


000
FXUS64 KEWX 222021
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
321 PM CDT SUN JUN 22 2014

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL SURGE BACK TO 1.75 TO NEAR 2 INCHES
BY TUESDAY. THE MOIST AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALLOWING SEVERAL OPPORTUNITIES FOR RAIN AS
MULTIPLE WEAKNESSES IN THE FLOW ALOFT PASS THROUGH THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS. THE BEST COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL PEAK WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND WANE IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT A LACK OF
STABILITY THROUGH THE MID/UPPER LEVELS WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT
CHANCE EACH NIGHT MAINLY SE OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. MODELS ARE TAKING
TURNS INDICATING A QPF BULLS-EYE IN OUR GENERAL AREA BUT AREN`T
VERY CONSISTENT RUN-TO-RUN. DESPITE THE INCONSISTENCIES...THE
MODELS ARE IN CONSENSUS WITH INSTABILITY REMAINING ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FINER DETAILS ARE YET TO BE
WORKED OUT...BUT THE OVERALL PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
HEAVY RAIN EVENT TO UNFOLD.
HIGH MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION WILL KEEP CLOUDY/MUGGY
NIGHTS AND PARTLY CLOUDY AFTERNOONS WITH TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO
AVERAGE FOR LATE JUNE.

[Ptarmigan]

An awesome discussion from the Austin/San Antonio NWS Office on nighttime core rain events.

"AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
916 AM CDT FRI JUN 20 2014

.UPDATE...
THE MCV RESPONSIBLE FOR THE HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTH THIS MORNING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS CURRENTLY CONFINED TO
NORTHWESTERN VAL VERDE COUNTY NEAR THE CITY OF LANGTRY. HAVE RUN A
QUICK UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. WITH THE LOCATION OF
THE MCV TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE REST OF THE CWA...THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL BE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEP PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW.

THE SAME MCV WAS ABLE TO GENERATE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TWO NIGHTS
IN A ROW WITH HEAVY RAIN WEST OF LAREDO 2 NIGHTS AGO. SOME PEOPLE
MAY BE WONDERING WHY THIS OCCURS AND WE WILL TRY TO EXPLAIN THIS.
MCV STANDS FOR MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX...OR A SMALL LOW CENTER
THAT IS CREATED FROM PERSISTENT CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS AND ESPECIALLY NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER WAS
VERY MOIST WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES. LIGHT
WINDS ARE IN PLACE IN THE UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A
WEAK LOW-LEVEL JET JUST OFF THE SURFACE. MCVS FORM AFTER
CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND HEAVY RAIN PERSISTS FOR SEVERAL HOURS. WHEN
HEAVY RAIN IS SITTING NEARLY STATIONARY BECAUSE OF THE WEAK UPPER
LEVEL WINDS...THE REPEATED PRODUCTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL LEADS TO
A PROCESS CALLED LATENT HEAT RELEASE. THIS MEANS THAT FOR THE
ATMOSPHERE TO MAKE RAIN IT REQUIRES ENERGY TO CONVERT WATER VAPOR
INTO LIQUID DROPS AND THIS ENERGY CAUSES THE TEMPERATURE OF THE
ATMOSPHERE TO INCREASE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS. THIS WILL
INCREASE THE STATIC STABILITY OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH INCREASES
THE VORTICITY WHICH LEADS TO THE SPINNING NATURE OF THESE FEATURES.
THE MCV CAN BE DIFFICULT TO FORECAST BECAUSE THERE ARE A LOT OF
VARIABLES TO DETERMINE HOW LONG THEIR LIFE WILL BE. STRONG WINDS
CAN TEAR THEM APART AND THEY CAN ONLY LIVE IF CONVECTION CONTINUES
TO SUSTAIN THEM. MCVS ARE PARTICULARLY TROUBLESOME AT NIGHT
BECAUSE THE INCREASE IN THE LOW-LEVEL JET FEEDS THE SYSTEM AND THE
INCREASE IN WIND SPEED INCREASES THE LOW-LEVEL LIFT INTO THE
SYSTEM. MCVS ARE WARM-RAIN PRODUCERS DUE TO THE WARMING IN THE
MID-LEVELS AND ARE THEREFORE EFFICIENT IN THE RAIN PRODUCTION AND
CAN LEAD TO VERY HEAVY RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME LIKE WE SAW
LAST NIGHT ALONG THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.

