MESOSCALE DISCUSSION NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1017
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0157 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN SD...SERN ND...EXTREME
   WE-CENTRAL MN.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418...
   
   VALID 290657Z - 290900Z
   
   MCS SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING NEWD APPROXIMATELY 50 KT ACROSS
   CENTRAL/NRN PORTIONS WW AREA...WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL POSSIBLE.
   ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP ATOP OUTFLOW POOL FROM MCS
   ACROSS NERN NEB OR SERN SD...PRIND SVR POTENTIAL WILL BE TOO
   MRGL/CONDITIONAL TO CONTINUE WW BEHIND INITIAL ACTIVITY.
   
   TWO PRIMARY CLUSTERS ARE EVIDENT WITHIN MCS AS OF 0630Z.  ORIGINAL
   BAND OF TSTMS RESPONSIBLE FOR 49 KT GUST AT PIR...AND STRONGER WINDS
   EARLIER IN SWRN SD...APPEARS TO BE SHRINKING WITH OVERALL WEAKENING
   TREND...BUT STILL REMAINS CAPABLE OF OCCASIONAL HAIL AND GUSTS NEAR
   SEVERE LEVELS AS IT CROSSES ND COUNTIES
   LAMOURE...STUTSMAN...MCINTOSH AND LOGAN.  THIS ACTIVITY IS MOVING
   ALONG 850 MB FRONTAL ZONE AND WRN EDGE OF FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL
   MOISTURE...AS EVIDENT IN RUC SOUNDINGS AND GPS PW DATA.  SRN SEGMENT
   WILL MOVE ACROSS ABR AREA AND NEWD TOWARD FAR...ALSO WITH SOME
   WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL.  THIS ACTIVITY IS LOCATED CLOSER TO MOST
   FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ABOVE SFC...HOWEVER...IT SHOULD REMAIN
   BEHIND INTENSE GUST FRONT PRODUCED BY INITIAL SEGMENT FOR AT LEAST
   2-3 MORE HOURS.  ASSOCIATED RELATIVELY COLD/STABLE OUTFLOW AIR MAY
   REDUCE INTENSITY/DURATION OF GUSTS WITH SECOND CLUSTER.  GENERAL
   WEAKENING TENDENCIES MAY CONTINUE...WITH POSSIBILITY THAT WW WOULD
   BE CANCELED BEFORE SCHEDULED 10Z EXPIRATION.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...
   
   43719806 45059933 46709989 47679936 47899864 47789735
   47089637 45229634 43849766

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1018
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0328 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/NERN ND...W-CENTRAL MN...NERN
   SD.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 418...
   
   VALID 290828Z - 291000Z
   
   STRONG/POSSIBLY SVR TSTM NW JMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE NNEWD
   APPROXIMATELY 50 KT ALONG 850 MB FRONT TOWARD DVL AREA...WHERE SFC
   TEMPS UPPER 50S F AND ASSOCIATED STABLE LAYER IN FCST SOUNDINGS
   SUGGEST DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL IS LIMITED/ISOLATED.  CONVECTION
   PRODUCED 33 KT GUST AT JMS.  POTENTIAL REMAINS FOR OCCASIONAL SVR
   HAIL.  BECAUSE OF LIMITED TIME/AREA AFFECTED...PRIND ADDITIONAL WW
   WILL NOT BE NECESSARY.
   
   FARTHER SE...GUST FRONT FROM INITIAL TSTM CLUSTER PRODUCED 39 KT
   GUST AT ABR METAR/ASOS BUT MEASURED 54 KT GUST ON WFO ABR WIND
   EQUIPMENT...AS WELL AS VEGETATIVE DAMAGE IN CLARK COUNTY.  ALTHOUGH
   GUST FRONT IS WELL REMOVED FROM ANY THUNDER...POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING
   GUSTS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH NERN CORNER SD BEFORE ASSOCIATED DENSITY
   CURRENT WEAKENS.  ISOLATED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP ATOP OUTFLOW POOL AND
   BEHIND GUST FRONT...BUT SVR POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED ATTM.  PER
   COORD W/FSD...SERN SD IS BEING REMOVED FROM WW...AND REMAINING
   PORTIONS WW MAY BE EXPIRATION OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...
   
