STORM2K

Harvey was pretty much the anti-Don '11. In Don's case, one of the worst summers imaginable killed a tropical cyclone. In Harvey's case, one of the worst tropical cyclones imaginable killed summer.

Get out the jackets:

Final advisory on Harvey put out by the NHC.

GOOD RIDDANCE!


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

Tropical Depression Harvey Discussion Number 43
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092017
1000 PM CDT Wed Aug 30 2017

Harvey has continued to weaken since this afternoon as the center
has moved farther inland over Louisiana. Surface observations
indicate that winds along the northern Gulf coast have decreased,
and the system became a tropical depression in the 0000 UTC
intermediate advisory. Harvey should continue to gradually weaken
as the circulation moves farther inland, and the cyclone is expected
to dissipate over the Ohio Valley within 72 hours.

Harvey is moving north-northeastward at about 8 kt. The cyclone
should turn northeastward around the northwestern portion of a
mid-level ridge that extends westward from the western Atlantic
across the eastern Gulf of Mexico. This steering pattern is
forecast to take Harvey across the Lower Mississippi and Tennessee
Valleys during the next couple of days.

It should be noted that despite Harvey's weakening, heavy rainfall
and flooding are forecast to occur along the path of Harvey during
the next few days, but its faster forward speed should keep
subsequent rainfall amounts well below what occurred along the
northwest Gulf coast.

This is last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on
Harvey. Future information on this system can be found in public
advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 4 AM
CDT under AWIPS header TCPAT4, WMO header WTNT34 KWNH, and on the
web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. Additional information can
also be found in products issued by your local National Weather
Service office.

The National Hurricane Center would like to thank all the men and
women that have worked countless hours at local National Weather
Service Forecast offices along the Gulf coast providing life-saving
warnings and information during the past week, on top of preparing
their family and homes for the storm. The center would also like to
acknowledge the dedication of the Air Force and NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft crews that flew numerous missions into Harvey. In
addition, NHC thanks the staff at the Weather Prediction Center,
who led efforts to coordinate forecasts of the historic
flooding event, NWS River Forecast Centers that provided flood
guidance, and the Storm Prediction Center, that coordinated tornado
forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. Ongoing catastrophic and life-threatening flooding will continue
across southeastern Texas. While the threat of heavy rains has
ended in the Houston/Galveston area, catastrophic and life-
threatening flooding will continue in and around Houston, Beaumont/
Port Arthur, and eastward into southwest Louisiana for the rest
of the week. Isolated storm totals have reached 50 inches over the
upper Texas coast, including the Houston/Galveston metropolitan
area. Please heed the advice of local officials. Do not attempt to
travel if you are in a safe place, and do not drive into flooded
roadways. Refer to products from your local National Weather
Service office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more
information on the flooding hazard. A summary of rainfall totals
compiled by the Weather Prediction Center can be found at:
http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

2. The flood threat has spread farther north and east, and
additional rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches are expected from southwestern Louisiana and
the adjacent border of eastern Texas northeastward into western
Kentucky through Friday. Please heed the advice of local officials,
and refer to products from your local National Weather Service
office and the NOAA Weather Prediction Center for more information
on the flooding hazard in these areas.

3. The Weather Prediction Center will issue public advisories on
Harvey as long as it remains a rainfall threat. These advisories
can continue to be found on the National Hurricane Center website
and at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 31/0300Z 31.7N 92.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 31/1200Z 32.8N 91.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 01/0000Z 34.5N 89.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 01/1200Z 35.9N 87.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 02/0000Z 37.0N 85.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
72H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

NNNN

Last day to post in the summer thread for general discussion. Thread will be closed for open discussion tonight as we move over to the long awaited Fall season thread for Sept-Oct-Nov.

By far 89 pages is the most I can find for any Texas summer thread to date (double what most summers achieve) in large part due to the Northern Texas sporadic rain events and the final stretch due to Harvey.

Just an FYI, Steve McCauley said he ran his Stat Method on the disturbance expected in the BoC next week. The data says the cold front coming down should prevent any impacts to the affected areas in Texas and La. Hopefully the front provides enough shearing to reduce impacts anywhere else along the GC.

Also being the last day of August, will round out another below normal day for DFW. August will end up around -1F below normal, the first in a long time ending the streak of hotter than normal months.

100 degrees days are probably over. What you have this summer is what you will end up with. What amazes me this summer more than anything is lows. Even the urban areas did not have that many days of lows 80 or above

We have a long ways to go until we know where Irma is going, but I sure hope we aren't about to see the unthinkable.

See ya August, you actually weren't too bad this year. Not one day of 100 or above for my area.

TheProfessor wrote:We have a long ways to go until we know where Irma is going, but I sure hope we aren't about to see the unthinkable.

The bend south and then w/nw invokes Ike memories of early path. No idea what endgame is but another big Altantic hurricane

Ntxw wrote:Also being the last day of August, will round out another below normal day for DFW. August will end up around -1F below normal, the first in a long time ending the streak of hotter than normal months.

