STORM2K

You know there's a cold front coming when even Key West NWS forecasts dewpoints to dip well below 60 degrees!

"As this first front peters through the area overnight it will
dissipate towards dawn on Sunday. Thereafter, a stronger cold
front currently situated near the mouth of the Mississippi River
will surge southeast thanks to an Arctic High sweeping down from
Saskatchewan and western Ontario. This high will successfully
push not only this secondary front but also a considerable air
mass change, albeit temporary, starting Sunday night. "Coldest"
night will be Monday night with lows between 65 and 70.
Similarly, daytime highs on Monday and Tuesday will hover from
the upper 70s to near 80 degrees. The more noticeable changes will
be breezy conditions at times Sunday night through early Tuesday,
along with much drier conditions. Expecting dew points to crash,
falling well below 60 degrees by Tuesday".

Ianswfl wrote:

psyclone wrote:Winter is coming. this blast of cold is the real deal. After this long and insanely hot summer this wind driven chill is going to be a shocker. Flannel watch hoisted

I bet Nov or Dec ends way above normal though. it seems after a even just normal months for temps around here is followed by scorching temps. If we get a lot of cold weather to end the year watch it be a blow torch Jan Feb and March again. With lots of days with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

El Ninos around here seem to bring in cool rainy weather at times but not the deep artic cold. That sub tropical jet brings in more modified air.

But El Nino winters in FL tend to bring a steady progression of fronts with an active southern jet stream. So typically the temps tend do not stay the same for more than a few days at a time, meaning we shouldn't get a cold month followed by a hot month but instead a few cool days, a few warm days, a rainy day or two, and then repeat the cycle.

HurricaneBelle wrote:

Ianswfl wrote:

psyclone wrote:Winter is coming. this blast of cold is the real deal. After this long and insanely hot summer this wind driven chill is going to be a shocker. Flannel watch hoisted

I bet Nov or Dec ends way above normal though. it seems after a even just normal months for temps around here is followed by scorching temps. If we get a lot of cold weather to end the year watch it be a blow torch Jan Feb and March again. With lots of days with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

El Ninos around here seem to bring in cool rainy weather at times but not the deep artic cold. That sub tropical jet brings in more modified air.

But El Nino winters in FL tend to bring a steady progression of fronts with an active southern jet stream. So typically the temps tend do not stay the same for more than a few days at a time, meaning we shouldn't get a cold month followed by a hot month but instead a few cool days, a few warm days, a rainy day or two, and then repeat the cycle.

But they're not the big artic fronts like la nina or neutral years fronta in el nino just bring it to normal or slightly below.

The hurricane season might not be technically over for everyone but it's done for us and it has been for awhile. No need to keep stringing this along. The coming chill is exquisite, the seasons have changed dramatically and nature is moving on. Any late season chicanery would most likely be shunted east of the state or get shredded should it try to move north. the good news for those of us who like interesting weather and need rain after this year's busted rainy season is the cold season may be wetter and more stormy than the rainy season. Following severe weather and fast moving squall lines makes for great weather watching and we had a good sample the other night that was close enough for me to be highly interested.

Cool, Canadian air continues to infiltrate the peninsula even down into South Florida where overcast skies and brisk NW winds has made it feel like fall. Nice change given the oppressive heat over the summer not to mention the rainy rainy season.

Low 60's and breezy at noon with gulf effect showers. Looks like my native northeast Ohio out there.

It looks like the super cold we've been having recently is going to unfortunately get knocked out for about a week or so, judging by the temps listed for my area over the course of the week. By the end of the week's forecast, the highs are listed as being in the high 70s/low 80s while lows are in the mid-high 50s range.

We have made it into the sweet zone here in FL. Endless warm (but not hot or humid) sunny days and clear mild nights. Once we have the first big front it often sets the stage for a protracted episode of glorious weather. Enjoy as we certainly paid rent this summer

I jinxed us by saying hurricane was dead. It's endless may still try to wrap us in yet. We need a strong cold front..

OK we're getting that strong cold front. I'll take it...even if the cool down is brief. We are going to have a protracted episode of windy conditions with low dewpoints. Fire weather concerns are legit. Other than that...a pretty spectacular stretch of fall weather is on deck.

Every time a cold front pushes through but does not have the mid level NW push through behind it and winds turn off of the Atlantic right away but some cooler air still drains down inland area, I find amazing the difference in morning temps across central & northern FL between the east coast and west coast of as much as 20 degrees difference.

That land based wind is cold at night on the western side of the peninsula but then warmer during the day. We're dry too so those temp variations are even bigger. What a superb stretch of weather we're having. It's a great time of year to be in Florida.

Just to illustrate the above...
Tampa's low was 53.. the high 81
Flagstaff effect

This latest front has really dropped the humidity across central Florida! Dewpoints are as low as the mid to upper 30's around the Orlando metro. What a superb Autumn day under crystal blue skies!

It looks like a pattern change is on the horizon with a nice front next weekend!

Prehaps some severe weather towards Turkey Day?

Looks like we will see our first taste of an El Niño fall/winter storm for Florida with wind gusts to 40mph along the SE coast of Florida and potentially some flooding rains, though most of the heaviest rainfall should be over the Gulf Stream. A potent low pressure area forms over the Gulf which tracks east towards Florida while spinning off another low over the Straits of Florida and/or the vicinity of Southern Florida and tracks northeast just off the SE coast of Florida the next few days. Bottom-line: a lot of vorticity in the area and an unsettled pattern this week for much of the state.

Looks like a heavy event for the east coast below the cape and wicked sea states for the east coast. Drought stricken panhandle should do well too. I'm just hoping for something...anything..we'll take it.

El Nino is finally kikking in!

After the storms late this week we got a nice shot of Autumn air!



Then prehaps a stronger front by Turkey Day!

WPC 1-2 day forecast has the SE metros getting 3-5 inches. The 12z NAM has some worrying rainfall totals.