   46589720 47089803 47029929 49049937 48999786 47399740
   46829526 45209639 45169756

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1019
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0507 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS N-CENTRAL/WRN NY.
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 291007Z - 291200Z
   
   AIR MASS ABOVE SFC APPEARS TO BE DESTABILIZING IN PROSPECTIVE INFLOW
   REGION OF TSTM CLUSTER THAT WAS MOVING SEWD ACROSS ERN LAKE ONTARIO
   AS OF 0945Z.  STRONGEST CELLS MAY PRODUCE HAIL AS THEY MOVE SEWD
   ACROSS AREA BOUNDED BY SERN SHORE OF LAKE ONTARIO AND
   ROC...UCA...BGM...ELM. WW NOT ANTICIPATED BECAUSE OF MRGL NATURE OF
   EVENT AND SMALL TIME/SPATIAL SCALE.
   
   MODIFIED RUC SOUNDINGS INITIALLY SHOW UNFAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   CONDITIONS BOTH SFC AND ALOFT OVER MOST OF THIS AREA...WITH ALMOST
   NO BUOYANCY...WHEN MODIFIED FOR LATEST SFC OBS.
   HOWEVER...INCREASINGLY MOIST WLY LLJ -- UP TO ABOUT 30 KT AS
   INDICATED FROM BUF VWP -- SHOULD LEAD TO NEAR SATURATION AROUND 850
   MB LEVEL...AND STEEPENED LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES THROUGH WAA.
   RESULT SHOULD BE NARROW CORRIDOR OF ELEVATED MUCAPES 500-1000 J/KG.
   SMALL ZONE OF ENHANCED 40-45 KT MIDLEVEL FLOW MOVING ACROSS THIS
   AREA MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH TIGHTENED MESOBETA SCALE HEIGHT GRADIENT
   ON SW SIDE OF AN MCV...PRODUCED INITIALLY BY MCS THAT DEVELOPED
   ABOUT 30 HOURS AGO ACROSS WI.  THIS MAY ENHANCE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   ENOUGH TO AID ORGANIZATION OF ELEVATED/MULTICELLULAR TSTMS AND
   INTRODUCE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED HAIL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...
   
   43527743 43477688 43597653 43767618 43707562 43137536
   42387550 42207600 42167689 43087766 43437778

[dean]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1021
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1122 AM CDT MON MAY 29 2006

AREAS AFFECTED...MN

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL

VALID 291622Z - 291815Z

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT. A WW
WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON...PERHAPS EARLIER.

ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SIGNIFICANT UPPER TROUGH LIFTING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...MODELS SUGGEST STEEP MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN MOIST
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA. WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
IN THE MID/UPPER 60S...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES MIXED LAYER CAPE
IS ON THE ORDER OF 3000 TO 4000 J/KG. LOWER/MID-LEVEL INHIBITION IS
STILL SUBSTANTIAL IN MOST AREAS...BUT BEGINNING TO WEAKEN WITH
INCREASING INSOLATION.

ALTHOUGH STRONGEST MID/UPPER FORCING SEEMS LIKELY TO REMAIN TO THE
WEST OF SURFACE FRONT...MODELS SUGGEST ENOUGH LIFT IN CAPPING LAYER
TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH PRIMARY
DEVELOPMENT PROBABLY WILL NOT OCCUR UNTIL NEAR/SHORTLY AFTER THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS...INITIATION APPEARS POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
18-19Z...NEAR FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO NORTHWEST
MINNESOTA. A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COVERAGE IS THEN EXPECTED EASTWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL MINNESOTA...MAINLY NEAR/NORTH OF ST. CLOUD
INTO THE INTERNATIONAL FALLS AREA...THROUGH 21Z. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MAY NOT BE STRONG...BUT MODERATE LOW/MID-LEVEL FLOW FIELDS WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO RISK FOR DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS IN FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN STRONGER CELLS.

..KERR.. 05/29/2006


ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

48239595 48869588 49629545 50709549 50819398 50289254
49919180 48989218 48479258 47419320 46289356 44319433
44689510 45459571 46529593 47589595

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1022
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN MN...PARTS OF WRN WI/NRN IA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...
   
   VALID 292002Z - 292200Z
   
   SEVERE THREAT IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY.  CONTINUE WW 419.
   
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO LIFT THROUGH THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS.  WHILE PRIMARY FORCING FOR LARGE-SCALE ASCENT REMAINS TO THE
   WEST OF THE SURFACE FRONT...AN AREA OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING IN
   WARM SECTOR TO THE EAST HAS AIDED ONGOING VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF ST. CLOUD INTO AREAS WEST OF INTERNATIONAL
   FALLS. THIS FORCING IS EXPECTED TO LIFT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF
   NORTHEAST MINNESOTA BY 30/00Z.
   