CURRENT FORECAST SHOWS THE MCV MOVING NORTH OF THE CWA FOR TONIGHT
AND AM NOT EXPECTING A REPEAT ACROSS OUR AREA REGARDLESS IF THE
SYSTEM SURVIVES FOR ANOTHER NIGHT IN ITS CURRENT STATE.

HAMPSHIRE"

I suspect some big rain and flood events in Texas occurred due to MCV.

[Ptarmigan]

+1 that Porta, Fort Worth is pretty good but they can be inconsistent too. The 2007 analog certainly hasn't come up again, but we've gotten a pair of CAVANAUGH discussions, this morning and yesterday morning, which have been as enlightening as they always are.

2007 if I recall had many flies in the ointment, which made it hard to forecast. Summer 2007 was a developing La Nina for Winter of 2007-2008.

[Ntxw]

MCS crossing north Texas this morning, rain second morning in a row. Wind and rain outside my window.



Not mentioned was yesterday morning near Granbury and areas south of Annetta received 6-8 inches of rain.

[dhweather]

Rush hour is going to be bad.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX
644 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN FORT WORTH HAS ISSUED A
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
COLLIN COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
DALLAS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOUTHEASTERN DENTON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
NORTHWESTERN ELLIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
HOOD COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
JOHNSON COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
ROCKWALL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
SOMERVELL COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
TARRANT COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS...
EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 AM CDT
* AT 643 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING
FROM CELINA TO BEDFORD TO LIPAN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
IRVING AND CARROLLTON AROUND 650 AM...
ANNA...OAK TRAIL SHORES...FARMERS BRANCH AND ADDISON AROUND 655
AM...
FOREST HILL...EVERMAN...DALWORTHINGTON GAR AND ARLINGTON AROUND 700
AM...
THIS WILL IMPACT THE FOLLOWING INTERSTATES...
I-35W BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 26 AND 81...
I-35E BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 402 AND 457...
I-20 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 384 AND 475...
I-30 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 66...
I-45 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 271 AND 284...
I-820 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 1 AND 35...
I-635 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 12 AND 36.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.
IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER IN A STRONG BUILDING AND
STAY INSIDE...AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.
&&
LAT...LON 3340 9639 3334 9638 3335 9629 3282 9630
3281 9652 3252 9652 3221 9754 3221 9763
3212 9784 3214 9788 3256 9807 3255 9756
3275 9754 3285 9726 3340 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1143Z 292DEG 29KT 3332 9672 3280 9711
3250 9800

[dhweather]

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 414 AM CDT MON JUN 23 2014/

THE PRIMARY WEATHER FEATURE OF INTEREST EARLY THIS MORNING WAS A
SQUALL LINE LOCATED FROM NORMAN TO WICHITA FALLS TO LUBBOCK AS OF
4 AM CDT. THIS SQUALL LINE WAS A BIT WEAKER THAN IT WAS AROUND
MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER ITS RADAR REFLECTIVITY STRUCTURE CONTINUED TO
SHOW A WELL ORGANIZED LINEAR MCS WITH FAIRLY UPRIGHT UPDRAFTS AND
STRONG CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF ITS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
THIS STRUCTURE LIKELY MEANS THAT THIS SQUALL LINE WILL NOT FALL
APART OR SLOW DOWN MUCH AS IT CONTINUES SOUTHEAST OVER NORTH TEXAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. THE PORTION OF THE SQUALL LINE THAT WILL
LIKELY REACH OUR NORTHWESTERN CWA FIRST WAS STILL SEVERE WARNED BY
WFO OUN AT THE TIME OF THIS DISCUSSION. KFDR RADAR OBSERVED A
50-54 KT INBOUND VELOCITY AT AROUND 100 FT AGL WITHIN THIS
WARNING. THE SQUALL LINE MAY CONTINUE TO WEAKEN A BIT AS IT MOVES
TOWARDS NORTH TEXAS...BUT STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
CERTAINLY BE A POSSIBILITY WITHIN THIS LINE THIS MORNING. AT THIS
TIME...THE SQUALL LINE WAS ON TRACK TO MOVE THROUGH THE DFW
METROPLEX FROM APPROXIMATELY 6 AM TO 8 AM. THIS TIMING MAY CHANGE
AS INTENSITY CHANGES WITHIN THE LINE OF STORMS...HOWEVER IMPACTS
TO THE MORNING RUSH HOUR COMMUTE LOOK LIKELY AT THIS TIME.

