Florida Weather

[MetroMike]

Here in Cape Canaveral, we got an absolutely insane amount of rain yesterday. Lots of flooding.

Well thank you very little

[psyclone]

Dodged another 80% and 70% rain odds...at least the rain chances are gone now. Strong front is about a week out and right on schedule as normal to somewhat below normal temps are showing on the CPC outlooks. We might get some sustained low dewpoint, refreshing air. That will drive a stake through hurricane season for us if that happens and things are tilting that way.

[Ianswfl]

Dodged another 80% and 70% rain odds...at least the rain chances are gone now. Strong front is about a week out and right on schedule as normal to somewhat below normal temps are showing on the CPC outlooks. We might get some sustained low dewpoint, refreshing air. That will drive a stake through hurricane season for us if that happens and things are tilting that way.

Well, you have storms like Eta and hurricane kate that hit after cold fronts. What says we don't get something like a Kate, Eta, or Nicole in November even after we've had some fronts?

If something forms in the Carribean it could get pushed up our way still. However it would be not as strong since no more 90 degree waters.

Would you say Kate was like a once in 150 year storm?

Remember ft. Myers get hit by a tropical storm on December 1st. Was thought to be a min hurricane but hurdat revised it

[psyclone]

Dodged another 80% and 70% rain odds...at least the rain chances are gone now. Strong front is about a week out and right on schedule as normal to somewhat below normal temps are showing on the CPC outlooks. We might get some sustained low dewpoint, refreshing air. That will drive a stake through hurricane season for us if that happens and things are tilting that way.

Well, you have storms like Eta and hurricane kate that hit after cold fronts. What says we don't get something like a Kate, Eta, or Nicole in November even after we've had some fronts?

If something forms in the Carribean it could get pushed up our way still. However it would be not as strong since no more 90 degree waters.

Would you say Kate was like a once in 150 year storm?

Remember ft. Myers get hit by a tropical storm on December 1st. Was thought to be a min hurricane but hurdat revised it

Kate was highly anomalous. That's why it's so memorable. When you have to reach back decades for an example...it means it usually doesn't happen. If we get persistent dry air flooding the field...which appears to be an increasing possibility...it's curtains for cane season. Time will tell...but most years we sneak through and if the pattern becomes hostile...that's another big thumb on the scale of that outcome.

[Ianswfl]

Dodged another 80% and 70% rain odds...at least the rain chances are gone now. Strong front is about a week out and right on schedule as normal to somewhat below normal temps are showing on the CPC outlooks. We might get some sustained low dewpoint, refreshing air. That will drive a stake through hurricane season for us if that happens and things are tilting that way.

Well, you have storms like Eta and hurricane kate that hit after cold fronts. What says we don't get something like a Kate, Eta, or Nicole in November even after we've had some fronts?

If something forms in the Carribean it could get pushed up our way still. However it would be not as strong since no more 90 degree waters.

Would you say Kate was like a once in 150 year storm?

Remember ft. Myers get hit by a tropical storm on December 1st. Was thought to be a min hurricane but hurdat revised it

Kate was highly anomalous. That's why it's so memorable. When you have to reach back decades for an example...it means it usually doesn't happen. If we get persistent dry air flooding the field...which appears to be an increasing possibility...it's curtains for cane season. Time will tell...but most years we sneak through and if the pattern becomes hostile...that's another big thumb on the scale of that outcome.

Don't forget Tropical Storm Keith in 1988 as well!! Hit Sarasota in late Nov.

This is the thing though. You notice now we get the fronts, but since the temps are warmer overall now, so when the front passes the temps behind the front are warmer overall compared to years past. I know the cold snap last Dec around Christmas was just brutal but only lasted a couple days. Other than that it seems even a strong front now brings lows into the mid 40s here in Southwest FL.

It seems now fronts mean drier air and lower humidity, not super cold temps anymore. This past winter our fronts would drop the highs like only into the upper 70s many times for higher. Nothing that below normal.

Lots of days here in Punta Gorda this past winter and spring with highs in the upper 80s and the 90s as well. Just drier air!

With these warmer temps keeping the Gulf warmer longer I can see the chances for a November or even a December sub tropical storm more often in the future.

The wind storm we got in December of 2021 here in Southwest FL, I'm thinking that should been named. Joe Bastardi made a good case for it. Waters were in the upper 70s and it was a surface low. Should been a sub tropical storm.

This year if our water temps are warm into December I'm wondering what it will be like with El Nino if it acts like it should. You think it's possible one of those low pressures works down to the surface and becomes sub tropical?

[psyclone]

I'm bullish on lots of winter squall lines...although the 2015 Nino did not deliver to the extent expected. This winter season could be much more interesting than usual. Time will tell but we need extra water in west central FL after this failed rainy season

[Ianswfl]

I'm bullish on lots of winter squall lines...although the 2015 Nino did not deliver to the extent expected. This winter season could be much more interesting than usual. Time will tell but we need extra water in west central FL after this failed rainy season

Yea, if the Gulf stays warm I wonder as well. 2015 the Gulf was warm in Dec btw.

If it's way above normal still I gotta wonder with El Nino if we get a frontal low in the Gulf if it could form sub tropical. You don't need 79 degree waters for a sub tropical storm.

Remember the winter of 2022 I think it was Feb the Euro actually wanted to form a sub tropical storm in the Gulf on a number of runs from a surface low. That surface low eventually did form but it was right along the coast in the northern Gulf so it didn't develop.