   EMBEDDED WITHIN THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP
   LAPSE RATES...HIGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
   3000 TO 4000 J/KG...DAMAGING DOWNBURSTS AND LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY
   NEXT FEW HOURS.  EVENTUALLY...MERGING COLD POOLS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO
   BROADER SCALE DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WEST THROUGH NORTHWEST OF
   DULUTH INTO THE ARROWHEAD BY 22-23Z.
   
   FARTHER SOUTH...DESPITE WEAK MID-LEVEL FORCING...WEAKENING
   INHIBITION AND STRENGTHENING LIFT ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF SURFACE FRONT
   WILL PROBABLY SUPPORT ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WEST OF THE
   INTERSTATE 35 CORRIDOR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF MINNESOTA LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON.  ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP INTO AREAS NEAR/EAST  OF FORT
   DODGE IA...BUT DEVELOPMENT FARTHER SOUTH/SOUTHWEST MAY BE INHIBITED
   BY STABILIZING INFLUENCE OF CONVECTIVE CLUSTER OVER NORTHWEST
   MISSOURI.
   
   ..KERR.. 05/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   47819425 49559384 50499379 49989130 48929036 47769050
   46229227 45139267 43919312 42899399 42719462 43909423
   44829399 46259427

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1023
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...S CNTRL KS/W OK/NW TX
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 292032Z - 292230Z
   
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND NORTHWEST
   TEXAS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREAT. A WW IS
   POSSIBLE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING CU FIELD
   AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT STRETCHES ROUGHLY FROM GBD TO NW OF CDS
   TO LBB. AS DAYTIME HEATING CONTINUES...THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE
   FRONT CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE...WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING FROM
   AROUND 2000 TO ABOVE 3000 J/KG. A RELATIVELY STRONG CAPPING
   INVERSION IS IN PLACE OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER...CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE FRONT AND AT A DRYLINE/FRONTAL INTERSECTION NW OF CDS IS
   EXPECTED TO HELP TRIGGER CONVECTION BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
   VERTICAL WIND SHEAR PROFILES INDICATE WEAK WIND SPEEDS AND LITTLE
   DIRECTIONAL SHEAR...AND THEREFORE ANY STORMS THAT FORM ARE EXPECTED
   TO BE MAINLY MULTICELLUAR IN NATURE. ADDITIONALLY...GIVEN THE
   MODERATE SURFACE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS IN THE REGION...STORMS
   WILL BE FAIRLY HIGH-BASED. THE VERY UNSTABLE THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT...WHICH WILL APPROACH MLCAPE VALUES OF 4000 J/KG BY
   00Z...WILL SUPPORT LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
   
   ..LEVIT.. 05/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...SJT...LUB...AMA...
   
   38809816 38729715 38159709 37379753 36769771 35649813
   35039826 34239866 33699913 33279974 33160017 33170065
   33240135 33890115 34410072 34920028 35450008 36349978
   36909956 37419901 38079847 38489822

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1024
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0603 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NERN IA...WRN WI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 419...420...
   
   VALID 292303Z - 300030Z
   
   WEAK COLD FRONT CONTINUES DEVELOPING EAST INTO VERY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS FROM ERN MN/NERN IA ACROSS WRN WI. LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL
   CIRCULATION AND BROADLY DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO
   MAINTAIN VIGOROUS DEEP CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING.
   STRONGER DEEP LAYER SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS MN PORTIONS OF WATCH 419
   WHERE 40KT MID LEVEL FLOW EXISTS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR.
   ADDITIONALLY...A LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARY OVER THE AREA MAY CONTRIBUTE
   TO LOCALLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR. HOWEVER...LOWER INSTABILITY TO
   THE SOUTH OF THE LAKE BREEZE MAY LIMIT SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL CLOSER
   TO THE LAKE.
   
   STORMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO WRN WI THROUGH THE EVENING.
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THIS AREA WAS WEAKER THAN
   FARTHER NORTH. HOWEVER...GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY... EXPECT
   ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
   EAST INTO SERN PORTIONS OF WW 419...AND ERN PORTIONS OF WW 420 OVER
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DVN...DLH...ARX...MPX...DMX...
   
   42259174 42259482 45379405 48659391 48119097 45379062

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1025
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0745 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 421...
   