100 degrees days are probably over. What you have this summer is what you will end up with. What amazes me this summer more than anything is lows. Even the urban areas did not have that many days of lows 80 or above

Not a boring summer to follow around here with a little bit of everything. Heat waves to the south, cool to average in NTX, rain, and then a big devastating storm. Here's hoping Winter 17-18 delivers the same way.

Below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall for extreme NE Texas this summer. Texarkana's high for the summer was 95 degrees. We were about 9" above normal for rainfall for the summer.

Bit off topic, but there is gas hysteria going on in the Dallas area. Seeing long lines at gas stations, with the line spilling onto the roads and highways, and stations are going dry. I guess people didn't expect a supply disruption. Glad I did and we filled up earlier this week.

gboudx wrote:Bit off topic, but there is gas hysteria going on in the Dallas area. Seeing long lines at gas stations, with the line spilling onto the roads and highways, and stations are going dry. I guess people didn't expect a supply disruption. Glad I did and we filled up earlier this week.

The shortage probably in itself isn't that dramatic. The hysteria of everyone rushing to hog up gas is likely more issue for stations running out before their normal next shipment.

Ntxw wrote:

gboudx wrote:Bit off topic, but there is gas hysteria going on in the Dallas area. Seeing long lines at gas stations, with the line spilling onto the roads and highways, and stations are going dry. I guess people didn't expect a supply disruption. Glad I did and we filled up earlier this week.

The shortage probably in itself isn't that dramatic. The hysteria of everyone rushing to hog up gas is likely more issue for stations running out before their normal next shipment.

Yep, it's a snowball going downhill effect. It was reported there would be supply issues and potential for shortages, and people lost their minds. At least we get a preview of what it may look like around here for the zombie apocalypse.

Yeah and apparently this shortage is just in DFW no where else. Microcosm effect. During shortages we should conserve and slow it down not rush to get it. It's funny to see no less

The two gas stations near my work are insane right now. Never seen anything like it. Lines all up and down Trinity Blvd. Glad I filled up a couple days ago. A full tank usually lasts me 8 or 9 days if all my driving is in town. Hope this ends soon. Thanks Harvey.

gboudx wrote:

Ntxw wrote:

gboudx wrote:Bit off topic, but there is gas hysteria going on in the Dallas area. Seeing long lines at gas stations, with the line spilling onto the roads and highways, and stations are going dry. I guess people didn't expect a supply disruption. Glad I did and we filled up earlier this week.

The shortage probably in itself isn't that dramatic. The hysteria of everyone rushing to hog up gas is likely more issue for stations running out before their normal next shipment.

Yep, it's a snowball going downhill effect. It was reported there would be supply issues and potential for shortages, and people lost their minds. At least we get a preview of what it may look like around here for the zombie apocalypse.

You have to factor in that Labor Day is a heavy car travel weekend...people (like me) heading to college football games and other weekend trips that don't want to have to break plans because of gasoline. That being said, I went out for lunch and it is madness at any intersection with a gas station, and about half the ones I drove by are out.

BrokenGlassRepublicn wrote:

gboudx wrote:

Ntxw wrote:
The shortage probably in itself isn't that dramatic. The hysteria of everyone rushing to hog up gas is likely more issue for stations running out before their normal next shipment.

Yep, it's a snowball going downhill effect. It was reported there would be supply issues and potential for shortages, and people lost their minds. At least we get a preview of what it may look like around here for the zombie apocalypse.

You have to factor in that Labor Day is a heavy car travel weekend...people (like me) heading to college football games and other weekend trips that don't want to have to break plans because of gasoline. That being said, I went out for lunch and it is madness at any intersection with a gas station, and about half the ones I drove by are out.

Same thing even up here. I think all 460 residents of where I live decided to all get gas at the same time. We have two pumps. I decided to go into Wichita Falls to get gas and its just as bad. My 12 miles a gallon truck will probably be parked for a while until things calm down.

For those of us living in urban areas, wouldn't be a bad idea to take advantage of mass transit.

When I joked at the beginning of the month about how crazy would it be if this August ended up as wet or wetter than last August, I never imagined that it would actually happen! Talk about a disasterous end to summer. Very glad that we are doing what we can to help our fellow Texans. I'm going to prepare a box of towels, shampoo, tooth paste, tooth bushes and other essentials to donate. Let's hope that Autumn is nice but holds back on extreme weather.

A good chunk of my town (Wharton) is underwater from the Colorado river. I live about 10 minutes outside of there in a rural area exactly in between Wharton & El Campo. If anyone is familiar with the Buc-ees in Wharton off of highway 59, it's been confirmed that they did indeed suffer water damage and will be shutdown for a while. The crazy thing is that I live exactly one mile from the Colorado river and we didn't flood here at my house. I live on the high side of the river just to the south of it. It always floods points to the north of it. It would flood the other side of the river worse and worse before it floods on my side. All of the creeks flowing into the river are backed up though and many pastures and fields have 2-4 feet of water in them. I can't even get into Wharton. All the roads from my side of town are shutdown. I've never seen anything like this and my parents told me they've never seen anything like this either. Pure craziness.