2013 U.S Severe Weather: Videos / Photos / Stats / Forecasts

[artist]

[cycloneye]

[cycloneye]

Is very hard to look at this.

[Tstormwatcher]

They are saying 37 confirmed dead right now with at least 2 dozen children missing and believed dead in Plaza Towers elementary school.
Horrible news from OK.

[cycloneye]

Many people went into these basements and saved their lives.

[cycloneye]

Incredible pictures including the before and after of that elementary school.

[cycloneye]

This is the tanker Dr Forbes is talking about that caused him to think this was an EF-5 tornado.

[Bunkertor]

Many people went into these basements and saved their lives.

... unless the Tornado moves over this door, yes.

[cycloneye]

32 minute video of Tornado from helicopter.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sEqXpesg ... r_embedded

[cycloneye]

Dog survives tornado.

[cycloneye]

That message says it all.

[Hurricaneman]

That message says it all.

Sad and Amen at the same time, things are just things and can be replaced, people unfortunately can't be

[FLCrackerGirl]

Absolutely stunning video -
Birth of the 5/20/13 Moore F-5 Tornado in New Castle OK

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XMF22_MEMJU

5:46minute video goes from just before touch down and transitions through to violent massive monster.

[SaskatchewanScreamer]

Not sure if this one has been linked to above or not. It was shot from an underground shelter in Moore and shows the tornado going overhead.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=v3o6wTcy4UQ

[Ntxw]

Now that we are some days removed at what most consider the worst tornado week since 2011, wonder what will be in store the rest of May and into June? First off the MJO is now forecasted to once again come back alive. Though differently as the GFS takes it to the Western Hemisphere while Euro loops back again through the IO. I think in the end doesn't really matter as the result will end up in Indonesia especially with the ENSO cooling recently.



Persistent troughing over the west coast or just offshore leads one to believe an active pattern will remain. Threat now likely shifts more towards the high plains and central plains through the Midwest. If the MJO forecast holds true, we'll keep the active late season severe weather right on through June after being absent much of spring.

[cycloneye]

Here is how things stand as of May 24 on the comparisons from past seasons.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A total of 12 tornadoes were confirmed in the May 1 - May 14 period. Since that time (May 15 to June 1), the USA has seen a total of 142 confirmed tornadoes. Talk about a reversal.

Not expected to last, however.

[cycloneye]

Here is a video of the May 31 of Tornado that strucked El Reno in Oklahoma.

[img][youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N7U9jyz65mA[/youtube][/img]

Look at this other one as Tornado moves over the camera.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-nKGOjNh ... r_embedded

[apocalypt-flyer]

Are we going to bother with a separate thread for today and tomorrow considering we're looking at MDTs for two pretty densely populated areas or are we going to wait and see how things pan out later today?

Today's discussion: a fairly long one

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 AM CDT WED JUN 12 2013

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN
IOWA...THROUGH MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS...INDIANA AND
WESTERN OHIO...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MODERATE RISK
AREA ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THE
SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...OHIO VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST STATES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN MONTANA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN WYOMING...

...SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE...WHICH HAVE
EMERGED FROM THE GREAT BASIN...ARE CURRENTLY PROGRESSING THROUGH
BROADER SCALE UPPER RIDGING ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
MIDDLE MISSOURI VALLEY. THE PRIMARY PERTURBATION STILL APPEARS TO
BE OVER THE DAKOTAS...WITH AT LEAST ONE OTHER NOTABLE PERTURBATION
TO ITS SOUTH AND EAST...SHIFTING INTO IOWA. THESE FEATURES WILL
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE TODAY...BUT LIKELY WILL TAKE A SOUTHEASTWARD TURN
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS REGION...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM AMPLIFICATION IN THE
LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. AS UPPER TROUGHING CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST...UPPER RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS INTO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES. AT THE SAME
TIME...ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT IMPULSE ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
WESTERLIES WILL GRADUALLY DIG SOUTHWARD ACROSS ONTARIO INTO THE
GREAT LAKES REGION...ALTHOUGH CONSOLIDATION WITH THE IMPULSE NOW
OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS IS NOT FORECAST TO OCCUR UNTIL
TOMORROW.