   VALID 300045Z - 300215Z
   
   SMALL AREA OF INTENSE CONVECTION PERSISTS ACROSS WOODS AND GRANT
   COUNTY OK THIS EVENING WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
   STALLED COLD FRONT NEWD INTO KS. MEANWHILE...ACTIVITY SWWD ALONG THE
   DRYLINE INTO WRN OK HAS DIMINISHED.
   
   DIAGNOSTIC DATA...ICT AND HBR PROFILERS...SUGGESTED THAT KS STORMS
   WERE OCCURRING IN AN AREA WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS. THIS
   IS CONFIRMED BY LEFT-SPLIT STORM NOW MOVING THROUGH STAFFORD COUNTY.
   FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK BUT DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL FLOW AND MESOSCALE
   FORCING ALONG THE COLD POOL ASSOCIATED WITH OK CONVECTION MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN VERY UNSTABLE AIR
   MASS TONIGHT. THIS DEVELOPMENT MAY BE FURTHER DRIVEN BY INCREASING
   NOCTURNAL LOW LEVEL JET DIRECTED PREFERENTIALLY INTO THE FRONT AND
   NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION. GIVEN MEAGER
   SHEAR...EXPECT PRIMARILY MULTICELLULAR STORMS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WIND/LARGE HAIL...AND HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...
   
   38949831 38889676 34549878 34540039 37279933

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1026
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1036 PM CDT MON MAY 29 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...ERN KS...NRN/CNTRL OK
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 300336Z - 300600Z
   
   SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL...LOCALLY HIGH WINDS...AND TORRENTIAL RAIN
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS THROUGH LATE
   TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL WATCHES ARE NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED DUE TO
   SCATTERED/RANDOM NATURE OF SEVERE THREAT...AND LACK OF LARGER SCALE
   ORGANIZATION GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW ENVIRONMENT.
   
   MOST INTENSE ACTIVITY HAS BEEN ALONG THE STALLED SURFACE FRONT
   ACROSS NERN KS LATE THIS EVENING. THIS COMPLEX HAS RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED A LARGE COLD POOL AND STRONGER UPDRAFTS ARE LIKELY TO SHOW
   SOME EWD/SEWD PROPAGATION INTO INCREASING LOW LEVEL INFLOW. SIMILAR
   SCENARIO APPEARS TO BE UNFOLDING ACROSS NWRN OK WHERE ADDITIONAL
   UPDRAFTS HAVE DEVELOPED ATOP MCS COLD POOL AS MOIST LOW LEVEL SLY
   FLOW IN WEAKLY CAPPED ENVIRONMENT FUELS NEW DEVELOPMENT.
   
   FORWARD PROPAGATING CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS
   WERE OVER SCNTRL KS AND NCNTRL OK. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD  CONTINUE TO
   BE SUPPORTED BY INFLOW OF VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR AND MESOSCALE
   ASCENT ALONG NUMEROUS RESIDUAL OUTFLOWS SITUATED ACROSS SERN KS AND
   NERN OK. ENTIRE REGION LIES BENEATH PRONOUNCED THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE
   AND GENERALLY WEAK STEERING CURRENTS SUGGESTING THAT LOCALLY
   EXCESSIVE RAINFALL COULD OCCUR FROM EITHER REPEAT OR TRAINING
   CONVECTION. DISCRETE CELLS ENCOUNTERING POCKETS OF SLIGHTLY STRONGER
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAY ALSO ACQUIRE SUPERCELLULAR CHARACTERISTICS
   LEADING TO GREATER HAIL POTENTIAL.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...EAX...TSA...OAX...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...
   
   36989666 35589745 35489891 36319983 37849929 40739682
   41169575 39839543 38019649

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1027
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0116 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS EXTREME SERN NEB...SWRN IA...EXTREME NWRN
   MO...EXTREME NERN KS.
   
   CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL
   
   VALID 300616Z - 300845Z
   
   CORRECTED FOR TYPOS IN HEADER
   
   SMALL MCS -- NOW PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND INTERMITTENT REPORTS
   OF HAIL AOB 1 INCH DIAMETER OVER SERN NEB -- IS FCST TO MAINTAIN
   ITSELF AS IT PROPAGATES SLOWLY EWD/ESEWD TOWARD NWRN MO/SWRN IA.
   ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE...ORGANIZED SVR THREAT
   IS TOO MRGL FOR WW. 
   
