Florida Weather

[psyclone]

CPC 6-10 is nearly maxed on the cold side for us. Dry too. The cane season for Florida is history. So is the excessive summer heat.

[gatorcane]

Agreed this cane season is likely history for Florida. A 100k jet streak over the northern Gulf coast and what looks like a significant front to clear the peninsula late this weekend ushering in below normal temps even down into South Florida is likely the dagger.

[Ianswfl]

Agreed this cane season is likely history for Florida. A 100k jet streak over the northern Gulf coast and what looks like a significant front to clear the peninsula late this weekend ushering in below normal temps even down into South Florida is likely the dagger.

Now watch Nov or Dec be super warm. Seems like a below average month is always followed by an above average month these days.

But remember 1985 and Kate. Powerful front brought temps to around freezing in Tallahassee 10 days before Kate then Kate hits them. If the Carribean is warm enough a storm can get sucked up here. Like Kate once it hits the cooler waters it will weaken then at landfall. Don't forget Ida 2009 as well. Mitch 1998 also had some cool weather too.

Looking back, Naples had some cold weather before Kate as well and that was a VERY powerful front for Nov about 10 days before Kate.

[HurricaneBelle]

Only have to go back to last year for a November hurricane impacting Florida in Nicole, well after we had multiple fronts come through the state.

It ain't over until it's over.

[psyclone]

Only have to go back to last year for a November hurricane impacting Florida in Nicole, well after we had multiple fronts come through the state.

It ain't over until it's over.

That is a fair point. Eta was also a late one. I'd like a good party storm ts. We need water

[Ianswfl]

Only have to go back to last year for a November hurricane impacting Florida in Nicole, well after we had multiple fronts come through the state.

It ain't over until it's over.

That is a fair point. Eta was also a late one. I'd like a good party storm ts. We need water

Eta would been a major hurricane for the Keys had it been two weeks earlier.

[psyclone]

Some really dry and chilly weather is in sight now...starting sunday. What a change this year compared to prior years which seemed to feature endless summer. This will absolutely savage the water temps here which are already below 80 around tampa bay. We are trading cane season for firepit season in 3-2-1...

[Ianswfl]

Some really dry and chilly weather is in sight now...starting sunday. What a change this year compared to prior years which seemed to feature endless summer. This will absolutely savage the water temps here which are already below 80 around tampa bay. We are trading cane season for firepit season in 3-2-1...

Watch though, I bet in Nov we get a pattern flip and days with temps near 90. It's hard to get two months in a row now with below normal temps.

[psyclone]

Well we have a slight risk on the map for west central Florida and the wpc has shifted the axis of heavy rain potential back into Central FL. This could be the first of many Nino enhanced cold season rain dumps for us. We remain parched so here's to hoping this isn't another false rain hope. After the rain we get protracted fall weather with cold and dry air flowing in. I'll take it!

[psyclone]

Looks like a tornadic supercell is angling toward Clearwater Beach. Impressive and persistent rotation

[chaser1]

Once more, a seemingly underwhelming event in terms of forecast rainfall expectations and broader impact of strong convective coverage for large swaths of Central Florida. There have been a few noteable small tornadic cells however these have been primarily a threat for some of you W Coast folks. Temperatures aloft must be pretty warm given the lack of lightning last night or today thus far (at least near me).

[HurricaneBelle]

Once more, a seemingly underwhelming event in terms of forecast rainfall expectations and broader impact of strong convective coverage for large swaths of Central Florida. There have been a few noteable small tornadic cells however these have been primarily a threat for some of you W Coast folks. Temperatures aloft must be pretty warm given the lack of lightning last night or today thus far (at least near me).

Didn't think it was underwhelming to be under a tornado warning three times between 10PM last night and noon today, something I never remember happening to me in 45+ years of living in Pinellas County. Also Citrus County, especially the Crystal River area, was hit hard by an F2 last night while large areas of North-central Florida received 4-6 inches of rain.

