Texas Fall 2018

[bubba hotep]

The year 2000 was an epic year as a kid in Kansas. That December had snow on the ground most of the month with multiple small snow events. Frankly, while I had a couple big snows, that is more memorable since it didn't melt off in a few days. I found the cooperative observer report online for that month where I grew up. Looks like 3 snow events and 9.5 inches total for the month. There was snow on the ground from Dec. 11 to the 31st. I have never recalled anything similar. That was one of those months that got me into weather. So, if we are on pace to match November 2000, I hope that's a good omen for Texas.

2000 brought us the epic New Year's Eve snow storm. That was about the first one that I have vivid memory of. That was the same event as the A&M vs MS St Independence Bowl.

https://www.weather.gov/shv/event_2000-12-31_snow

I was just talking to someone about that game but we couldn't remember the year. Typically, A&M vs State would be of no interest to me but I remember watching that because of the snow.

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The year 2000 was an epic year as a kid in Kansas. That December had snow on the ground most of the month with multiple small snow events. Frankly, while I had a couple big snows, that is more memorable since it didn't melt off in a few days. I found the cooperative observer report online for that month where I grew up. Looks like 3 snow events and 9.5 inches total for the month. There was snow on the ground from Dec. 11 to the 31st. I have never recalled anything similar. That was one of those months that got me into weather. So, if we are on pace to match November 2000, I hope that's a good omen for Texas.

2000 brought us the epic New Year's Eve snow storm. That was about the first one that I have vivid memory of. That was the same event as the A&M vs MS St Independence Bowl.

https://www.weather.gov/shv/event_2000-12-31_snow

I was just talking to someone about that game but we couldn't remember the year. Typically, A&M vs State would be of no interest to me but I remember watching that because of the snow.

I was a Freshman at A&M that year and drove from Longview (my hometown) to Shreveport to tailgate in 22 degree weather. Then the skies opened up... my God that drive home was gnarly in 6 inches of snow.

[cctxhurricanewatcher]

It actually got colder than that down here.

[bubba hotep]

DFW is now -6.8F below normal for the month. There is still no signicant above normal in sight. At best we get to near normal before cooling down again for a few days late week. Also Thanksgiving is now starting to look stormy.

The Euro isn't as stormy across Texas as the GFS & FV3. The models have been bumping the better pattern for rain out in time, but that is pretty common for a pattern shift. My Nov call was below/above, so I need a couple of solid wet systems for that to verify lol

In the longer range, CPC is going warmer beyond D10 and in Weeks 3 & 4. However, they highlight some uncertainty in the evolution of the MJO and how the low frequency background state responds. As others have noted, a period of -NAO looks to be setting up with neutral PNA and -EPO, that is a cold look for Texas.



Not surprisingly, the Euro EPS has trended colder in the longer range but has some drier risk. The one draw back is that WCAN isn't really building any impressive cold during this transition. In Jan and Feb the air is plenty cold up there even without big anomalies but this is still early, climo wise. All that said, I'm not really seeing any winter wx risk through early Dec but I hope this is a sign of what the overall pattern will be this winter.

[Cpv17]

Look at the massive amount of blocking and how strong the high pressures are in the Artic on the FV3. I have to give this model some respect since it was the first one to latch onto the current cold snap in the longer range. Also, this would line up towards the last part of November/first part of December that some of y’all have been hinting at something big happening.

[Brent]

Look at the massive amount of blocking and how strong the high pressures are in the Artic on the FV3. I have to give this model some respect since it was the first one to latch onto the current cold snap in the longer range. Also, this would line up towards the last part of November/first part of December that some of y’all have been hinting at something big happening.

no question next timeframe I'm intrigued in for wintry potential. Until then just a question of how much it rains towards Thanksgiving

[ThunderSleetDreams]

Look at the massive amount of blocking and how strong the high pressures are in the Artic on the FV3. I have to give this model some respect since it was the first one to latch onto the current cold snap in the longer range. Also, this would line up towards the last part of November/first part of December that some of y’all have been hinting at something big happening.

no question next timeframe I'm intrigued in for wintry potential. Until then just a question of how much it rains towards Thanksgiving

At least Thanksgiving will feel like Thanksgiving and not 75 damn degrees.

[cheezyWXguy]

Look at the massive amount of blocking and how strong the high pressures are in the Artic on the FV3. I have to give this model some respect since it was the first one to latch onto the current cold snap in the longer range. Also, this would line up towards the last part of November/first part of December that some of y’all have been hinting at something big happening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_62.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_61.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... mer_62.png

As noted earlier in the thread, this isn't the first run of this model to show a favorable setup in that timeframe either, so its got my attention. Still wayyy out in fantasyland though. Need a lot more runs, and for other models to catch on, before I start taking it even remotely seriously.

[gboudx]

Look at the massive amount of blocking and how strong the high pressures are in the Artic on the FV3. I have to give this model some respect since it was the first one to latch onto the current cold snap in the longer range. Also, this would line up towards the last part of November/first part of December that some of y’all have been hinting at something big happening.

no question next timeframe I'm intrigued in for wintry potential. Until then just a question of how much it rains towards Thanksgiving

At least Thanksgiving will feel like Thanksgiving and not 75 damn degrees.

I'm hoping the same for Christmas. We spend it in New Orleans and wore shorts the past 2-3 years.

[Brent]

DFW was colder this morning than the entire winter of 15-16

I just hope next time its this cold there's a snowstorm with it

[TheProfessor]

I'm starting to worry about the icing potential here. The high temps busted and we didn't get above freezing today. Although lately according to the HRRR I get saved by Sleet. Areas just to my south and southwest aren't so lucky though. Wouldn't be surprised if an Ice Storm Warning went up for them as the criteria is .25+" for the FWA. Even cutting some HRRR totals in half would still meet that criteria lol.

[bubba hotep]

Look at the massive amount of blocking and how strong the high pressures are in the Artic on the FV3. I have to give this model some respect since it was the first one to latch onto the current cold snap in the longer range. Also, this would line up towards the last part of November/first part of December that some of y’all have been hinting at something big happening.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018111412/fv3p_z500a_namer_62.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018111412/fv3p_mslp_pcpn_frzn_namer_61.png

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/fv3p/2018111412/fv3p_T2ma_namer_62.png

The fun thing about that run is that WCAN is an absolute icebox at Hr 384 lol

[TeamPlayersBlue]

DFW was colder this morning than the entire winter of 15-16

I just hope next time its this cold there's a snowstorm with it

Same here hahaha

[Ralph's Weather]

Have NWS forecasts always included frost? I do not recall seeing that.

[northjaxpro]

Models hinting at the blocking ridge setting up over Greenland by the start of December.

This could be the start of a -NAO taking shape as we get in December. We will know in a couple of weeks at least.

[Brent]

Have NWS forecasts always included frost? I do not recall seeing that.

I've seen it before at the beginning of the season before the big freezes

[Ralph's Weather]

Down too 29 here already.

[Ntxw]

You know, late this weekend it's going to end up a little colder than what the models showed a week ago. I wonder if this is going to be the trend this year. Sunday in NTX is likely to be falling throughout the day from the upper 40s to the lower 40s.

[TXWeatherMan]

The 18z FV3 has some very cold air waiting to come down around the end of the month.

[Cpv17]

You know, late this weekend it's going to end up a little colder than what the models showed a week ago. I wonder if this is going to be the trend this year. Sunday in NTX is likely to be falling throughout the day from the upper 40s to the lower 40s.

Yep. Another thing I’ve noticed too is the models having an east bias in the medium to long range with the cold air only to shift back west in the short.