This is what I'm talking about in the winter. Joe Bastardi said this should have been a named storm. Looks sub tropical stormish to me. It damaged my roof. It was a blessing because I got a new roof in time for Ian which helped me out from getting more damage.

Maybe we get a storm like this once again with the warm waters. NWS Tampa mentioned the warm waters helping intensify this low.

https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/3a ... d2f154cd04

[Ianswfl]

Front looks like it will be weaker and stall! Just makes it past me but seems to stall over south FL with hardly change in temps for Miami. Will keep the waters from cooling as bad.

The Caribbean is boiling right now. Something has to pop down there.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the front next weekend means business. Here is the GFS dewpoint animation. The Euro also shows the front clearing Florida. That said, still long-range:

[FlaWeatherDude]

Front looks like it will be weaker and stall! Just makes it past me but seems to stall over south FL with hardly change in temps for Miami. Will keep the waters from cooling as bad.

Yeah looks like the 60 degree dewpoint isotope will barely make it much south of Fort Myers/Lake Oklachobee with refreshing dewpoints(30's-50's) staying across all of Central and North Florida.

I think 99E will merge with a S/W late week that'll carve a deeper trough by the weekend. This should drive a stronger front through south Florida by next Sunday baring any changes.

[Ianswfl]

Front looks like it will be weaker and stall! Just makes it past me but seems to stall over south FL with hardly change in temps for Miami. Will keep the waters from cooling as bad.

Yeah looks like the 60 degree dewpoint isotope will barely make it much south of Fort Myers/Lake Oklachobee with refreshing dewpoints(30's-50's) staying across all of Central and North Florida.

I think 99E will merge with a S/W late week that'll carve a deeper trough by the weekend. This should drive a stronger front through south Florida by next Sunday baring any changes.

Do you think maybe we get something sub tropical on it? Simulated euro Satellite looks like something sub tropical forms along it. Hybrid, sloppy system.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Front looks like it will be weaker and stall! Just makes it past me but seems to stall over south FL with hardly change in temps for Miami. Will keep the waters from cooling as bad.

Yeah looks like the 60 degree dewpoint isotope will barely make it much south of Fort Myers/Lake Oklachobee with refreshing dewpoints(30's-50's) staying across all of Central and North Florida.

I think 99E will merge with a S/W late week that'll carve a deeper trough by the weekend. This should drive a stronger front through south Florida by next Sunday baring any changes.

Do you think maybe we get something sub tropical on it? Simulated euro Satellite looks like something sub tropical forms along it. Hybrid, sloppy system.

Not enough to be classified as a subtropical storm but definately will send juice our way Wed-Fri next week!

[NDG]

Looking forward to the "cooler" mornings over the next couple of days so that my A/C and my wallet get a break after paying record electric bills this summer after Duke's energy oppressive large rate increase

[Ianswfl]

Yeah looks like the 60 degree dewpoint isotope will barely make it much south of Fort Myers/Lake Oklachobee with refreshing dewpoints(30's-50's) staying across all of Central and North Florida.

I think 99E will merge with a S/W late week that'll carve a deeper trough by the weekend. This should drive a stronger front through south Florida by next Sunday baring any changes.

Do you think maybe we get something sub tropical on it? Simulated euro Satellite looks like something sub tropical forms along it. Hybrid, sloppy system.

Not enough to be classified as a subtropical storm but definately will send juice our way Wed-Fri next week!

Will be more humid. Next wed a low of 78 for me!

[HurricaneBelle]

Yes that's me refreshing the RWR (regional weather roundup) every hour ahead of a cold front to see how close to me the dewpoints have started dropping.

[FlaWeatherDude]

Models are adament the dry air will make it towards Lake Oklachobee region but not nuch further.



Though on a positive note models are showing a bona fide frontal passage next Sunday! Even Key West NWS is causiously optimistic!

"For those looking for relief from the heat, there continues to be
a lot of global ensemble support for a true cold front to push
all the way through the Florida Peninsula by late next weekend or
early next week. We are cautiously optimistic at this solution
given run-to-run and model-to-model consistency, and we will
continue to monitor".

[Ianswfl]

Looks like the front next weekend means business. Here is the GFS dewpoint animation. The Euro also shows the front clearing Florida. That said, still long-range:

https://i.postimg.cc/vBdNBFRN/gfs-Td2m-seus-fh168-234.gif

Also a signal hurricane season coming to and end sooner than some years. Not trying to sound wishcasting or anything like that btw but being a weather weenie it kinda gives you a sad like feeling. I don't like winter. I'm a summer guy!

[gatorcane]

Lower dew points have invaded down into the Central Florida peninsula.

[jlauderdal]

Lower dew points have invaded down into the Central Florida peninsula.

Plenty of moisture and SW flow for sofla, the very wet 2023 continues.

[gatorcane]

Update on lower dew point progression: looks like South Florida is clinging onto those “uncomfortable” dew points above 70F this evening with the 70F line from around Naples to Jupiter. The lower dew points have worked their way into SW Florida with a comfortable 64F in Fort Myers and 59F in Punta Gorda. Guidance suggests some sub-70F dew points could temporarily bleed into South Florida later thought and into tomorrow as the front slowly moves south, but looks like by and large South Florida will miss out on the pleasant weather from the front this time: