Texas Fall-2015

[Ntxw]

12z la la land euro would be a fairly significant front. Not snow or anything but maybe first true polar front and not of Pacific origin.

[dhweather]

12z la la land euro would be a fairly significant front. Not snow or anything but maybe first true polar front and not of Pacific origin.

Impossible, the Euro NEVER makes mistakes.


Props to the GFS for NAILING last weekend.

[Ntxw]

Speaking of the subtropical jet, circulating around is news of it's presence which is about to kick up into top gear for winter. Probably the strongest STJ since 2009-2010. You can see it clearly as a separate (from Hawaii to Baja to southern plains and NE) entity from the Pacific/Polar jet up north.






Stormy times, and more cloud cover vs sun hours the next 3-5 months. The pattern of systems impacting about every 3-5 days began after the 20th of October and will likely continue.

[TheProfessor]

It was a lovely 74 degrees today, I think I'm becoming more like Wxman, If it isn't going to snow, I'd rather it be 65-80 degrees.

[Tireman4]

It was a lovely 74 degrees today, I think I'm becoming more like Wxman, If it isn't going to snow, I'd rather it be 65-80 degrees.

You will get snow ..do not worry..

[Ntxw]

It was a lovely 74 degrees today, I think I'm becoming more like Wxman, If it isn't going to snow, I'd rather it be 65-80 degrees.

That's about the temperature it is here, though for us is about normal. Up there normal is about mid 50s so roughly 20F above average for highs. Cities around the Lakes are hitting daily records. But as Tireman4 it will snow there just wait

[TheProfessor]

It was a lovely 74 degrees today, I think I'm becoming more like Wxman, If it isn't going to snow, I'd rather it be 65-80 degrees.

That's about the temperature it is here, though for us is about normal. Up there normal is about mid 50s so roughly 20F above average for highs. Cities around the Lakes are hitting daily records. But as Tireman4 it will snow there just wait

I know it will snow, but I would prefer a winter where I get a foot of snow then a few days later it melts and it warms up a bit then another storm comes, Apparently last year the lakes region had weeks where it was just cold and dry, no snowy fun, The El Nino should limit that though.

[Brent]

AFD from FWD about Thursday:

PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY MORNING AS
WARM AIR ADVECTION AND LARGE SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BOTH
INCREASE. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE ORGANIZED THURSDAY AFTERNOON
AS A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/DRYLINE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE REGION. HOW
FAR EAST THIS BOUNDARY MOVES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND HOW MUCH
SURFACE DESTABILIZATION OCCURS AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE WILL
DETERMINE HOW ORGANIZED THE STORMS BECOME AND HOW MUCH RAIN AND
SEVERE WEATHER WE WILL RECEIVE. AS OF NOW...WE EXPECT THE DRYLINE
TO REACH NEAR A LINE FROM SHERMAN TO WEATHERFORD TO COMANCHE BY
MID AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH STORMS ORGANIZING AND INTENSIFYING AS
THEY MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE LINE THROUGH THE EVENING. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS AND EVEN A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. ALTHOUGH THE LINE OF STORMS
SHOULD MOVE STEADILY EAST...THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR
STORM TRAINING WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE QPF FROM
THE THURSDAY MORNING ACTIVITY SHOULD BE GENERALLY LESS THAN ONE
HALF INCH. THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE A
POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN WITH
SOME ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS.

[weatherdude1108]

EWX has some general uncertainty in pops, especially at the end of their forecast for next Sunday into Monday.
Like Ntxw alluded to earlier, looks like Mr. Nino is here to stay for a while.

These regular rains (in combination with cooler climo. and vegetation going into dormancy), should help to get both Travis and Buchanan to their respective flood pool (full) elevations (11 feet to go for Travis; 14 feet to go for Buchanan as of today). It may even go beyond full to floodgate operations eventually. Been a while since flood gate operations have happened on those two lakes. During the historic Christmas 1991 El Nino, a lot of water was flowing.

http://floodstatus.lcra.org/

http://www.floodsafety.com/texas/images ... 91_Map.gif

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
258 PM CST TUE NOV 3 2015

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...SEVERAL MODELS
HAVE BEEN KEYING IN ON A MID LEVEL IMPULSE IN THE SOUTHWEST
SUBTROPICAL FLOW ALOFT MOVING OUT OF MEXICO AND THROUGH THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING...AT THE SAME TIME A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THROUGH THE
CWA. THE GFS...ALONG WITH HI RES ARW/NMM AND TT WRF ARE INDICATING
PRECIP DEVELOPING SW TO NE NEAR AND TO THE WEST OF I-35 WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. PRECIP WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO 2.0-2.1 INCHES
THROUGH THIS AREA...APPROACHING MAX VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. A
FEW LOCALIZED POCKETS OF HEAVIER RAINFALL MAY BE POSSIBLE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA APPROACH 50 KTS WEDNESDAT NIGHT.
WITH MUCAPE VALUES AROUND 1500 J/KG COULD YIELD A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THIS TIME ACROSS WESTERN AREAS.

IMPULSE CONTINUES NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CWA THRUSDAY
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE STRONGER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO
NORTHWEST TEXAS. DURING THIS TIME FOCUS THURSDAY AFTERNOON FOR
HEAVIER RAINFALL SHIFTS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CWA.