ASIDE FROM STRONG WIND GUSTS...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED
TO BE A PROBLEM AS WELL. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS CONTINGENT UPON THE
SPEED OF THE STORMS AND THE SQUALL LINE IN GENERAL THIS MORNING.
THE TEXAS TECH WRF INDICATES THAT THE SQUALL LINE...OR ITS
REMNANTS...WILL PUSH THROUGH THE ENTIRE CWA FROM 12 TO 18Z. IF
THIS SCENARIO PANS OUT...LOCALIZED FLOODING IS LESS LIKELY BECAUSE
STORMS WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE AREA TOO QUICKLY. MANY OTHER
HIGH-RESOLUTION GUIDANCE MEMBERS WEAKEN THE SQUALL LINE TO THE
POINT THAT IT DROPS A NEARLY STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20 BY LATE THIS MORNING. IF THIS OCCURS...IT`S
ONLY GOING TO HAPPEN BECAUSE THE SQUALL LINE SLOWS DOWN
CONSIDERABLY FROM ITS CURRENT PACE. ANY ONGOING RAIN SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THIS SCENARIO WOULD BE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING AS STORMS WILL SIMPLY BE MOVING SLOWER.

EITHER WAY...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL OCCUR WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ALONG THE SQUALL LINE BECAUSE MODELS INDICATE THAT PWATS
ONLY INCREASE OUT AHEAD OF THE SQUALL LINE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS THIS
MORNING. WITH LITTLE AIRCRAFT ACTIVITY (FOR AMDAR SOUNDINGS)
OVERNIGHT...ITS DIFFICULT TO ESTABLISH IF THIS IS REALISTIC OR
NOT. HOWEVER LOOKING AT THE GOES SOUNDER OUTPUT...THERE IS A PLUME
OF 2 INCH (OBSERVED AS 50 MM) PWATS LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE DFW
AREA...CONTINUING SOUTH OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. HOW FAR NORTH OR EAST
THIS PLUME EXTENDS IS UNKNOWN BECAUSE THE SATELLITE CAN NOT SEE
THROUGH THICK UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS OVER THESE AREAS. THE FACT THAT 2
INCH PWATS ARE OBSERVED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF WHERE MODELS DEPICT 2
INCH PWATS THIS MORNING (GENERALLY NORTH OF I-20 AND EAST OF I-35)
IS A GOOD SIGN THAT THE MODELS PROBABLY HAVE THIS RIGHT.

AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD WITH A MENTION OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WORDED FORECAST THIS MORNING...HIGHLIGHTING AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AS HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCE AT SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINS. IN REALITY...WE WILL JUST HAVE TO WATCH AND SEE HOW THE
SQUALL LINE EVOLVES BECAUSE WHERE EVER THE STRONGEST THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY GOES...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL FOLLOW SUIT. THE IMPACTS WERE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO RESULT IN LARGE SCALE
FLOODING...SO NO FLOOD WATCH WILL BE ISSUED WITH THIS FORECAST
PACKAGE. WILL MONITOR STORMS AND HANDLE LOCALIZED FLOODING
TACTICALLY VIA WARNINGS...GRAPHICS AND SOCIAL MEDIA
DISSEMINATION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...NEW THUNDERSTORM CHANCES REALLY DEPEND ON
WHAT HAPPENS WITH OUR SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. MANY MODELS SHOW A
GOOD QPF SIGNAL IN LINE WITH THE SQUALL LINE...BUT MOST
UNFORTUNATELY FAIL TO CARRY THE DYNAMICS OF THE SQUALL LINE INTO
THE MODEL MASS FIELDS. FOR INSTANCE...NOT ONE OPERATIONAL MODEL
BOTHERS TO BRING A WIND SHIFT LINE INTO THE CWA WITH THE SQUALL
LINE QPF BLOB THIS MORNING. THESE MODELS ALSO FAIL TO SUFFICIENTLY
STABILIZE/COOL THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE. THIS
PRESENTS A BIG FORECAST PROBLEM AS BOTH OF THESE FACTORS WILL
PLAY A HUGE ROLE IN THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
TEXAS TECH WRF AND THE 4 KM NAM BOTH AT LEAST INDICATED SOME
RESPONSE IN THE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...SO THESE MODELS WERE
WEIGHED MORE HEAVILY FOR THIS AFTERNOON`S THUNDERSTORM FORECAST.

AN 08Z OBJECTIVE SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED A THETA-E DROP OF
AROUND 11 KELVIN BEHIND THE SQUALL LINE THIS MORNING. AS FAR AS
COLD POOLS GO BEHIND SQUALL LINES...THIS IS NOT SUPER
IMPRESSIVE...BUT WILL NOT SIMPLY DISSIPATE WITH A FEW HOURS OF
DAYTIME HEATING EITHER. AS A RESULT...WHEREVER THE SQUALL LINE
LEAVES AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THIS MORNING...IT IS LIKELY TO HANG
AROUND AND MAINTAIN SOME IDENTITY FOR THIS AFTERNOON. AT THIS
TIME...USING THE TEXAS TECH WRF`S SURFACE WIND FIELD AS A PROXY
FOR THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY`S LOCATION THIS AFTERNOON...THINK IT WILL
END UP SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. AS A RESULT...WENT AHEAD AND
LOWERED POPS FOR LOCATIONS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE FOR THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. IF THE SQUALL LINE ACTUALLY
MOVES ALL THE WAY THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY 18Z AS THE TEXAS TECH
WRF REFLECTIVITY SUGGESTS...IT MAY COMPLETELY SHUT DOWN
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE CWA FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

AS IT STANDS...HAVE 30 TO 40 POPS IN THE FORECAST SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 20 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 FOR THIS AFTERNOON
REPRESENTING THE MAXIMUM POPS ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHLIGHTED AREAS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 35 BECAUSE MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG THE ARIZONA/MEXICO BORDER
WILL MOVE EAST AND PROVIDE SOME FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER WEST-
CENTRAL TEXAS BY 00Z TODAY. IF THERE REALLY IS AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
STALLED OUT IN PLACE HERE...THE WEAK FORCING FOR ASCENT FROM THIS
TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE AN IDEAL PLACE FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS MENTIONED
ABOVE...IF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS ELSEWHERE BY THIS
AFTERNOON...POPS WILL NEED TO BE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY.

THE 4 KM NAM INDICATES THAT THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON STORMS AS IT BLOWS UP SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF VERY
STRONG LOOKING CONVECTION ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BY 00Z. THE NSSL
WRF ON THE OTHER HAND INDICATES THAT THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL NOT
BE AS IMPORTANT AS AN MCV WITH REGARDS TO AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. THIS MODEL KEEPS WELL DEFINED MCV IN PLACE OVER EAST
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON AND CONCENTRATES THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THERE INSTEAD OF ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER
NORTH/CENTRAL TEXAS. IT IS DIFFICULT TO KNOW WHAT WILL BE
IMPORTANT UNTIL THIS MORNINGS SQUALL LINE DISSIPATES AND WE CAN
REEVALUATE WHAT THE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT LOOKS
LIKE AT THAT TIME.