IN RESPONSE TO THESE DEVELOPMENTS...LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC COOLING
WILL OCCUR FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MID MISSOURI AND UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEY BY 12Z THURSDAY. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTIVE THAT
COOLING AT MID-LEVELS WILL PRECEDE LOW-LEVEL COOLING IN THE WARM
SECTOR OF A SURFACE FRONTAL WAVE...WHICH IS FORECAST TO MIGRATE
ACROSS UPPER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.

VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST IS
NOW PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...AS WELL AS MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL U.S...FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS IS
CURRENTLY CAPPING FAIRLY MOIST LOW-LEVELS...BUT SUPPORTING LARGE
CAPE. WITH DAYTIME HEATING OF A BOUNDARY LAYER WITH SURFACE DEW
POINTS AROUND 70F...MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 2000-3000+ J/KG APPEARS
LIKELY BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS A BROAD AREA OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI INTO LOWER OHIO VALLEYS...AND MUCH OF THE SOUTHEAST.

MEANWHILE...WEAK MID-LEVEL COOLING AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC COAST UPPER
TROUGH MAY ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO SUBSTANTIVE DESTABILIZATION /MIXED
LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000 J PER KG/ ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL...EASTERN MONTANA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN WYOMING BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

...MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO ATLANTIC COAST...
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
AIR...SCATTERED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...MOSTLY WEAK...IS ONGOING
ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION
INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS IS MOST LIKELY
ASSOCIATED WITH AREAS OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM
ADVECTION...AND AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PERSIST TODAY.
IF THIS OCCURS...IT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT CONVECTION COULD
EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED IN A DESTABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES
AND...PERHAPS...TO THE SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...ACROSS
PARTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA.

HOWEVER...PRIMARY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO EXIST TO THE NORTH
AND WEST...ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION AND LOWER/MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THIS
IS EXPECTED AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO
MID-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION AND LIFT...AS THE NORTH CENTRAL PLAINS
SHORT WAVE TROUGH FINALLY DIGS SOUTHEAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
VARIABILITY EXISTS AMONG THE MODELS CONCERNING WHEN AND JUST HOW
THIS OCCURS...AND THIS PROBABLY WILL HAVE CONSIDERABLE IMPACT ON THE
LOCATION AND CHARACTER OF ENSUING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

BASED LARGELY ON THE SPC STORM-SCALE ENSEMBLE DATA...HIGHEST SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AND THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL...STILL APPEAR FOCUSED IN A CORRIDOR ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
IOWA INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INTO
NORTHERN INDIANA AND WESTERN OHIO LATER TONIGHT.
IN THE PRESENCE OF STRONG SHEAR AND INSTABILITY...DISCRETE SUPERCELL
STORMS MAY OCCUR INITIALLY...BEFORE CONVECTION CONSOLIDATES AND
GROWS UPSCALE INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS.

STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW TO 30-50 KT ACROSS THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR A FEW VERY
STRONG AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ILLINOIS/INDIANA INTO OHIO. THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE ANTICIPATED
EVOLVING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
POOL PROBABLY WILL TEND TO PROPAGATE SOUTHWARD OR SOUTHEASTWARD
TOWARD THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND MODERATE RISK SEVERE
PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST WITH
VIGOROUS CONVECTION THROUGH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND PERHAPS ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST REGION...OVERNIGHT.

...CENTRAL/EASTERN MONTANA AND ADJACENT NORTHERN WYOMING...
STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
COAST TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN A PLUME FROM THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...ACROSS AND
NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IN THE
PRESENCE OF WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY...LARGEST TO THE NORTHEAST
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
MONTANA...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS.

[brunota2003]

We had a line of severe thunderstorms roll through Central and Eastern KY this morning, around 11:30 am. Here is a short video I recorded (on my phone) as the storms were moving through. We had some small limbs down, and in town they had a tree come down. This line produced a lot of damage across the region, judging by the numerous LSRs that were issued.

https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?v=10201337078447849