STORM2K

 https://twitter.com/AnthonyDuarte03/status/1724527172549759116

cycloneye wrote: https://twitter.com/AnthonyDuarte03/status/1724527172549759116

We are over 3 today at my place.

Weathertracker96 wrote:

Blown Away wrote:

SouthFLTropics wrote:https://media2.giphy.com/media/lszAB3TzFtRaU/giphy.gif
At least you didn’t say you’d be firing up the generator… I may get a little concerned then. All kidding aside, this thing needs to scoot on out of here. I’m scheduled to sail out of Miami Friday evening on Freedom of the Seas. Think we’re going to be in for a rough ride. Drink up!!!


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[url]https://i.postimg.cc/rws5f11F/fc05feb1-ebef-44db-b96b-069b8b8f1c1d.gif [/url]
It's gonna be a rough ride per the 12z Euro, nothing an open bar can't cure!

Looks like nasty weather setting up for east florida?
Is this the frontal system or could some form
& remain weak before crossing over the state?

This is a completely separate feature from the SW Caribbean, and as AJC3 has been stating for days, this is mostly extratropical development due to increasing upward motion within a deepening baroclinic zone and a sharp temperature gradient (i.e., baroclinic processes are strengthening it):




With the surface analysis above, we can see a low has formed along the stalled out front:


Meanwhile, at the upper-levels, a shortwave trough is pushing down that will help reinforce the low-level circulation shortly:


As the trough begins to weaken/degrade on Friday, this system will stall out and weaken as well. These are all baroclinic/midlatitude type of processes, so not expecting anything tropical out of this (maybe the feature that the models are starting to develop east of Florida this weekend will take on subtropical features). This is an expected development given our current state of El Nino (expect more of this over as we get into winter).

Wow.

 https://twitter.com/mikeseidel/status/1724589817848012911

 https://twitter.com/NWSWPC/status/1724770801155805653

Heavy rain continues here in Davie, keep seeing redeveloping rain bands coming onshore.

3k NAM is absurd - an additional 12-14 inches of rain on the 12z. HRRR is an additional 5-10''

El Nino kicking in.

TheHurricaneGod wrote:Heavy rain continues here in Davie, keep seeing redeveloping rain bands coming onshore.

3k NAM is absurd - an additional 12-14 inches of rain on the 12z. HRRR is an additional 5-10''

El Nino kicking in.

Pourng hard, 2nd day in a row, had almost 7 yesterday.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1724912401626157263

Looks like our developing area of LP is situated between the keys and mainland. Starting to move a little quicker to the ENE.

Going to be a long night.

 https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1724970666200355277

Impressive El Niño storm, quite possibly the first of several whoppers for Florida this winter.

Hialeah we under flood warring been raining for hours hope people staying home beat thing 3 to 5 inch rain more coming down per hours

Apparently a wake low developed behind the stratiform rain over Western Florida and there were gusts up to 60 MPH in the Ft Myers area as well as around 40MPH from Tampa south. Those are rare birds you see about once a decade.

Just need to get another pattern going here in Tampa Bay. It's been cloudy drizzley light rain since Monday and temps are staying around 69-70 and too humid. Not wanting to live in Seattle weather here. Very awkward temps that are making using the heat and A/C to rid the humidity inside is not working.

This is the first day in months that the bugs are gone. Stunning!

gatorcane wrote:Impressive El Niño storm, quite possibly the first of several whoppers for Florida this winter.

Interesting to see if there will be more. I think there will be, too.

Huge discrepancy between the Euro and the GFS for Thanksgiving weather across Florida. The GFS is cool and dreary for parts of the peninsula while the Euro is warm and humid. We are less than 5 days out now and still a huge difference. I am leaning towards the GFS in that the front will move through the Central peninsula Wed night or Thu.

gatorcane wrote:Huge discrepancy between the Euro and the GFS for Thanksgiving weather across Florida. The GFS is cool and dreary for parts of the peninsula while the Euro is warm and humid. We are less than 5 days out now and still a huge difference. I am leaning towards the GFS in that the front will move through the Central peninsula Wed night or Thu.

Ensembles are in pretty good agreement between the GEFS and EPS. GEFS has the frontal line pushing further south towards SFL (likely overdone), but through central FL both have lowering temps and dewpoints.

GFS ensembles:



ECMWF ensembles:

Nice cool few days for Florida with cool weather even making it down into South Florida. Get out and enjoy for sure, after the record heat we endured this summer, I’ll take it!