   MAIN HAZARD WILL COME FROM HEAVY RAIN RATES -- 2-3 INCHES/HOUR.
   SLOW MOTION OF COMPLEX...AND CELL MERGERS ARISING FROM DEVELOPMENT
   OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY IN INFLOW REGION...WILL COMPOUND THREAT.
   RICH LOW LEVEL AIR MASS WILL BE LIFTED OVER SLOW MOVING OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY AS ADDITIONAL CELLS DEVELOP ON BOTH SIDES OF THAT
   BOUNDARY...AIDING EWD PROPAGATION OF WHOLE TSTM CLUSTER.  ACTIVITY
   MAY TURN SOMEWHAT SEWD IN NEXT 2-3 HOURS TOWARD AXIS OF GREATEST
   INSTABILITY -- BETWEEN STJ-MKC AND AHEAD OF OUTFLOW FROM SEPARATE
   COMPLEX NOW EVIDENT BETWEEN EMP-MHK.  COMPLEX SHOULD REMAIN
   EFFICIENT PRECIP GENERATOR GIVEN FAVORABLY MOIST AND BUOYANT INFLOW
   AIR.  MODIFIED TOP RAOB AND RUC FCST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST ELEVATED
   MUCAPE 2000-3000 J/KG...15-16 G/KG MEAN MIXING RATIO...AND PW AROUND
   1.5 INCHES THAT ALSO IS EVIDENT IN LATEST GPS PW DATA OVER AREA.
   ALTHOUGH LLJ DOES NOT APPEAR PARTICULARLY STRONG OVER MOST OF THIS
   AREA...NARROW CORRIDOR OF 30-50 KT SLY FLOW JUST ABOVE SFC IS BEING
   SAMPLED BY EAX VWP AND MAY AID THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...
   
   40099627 40889580 41199559 41209525 41189504 41139462
   40709477 40369494 39929525 39889575

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1028
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0430 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS E-CENTRAL/SERN CO...SWRN AND EXTREME
   W-CENTRAL KS.
   
   CONCERNING...CONVECTIVE TRENDS...SVR TSTM POTENTIAL.
   
   VALID 300930Z - 301230Z
   
   RAPID INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD CONTINUE OVER REGION
   WITH OCCASIONAL SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE.
   
   SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS QUASISTATIONARY FRONTAL ZONE -- SOMEWHAT DIFFUSED
   BY OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS
   -- EXTENDS FROM SERN NEB SWWD ACROSS RSL/HYS AREA...TO BETWEEN
   LBL-EHA...TO BETWEEN DHT-CAO.  FRONT MAY DRIFT WNWWD OVER KS AND
   OK/TX PANHANDLES.  BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS AND WAA ATOP OUTFLOW POOLS
   MAY SUSTAIN/ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER SWRN KS AHEAD OF FRONT.
   
   NW OF FRONT...LOW LEVEL ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND CONVERGENT 850 MB FLOW
   WILL CONTINUE OVER SERN CO AND FAR WRN KS.  THIS SHOULD RESULT IN
   PARCELS LIFTED TO LFC...AMIDST FAVORABLE SELY FLOW AND MOIST
   ADVECTION INTO BOTTOM OF CONVECTIVE LIFTED LAYER.  MOISTURE CHANNEL
   IMAGERY INDICATES WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING NEWD
   ACROSS NWRN NM/SWRN CO.  COOLING IR CLOUD TOPS ARE EVIDENT IN
   FOREGOING MID/UPPER LEVEL CLOUD PLUME...BOTH FROM CONVECTIVE TOPS
   AND FROM ASCENT WITHIN NON CONVECTIVE CLOUD BEARING LAYERS.  THIS
   INDICATES LARGE SCALE LIFT REASONABLY IS INCREASING ACROSS THIS
   REGION UNDER COMBINED INFLUENCE OF MIDLEVEL DPVA AHEAD OF THAT
   TROUGH...LOW LEVEL WAA...AND UVV BENEATH RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
   UPPER JET MAX. MLCAPES IN RUC SOUNDINGS INCREASE TO AS MUCH AS 2500
   J/KG THROUGH 13Z...BUT WITH DECREASING EFFECTIVE SHEAR RELATED TO
   WEAKENING SELYS WITH TIME.  STILL...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE
   FOR SOME STORMS TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.
   