FOR TONIGHT...MOST MODELS INDICATE THAT OUR OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIFT NORTH TO THE RED RIVER AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR NEW
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVERNIGHT. WENT AHEAD AND KEPT HIGHER POPS
OVER THE NORTHERN CWA FOR TONIGHT AS A RESULT. IF THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY MAINTAINS ANY IDENTITY THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS OF
THE DAY...IT WILL PROBABLY SERVE TO ENHANCE THE SLOPE OF LOW-
LEVEL ISENTROPIC SURFACES PERPENDICULAR TO LOW-LEVEL WINDS
RESULTING IN ENHANCED LIFT. THE NORTHERN CWA SHOULD BENEFIT FROM
THIS ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL LIFT MORE SO THAN THE SOUTH.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MORE MODELS ARE SHOWING THAT A COL IN
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW FIELD WILL SET UP OVER NORTH TEXAS DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. AS A RESULT...KEPT BROAD BRUSHED POPS IN PLACE
FOR ALL AREAS. HAVE SLIGHTLY HIGHER POPS ADVERTISED DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS OF THE DAY EACH DAY AS ANY HEATING COMBINED WITH
ANY WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT WILL ENHANCE STORM CHANCES THROUGH
THIS PERIOD. WITH VERY WEAK FLOW FORECAST TO EXIST OVER THE
CWA...MESOSCALE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE DAILY
WEATHER PATTERN. MESOSCALE FEATURES...BY PHYSICAL DEFINITION...
CANNOT BE FORECAST MORE THAN ABOUT 12 HOURS OUT AT BEST...SO DID
NOT PUT A WHOLE LOT OF DETAIL IN PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH THIS
PERIOD AS A RESULT. FOR PLANNING PURPOSES...JUST KEEP IN MIND THAT
THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
STORMS EACH DAY. THE FORECAST WILL CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
MESOSCALE FEATURES AS THEY ARE RESOLVED...INCREASING RAIN CHANCES
FOR SOME AREAS WHILE LOWERING THEM FOR OTHERS. JUST LOOKING AT THE
PATTERN...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT FOR ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR DURING THE PEAK HEATING HOURS
OF THE DAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WENT AHEAD AND TOOK RAIN CHANCES OUT FOR
MOST LOCATIONS DURING THIS PERIOD. THE 00Z ECMWF STOPPED
ADVERTISING THAT STALLED OUT UPPER LOW OVER NEW MEXICO THAT IT HAD
BEEN SHOWING FOR THE PAST 24 HOURS. IT NOW SHOWS WEAK RIDGING
ALOFT OVER THE CWA FOR NEXT WEEKEND WITH IS MORE IN LINE WITH WHAT
THE GFS HAS BEEN SHOWING FOR DAYS. THINGS COULD CHANGE OF COURSE
AS THE RELEVANT FEATURES REMAIN WELL OUT OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF
THE PACIFIC. AT THIS TIME...SINCE MOST GUIDANCE AS ADVERTISING
RIDGING ALOFT...DECIDED TO OPT WITH A DRY FORECAST AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

CAVANAUGH

[Portastorm]

Glad you Metroplexers ... heck, most of north Texas for that matter ... have enjoyed some good rains. Looks like it is south central Texas' turn next. POPs ramped from 20 to 70% in a matter of hours this morning by NWS EWX. Mesoscale holding intact and moving south. We say: bring it!!

[wxman57]

It's both a sad and a happy time of the year for me. Sad because starting yesterday, each day going forward will be shorter than the one before. On the bright side, peak heating in Houston is typically the last few weeks of July through the first 2 weeks of August.

Looks like a good bit of rain developing in western Houston now. Not far from my house. I was going to mow the lawn this evening. Maybe not...

[weatherdude1108]

We got heavy rain and some wind gusts at the office in north Austin about an hour ago. I was out walking on a break when the gust front blew through at around 11:05am. It dropped 10-15 degrees instantly! Felt great!!

This is from the same complex that went through the panhandle and Dallas overnight and this morning. So thankful it held together! I love these things!

[Portastorm]

It's both a sad and a happy time of the year for me. Sad because starting yesterday, each day going forward will be shorter than the one before. On the bright side, peak heating in Houston is typically the last few weeks of July through the first 2 weeks of August.

Looks like a good bit of rain developing in western Houston now. Not far from my house. I was going to mow the lawn this evening. Maybe not...

We appreciate you not turning the heat knob up too high thus far this summer.

[hriverajr]

I wish I could say the same thing in DRT about the heat, although this last week has not been bad at all temp wise.

[weatherdude1108]

1.1 inches at the Weatherdude Center from this last MCS.

[South Texas Storms]

Rain chances are in the forecast pretty much every day throughout the next 7 days as our atmosphere will be moist and slightly unstable. Some areas could receive up to 2 inches of rain (especially across the eastern half of Texas).



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[wxman57]

It's both a sad and a happy time of the year for me. Sad because starting yesterday, each day going forward will be shorter than the one before. On the bright side, peak heating in Houston is typically the last few weeks of July through the first 2 weeks of August.

Looks like a good bit of rain developing in western Houston now. Not far from my house. I was going to mow the lawn this evening. Maybe not...

We appreciate you not turning the heat knob up too high thus far this summer.

I'll remind you about my summer thoughts from May 14th on page 2 of this thread:
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=116110&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=20

I wasn't buying the "hot & very dry" forecasts for most of Texas. Another inch at my house today. Over 10" in May.

[srainhoutx]

No real changes via the 12Z suite of guidance. Our Region appears to be covered by a general weakness/shear axis between two areas of high pressure to our E and another to our W. The RAP/NAM/4km WRF are suggesting a storm complex fires again early tomorrow across Central Texas and slowly sags S. The surge of tropical moisture from the wave should arrive tomorrow enhancing chances along the Coast for better rain chances for folks S of Houston. A fly in the ointment could come for EPAC disturbance 95E near the Pacific Coast of Mexico and possibly some additional mid/upper level moisture being pulled across Texas as short wave energy embedded within the flow around the Western Ridge impacts most of the Region.

[Ntxw]

I'll remind you about my summer thoughts from May 14th on page 2 of this thread:
viewtopic.php?f=24&t=116110&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=20

I wasn't buying the "hot & very dry" forecasts for most of Texas. Another inch at my house today. Over 10" in May.

Kudos to you! As painful as it was I'm sure, you didn't take the easy forecast! I'm sure you took a deep look at the Pacific Ocean, the big engine! Now how about going on a limb and forecast a 2 feet snowstorm for Houston in December??? I'm sure you can do that right?

[Ptarmigan]

It's both a sad and a happy time of the year for me. Sad because starting yesterday, each day going forward will be shorter than the one before. On the bright side, peak heating in Houston is typically the last few weeks of July through the first 2 weeks of August.

Looks like a good bit of rain developing in western Houston now. Not far from my house. I was going to mow the lawn this evening. Maybe not...

Look on the bright side. More time to starwatch at night.

[Ntxw]

From the HGX discussion earlier today.

.CLIMATE...
AS THE OVERNIGHT FCST MENTIONED...HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION HAVE
YET TO RECORD A 95 DEGREE TEMPERATURE THIS YEAR. THE AVG FIRST
DATE FOR A 95 DEGREE TEMPERATURE IN HOUSTON IS JUNE 10 (JUNE 2
COLLEGE STATION). THE LAST TIME THE CITY OF HOUSTON HAD A JUNE
WITHOUT A 95 DEGREE TEMPERATURE WAS BACK IN 2001 (COLLEGE STATION
WAS IN 1999).

[JDawg512]

Well, here we go again. EWX has pulled back rain chances and siding with a drier long range forecast. I don't like this back and forth crud.

[weatherdude1108]

Well, here we go again. EWX has pulled back rain chances and siding with a drier long range forecast. I don't like this back and forth crud.

I saw that too.