[HurricaneBelle]

 https://twitter.com/tropicalupdate/status/1712584128502051234

[ThunderForce]

Temperatures seem like they're going to be quite low where I live with the cold front that's poised to come through the area. Highs in the 70s and lows around the mid 40s to low 50s sound really nice.

[gatorcane]

South Florida will also experience some pleasant weather once the front passes Sunday night. Lows look to be in the low to mid 60s with highs in the 70s. After this summer of excessive heat warnings and the rainiest I can remember, I’ll take it!

P.S. 88F here in SE Florida this evening at 9pm. This heat needs to get out of here!

[Ianswfl]

Do you guys think this winter will be as warm in South FL?

While El Nino has an more active jet, we don't get as many of those fridged artic fronts and freezes since the air is more moderated. We do get some cooler temps due to more clouds and rain.

I guess we can expect a more humid winter though but usually El Nino doesn't bring the bone chilling fronts like you can get in a La Nina year.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Models have dewpoints falling to around 40 degrees for north, central, and even south Florida(including Miami). Even the Florida Straights northern Cuba could get a taste of this with dewpoints in Havana potentially falling into the mid-upper 50's(albit briefly)!

Here's Melburne NWS...

"Monday-Wednesday...It may be time to dig out the long sleeves!
12/12Z ensemble clusters are in excellent agreement with an upper
air pattern that will lead to a cool, sunny stretch of weather.
The aforementioned rex block will become most pronounced on
Monday, allowing for -2 to -3 sigma H5 height anomalies over much
of the Sunshine State. Concerning climatology, this is highly
anomalous, falling in the 1st to 3rd percentile. Consequently,
impressive cold and dry air advection will persist over the state
through at least early Tuesday. H85 T`s from +7 to +10C on Monday
and Tuesday will translate to high temps in the low and mid 70s.
These readings will be very close to record low maxima at a few of
our climate sites! On cue, the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index
continues to come in around -0.8 to -0.9 (on a -1 to +1 scale) for
temperatures, indicating very unusually cool conditions for the
time of year. On Wednesday, slight moderation begins with mid 70s
north to near 80 along the Treasure Coast. Widespread 50s can be
expected Tuesday and Wednesday mornings; there is still a 10-30%
chance a few places northwest of Orlando briefly dip into the
upper 40s, particularly Wednesday morning".

After this another dig in the jetstream could very well greet us by next weekend!

[gatorcane]

I believe this front ends the rainy season. NWS Miami:

Finally, after a prolonged season of oppressive warmth, relief
appears to be on the way for South Florida! A potent upper-level
trough and attendant cold front will eject southeastward, with the
frontal boundary clearing the CWFA and providing a noticeable
reduction in temperatures and dew points. Monday and Tuesday will
be the first real taste of the fall season for South Florida, as
maximum temperatures likely dip into the mid-70s/lower 80s across
the region. Strong cold-air advection spilling in from the mid-
latitudes will descend deep into the sub-tropics, with breezy
winds out of the NW around 10-15 mph and gusts as high as 20-25
mph at times.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=0

[psyclone]

Winter is coming. this blast of cold is the real deal. After this long and insanely hot summer this wind driven chill is going to be a shocker. Flannel watch hoisted

[Ianswfl]

Winter is coming. this blast of cold is the real deal. After this long and insanely hot summer this wind driven chill is going to be a shocker. Flannel watch hoisted

Then next weekend mid 80s return with isolated shower chances. We still might not be done with hurricane season. The euro ensembles are too now trying to cook something up. Of course SST will be cooler up there. Looks like end of Oct will be back to normal temps once again.

I bet Nov or Dec ends way above normal though. it seems after a even just normal months for temps around here is followed by scorching temps. If we get a lot of cold weather to end the year watch it be a blow torch Jan Feb and March again. With lots of days with highs in the mid 80s to low 90s.

El Ninos around here seem to bring in cool rainy weather at times but not the deep artic cold. That sub tropical jet brings in more modified air.