   ..EDWARDS.. 05/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   
   38210440 38900358 39450179 39420074 39129999 38639956
   37829925 37349977 37120101 37080246 37610412

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1029
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN IA...SRN WI AND NRN IL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301613Z - 301815Z
   
   STORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   ACROSS NERN IA INTO SRN WI. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP FARTHER
   S INTO NRN IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
   HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS. AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
   
   A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS S CNTRL WI THEN SWWD AS A STATIONARY
   FRONT THROUGH ERN AND SRN IA WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM NERN IA
   EWD THROUGH SRN WI. THE ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE WITH
   MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON. STORMS HAVE
   BEEN INCREASING ACROSS SRN WI IN VICINITY OF THE E-W BOUNDARY.
   WEAKENING CAP AND ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM MCV MOVING NEWD THROUGH ERN
   IA WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN
   VICINITY OF PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED BOUNDARIES. CONVECTION HAS BECOME
   RATHER WIDESPREAD ACROSS SRN WI...AND THIS MAY TEND TO LIMIT
   DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL IN THIS AREA. FARTHER S ACROSS NRN IL
   FORCING FOR INITIATION WILL BE LESS FOCUSED...BUT WEAK CAP AND
   STRONGER HEATING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW
   STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. AMBIENT VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK.
   HOWEVER...A BAND OF 30 KT 500 MB FLOW ON SRN PERIPHERY OF MCV WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO SLIGHTLY BETTER WIND PROFILES AND POSSIBLY BETTER
   STORM ORGANIZATION OVER NRN IL...BUT STORM MODE WILL REMAIN
   MULTICELLULAR. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MODEST...BUT THE
   THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT MAY BECOME AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT
   FOR ISOLATED HAIL AND A FEW DOWNBURSTS...ESPECIALLY IF STORMS MANAGE
   TO DEVELOP S OF ONGOING ACTIVITY.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...
   
   41609130 43309085 43838806 42508799 41538770 40809048

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1030
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 AM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN KY...MUCH OF IND...WRN OH AND SRN MI
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301653Z - 301900Z
   
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE INTO THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. OVERALL THREAT
   IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE SUFFICIENT FOR A WW.
   
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY
   FROM IND INTO OH AND ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. THIS REGION IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN
   UPPER RIDGE WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR AND MODEST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
   HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY...MLCAPE
   AROUND 2000 J/KG...AND LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS UP TO
   25F WILL SUPPORT THREAT OF STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS AND HAIL. LACK OF A LOW LEVEL FOCUS AND WEAK
   VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST ACTIVITY WILL BE DISORGANIZED AND PULSE IN
   CHARACTER...WITH ANY SEVERE EVENTS REMAINING BRIEF AND ISOLATED.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CLE...ILN...DTX...LMK...IWX...IND...PAH...ILX...
   
   41088257 39698304 37978523 37658793 41148665 42058465

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1031
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...WRN VT...WRN MA...WRN CT...NERN PA...NRN
   NJ
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301721Z - 301915Z
   
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AS THEY
   DEVELOP SWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE NERN STATES AND NEW ENGLAND THIS
   AFTERNOON. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
   STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL. WW WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NECESSARY...BUT
   AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.
   
   THIS AFTERNOON A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS N-S ACROSS EXTREME ERN NY.
   ALONG AND W OF THIS BOUNDARY...THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPE FROM 2000 TO 2500 J/KG. STORMS HAVE BEEN
   INCREASING ACROSS NERN NY INTO NWRN VT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AS
   WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. WV IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   ADVANCING SEWD TOWARD NERN NY...WHICH MIGHT CONTRIBUTE TO A GREATER
   CONCENTRATION OF STORMS IN THIS AREA. ACTIVITY IS EMBEDDED WITHIN
   MODEST 15 TO 20 KT 700-500 MB FLOW AND WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD SEWD.
   OTHER MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY MAY DEVELOP FARTHER S. VERTICAL SHEAR
   IS WEAK AND SUPPORTIVE OF MULTICELLS. HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC
   ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO A THREAT OF ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS
   AND HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.
   
   ..DIAL.. 05/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
   
   43257535 44747457 44877335 44007280 42327265 40787325
   40487445 41217547

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1032
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/CNTRL KS INTO FAR NWRN OK/NERN TX PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 301848Z - 302045Z
   
   ELEVATED TSTMS WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS SWRN
   KS/OK PANHANDLE AND MAY EVENTUALLY BACKBUILD AND BECOME INCREASINGLY
   SFC-BASED FURTHER S. FURTHER E...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
   ALONG QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM P28 TO SLN. STEEP LAPSE-RATES AND
   MODEST DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL PROVIDE A POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS. AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW IN THE
   NEXT HOUR OR SO.
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS REMAIN ONGOING ACROSS SWRN KS EARLY THIS
   AFTERNOON...S OF DECAYING MCS NOW IN S-CNTRL NEB. STORMS HAVE
   GENERALLY BEEN CONFINED N OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...FROM PYX TO
   P28 TO SLN. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE MUCAPES IN THIS ZONE
   FROM AROUND 1000 J/KG WITH EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS. THIS
   SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL LARGE HAIL THREAT.
   
   ACTIVITY FURTHER E...FROM BARBER TO MCPHERSON COUNTIES KS...ARE IN A
   MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES OF 1500 TO 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS MODEST /0-6 KM AROUND 20 KT PER HBR
   PROFILER/...STEEP LAPSE-RATES SHOULD SUPPORT LARGE-HAIL AND DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT. STORMS MAY EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO A MULTICELLULAR
   CLUSTER TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...
   
   35859961 35290021 35050088 35000180 35500184 36040162
   36930110 37660037 37899927 38419840 38879782 39439740
   39679703 39419672 39139678 38309705 37499760 36579864

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1033
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0511 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PLAINS OF CO/FAR NERN NM/FAR WRN OK PANHANDLE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 302211Z - 302345Z
   
   SCATTERED TSTMS ARE INCREASING ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES FROM ERN
   CO INTO FAR NERN NM...AND SHOULD SPREAD FURTHER E TOWARDS SW KS/NW
   TX AND OK PANHANDLES. MODEST...BUT INCREASING...INSTABILITY AND
   MODERATE SHEAR WILL SUPPORT AT LEAST A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT. A WW
   WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY.
   
   TSTMS HAVE ORGANIZED AND INCREASED IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST HOUR
   FROM ERN ADAMS/ERN ARAPAHOE COUNTIES SWWD INTO ERN FREMONT COUNTIES
   IN ERN CO. FURTHER S...MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES IN UNION
   COUNTY NM. RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STORMS EXIST IN A
   MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH MLCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.
   CONTINUED LOW-LEVEL MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASING
   INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS THE ACTIVITY SPREADS E
   TOWARDS THE KS BORDER. ZONE OF 40 KT WSWLY 500 MB FLOW WILL SUPPORT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40 TO 50 KTS AND POTENTIAL SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.
   LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES. IN ADDITION...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO EXIST WITH
   LOW-LEVEL ENELY FLOW BENEATH WSWLY FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...GENERALLY
   WEAK WIND SPEEDS IN THE 0-1 KM AGL LAYER /PER AREA VAD PROFILERS/
   WILL TEND TO MITIGATE THIS THREAT.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   36720479 37190490 38190511 38830497 39530448 39790421
   39990361 40110327 40100270 39800210 39520187 38930180
   37950178 37170199 36730247 36330299 36170350 36150423
   36350453

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1034
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0519 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...ERN NY...WRN VT/MA/CT
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 422...
   
   VALID 302219Z - 302315Z
   
   ...LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD DEVELOP
   INTO THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND SRN CATSKILL MOUNTAINS OVER THE
   NEXT HOUR...
   
   ARC OF STRONG TO OCCASIONALLY SEVERE CONVECTION HAS BECOME
   ESTABLISHED ALONG LEADING EDGE OF MATURE MCS COLD POOL FROM DELAWARE
   COUNTY NY EWD ACROSS THE HUDSON VALLEY TO BERKSHIRE COUNTY MA.
   COMPLEX OF STORMS WAS MOVING SOUTH AT ABOUT 30KT AND WILL CONTINUE
   TO ENCOUNTER WARM AND UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS...PRIMARILY
   FROM NERN PA TO SERN NY OVER THE NEXT 1-2 HOURS. DESPITE GENERALLY
   WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW...DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME CONVECTIVE-SCALE
   ORGANIZATION TO THE COMPLEX...COUPLED WITH MODEST DCAPE
   VALUES...WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF LOCALLY DAMAGING DOWNBURST
   WINDS...AND SOME HAIL...INTO THE SRN PORTION OF WATCH 422.
   
   GIVEN GENERALLY WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING AND SHEAR...AND TIME OF
   DAY...AN ADDITIONAL WATCH DOES NOT APPEAR LIKELY AT THIS TIME.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...BTV...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...
   
   41457338 41397473 41037522 41517608 42637599 43347572
   44067521 44097406 43237225 41507277

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1035
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0652 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...TX PANHANDLE...NW OK...SERN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 423...
   
   VALID 302352Z - 310115Z
   
   TWO MCSS...ONE ACROSS TX PANHANDLE AND ANOTHER IN SERN KS...WITH AN
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL IN BETWEEN ACROSS NWRN OK WILL CONTINUE TO MAKE
   VERY SLOW PROGRESS EWD/SWD. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS THE TX
   PANHANDLE INTO NWRN OK. TRANSITION TO A HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT HAS
   ALREADY OCCURRED WITH SERN KS MCS AND IS LIKELY OCCURRING WITH TX
   PANHANDLE MCS.
   
   EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS WITHIN LARGER MCS ACROSS TX PANHANDLE HAVE A
   HISTORY OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND REPORTS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
   SPREAD VERY SLOWLY EWD/BACKBUILD SWWD IN AXIS OF 1000 TO 2000 J/KG
   MLCAPES. MOST INTENSE CELLS SHOULD BE ACROSS BAILEY/CASTRO/SWISHER
   COUNTIES NEWD TO HEMPHILL/WHEELER COUNTIES OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
   ISOLATED SWD MOVING SUPERCELL IN BECKHAM COUNTY OK SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO POSE A LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO...WHILE BEING
   ABSORBED INTO TX PANHANDLE MCS.
   
   FURTHER NE...VIS IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THE COLD POOL OUTFLOW FROM THE
   LINEAR MCS ACROSS SERN KS HAS PUSH OUT AHEAD OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE
   LINE. THIS IS LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEAKENING TREND OVER THE
   PAST HOUR OF THE LINEAR MCS. ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS
   OCCURRING THIS COLD POOL...VERY WEAK DEEP LAYER SHEAR SHOULD
   PRECLUDE AN ADDITIONAL WW ISSUANCE DOWNSTREAM. HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT
   WILL REMAIN DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE MCS.
   
   ..GRAMS.. 05/30/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...TOP...ICT...OUN...LUB...AMA...ABQ...
   
   35530302 36010200 36690068 36949957 36969839 37119774
   37729711 38629606 38419558 37809568 36949594 36549669
   35989772 35209889 34819959 34460006 34060124 33850214
   33820305

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1036
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0949 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 424...
   
   VALID 310249Z - 310415Z
   
   CONDITIONS REMAIN MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SERN
   CO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT HAS ONLY BEEN
   ISOLATED SO FAR. PARTS OF WW 424 MAY BE CLEARED OVER THE NEXT HOUR
   OR SO.
   
   MOIST POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
   CROSSING THE ROCKIES COULD STILL SPUR ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS VALID PORTIONS OF WW 454 THIS EVENING. RECENT DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS BACA COUNTY EAST INTO SWRN KS APPEARS TO BE IN RESPONSE TO
   LIFT FROM APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ACTING ON DEEP LAYER FRONTAL
   ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THIS AREA. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND STRONG
   EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION COULD STILL LEAD TO ENHANCED
   STORM UPDRAFTS WITH GREATEST THREAT BEING LARGE HAIL. LATEST
   TRENDS/FORECAST DATA AND TIME OF DAY SUGGEST THAT NRN/WRN PORTIONS
   OF WATCH 424 MAY BE CLEARED PRIOR TO EXPIRATION.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...AMA...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   39510498 39620281 39940205 36990203 36910488 36930506
   37700541 38000502

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1037
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1139 PM CDT TUE MAY 30 2006
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN CO...SWRN KS
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
   
   VALID 310439Z - 310615Z
   
   A SEVERE TSTM WATCH MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN CO AND
   SWRN KS SHORTLY.
   
   TSTMS HAVE INCREASED FROM THE MOUNTAINS OF SERN CO EWD TO SWRN KS
   LATE TONIGHT AS MID LEVEL IMPULSE ENHANCES LIFT ACROSS DEEP-LAYER
   SYNOPTIC FRONTAL ZONE SITUATED ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST DIAGNOSTIC
   DATA CONTINUES TO INDICATE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-1500
   J/KG/ EXISTING WITHIN POST-FRONTAL AIR MASS. LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW
   TOPPED BY STRENGTHENING DIFFLUENT MID LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE
   FORCING AND SHEAR NEEDED TO SUSTAIN SEVERE STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY
   DEVELOP UPSCALE INTO AN MCS OVERNIGHT AND SPREAD EWD/SEWD ACROSS
   SWRN KS WITH LARGE HAIL AND SOME WIND POTENTIAL.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 05/31/2006
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...ABQ...
   
   37070099 37020324 36970501 38500427 38600175 38479984
   38299898 37049915