DE-STABILIZATION LATE THU AFTERNOON WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF
STORMS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST ALONG THE COLD FRONT ADVANCING SOUTH
INTO THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY. PARAMETERS FAVORABLE FOR A FEW
DISCRETE STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND THROUGH
THE EVENING ACROSS THE HILL COUNTRY AND NORTHERN RIO GRANDE AS THE
FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST.

THE FRONT APPROACHES THE I-35 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...MOVING EAST AND SOUTH FRIDAY MORNING. AN ORGANIZED
LINE OF STORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR AND EAST OF I-35 THU NIGHT.
WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE...THE TAP OF BOTH GULF
AND PACIFIC MOISTURE IS YIELDING PRECIP WATER VALUES THU NIGHT
ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR OF 2.1-2.2 INCHES PER THE GFS...AGAIN
NEARING OR AT ALL TIME RECORD VALUES FOR EARLY NOVEMBER. THEREFORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE A POSSIBILITY LATE IN THE EVENING
THURSDAY AND OVERNIGHT. WPC CURRENTLY HAS THE AREA IN A SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCEEDING FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE RAINFALL THAT
HAS FALLEN THE PAST TWO WEEKS THAT HAS LEFT THE AREA SATURATED...
ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING
CONCERNS. QPF AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST...
HOWEVER SOME ISOLATED POCKETS UP TO 4 INCHES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.

THE SURFACE FRONT SLIPS SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING ALONG
WITH FOCUS FOR HEAVIER RAINFALL. HOWEVER...THE H85 FRONT HANGS UP
OVER THE AREA...AND AS MEAN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS HANGS BACK TO
THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE SUBTROPICAL MID AND UPPER
LEVEL TAP OF MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA. WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
RETURNING OVER THE AREA AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT INCREASING...CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE...HIGHS ONLY IN
THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE PRECIP FORECAST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

[Brent]

No surprise here with the stream of storms ahead:

[TheProfessor]

I can dig that map.

[Ntxw]

It was a lovely 74 degrees today, I think I'm becoming more like Wxman, If it isn't going to snow, I'd rather it be 65-80 degrees.

That's about the temperature it is here, though for us is about normal. Up there normal is about mid 50s so roughly 20F above average for highs. Cities around the Lakes are hitting daily records. But as Tireman4 it will snow there just wait

I know it will snow, but I would prefer a winter where I get a foot of snow then a few days later it melts and it warms up a bit then another storm comes, Apparently last year the lakes region had weeks where it was just cold and dry, no snowy fun, The El Nino should limit that though.

The past 2 winters the EPO was the dominant factor. Lots of cold up there from it. It is the cold loading signal for all of North America. That is a very important question we are all wondering is how will the EPO interact with such a strong El Nino. Thus far it isn't favored one way or the other through fall, mostly oscillating weakly positive and negative. It seems though the past few weeks the PNA has been the driver, it has more linkage to the tropics I think. Unlike the EPO the PNA seems to be more prone to La Nina and El Nino and the MJO, especially bigger events.

[aggiecutter]

[Brent]

This is interesting and I hadn't really noticed it before:

@wxmanvic Going back to 1898, the latest in the fall for #DFW to reach 50F was 11/3 in 2004. Record now broken. Avg. date is 10/7. This wknd? #txwx

[txprog]

This is interesting and I hadn't really noticed it before:

@wxmanvic Going back to 1898, the latest in the fall for #DFW to reach 50F was 11/3 in 2004. Record now broken. Avg. date is 10/7. This wknd? #txwx

I have been paying attention to this and have posted about it several days ago. We are in record territory on this one.

[Brent]

Well the CMC is being crazy again... I had a big post typed up about the temperatures it was modeling at the end of next week(which would be much colder than anything this weekend has) and then

I had to check the precip maps...

[Ntxw]

Despite the records of warmth across the US to bring in November, snow across the NHEM have exploded into 2nd highest extent to date. Second to 1976. When it decides to flip, if its going to flip, snow will rapidly increase across the US. Just lacking cold air right now but the storms are there.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Despite the records of warmth across the US to bring in November, snow across the NHEM have exploded into 2nd highest extent to date. Second to 1976.

*Fistpump*

What are the mechanics behind this bringing more cold air down? Does it have to do with another PV in the siberia region which pumps higher heights into the arctic region? More likely to have SSW's?

[Ntxw]

Despite the records of warmth across the US to bring in November, snow across the NHEM have exploded into 2nd highest extent to date. Second to 1976.

*Fistpump*

What are the mechanics behind this bringing more cold air down? Does it have to do with another PV in the siberia region which pumps higher heights into the arctic region? More likely to have SSW's?

Easy terms, big snow strengthens semi perm Siberian high pressure early on. Heat flux from it attacks the polar vortex 50mb and up and lowers the AO. SSW are more likely to occur

Of course whether cause or effect, more snow also means much further south than normal. Thats good for cold air modification or lackthereof

[gboudx]

This is interesting and I hadn't really noticed it before:

@wxmanvic Going back to 1898, the latest in the fall for #DFW to reach 50F was 11/3 in 2004. Record now broken. Avg. date is 10/7. This wknd? #txwx

Urban sprawl and heat island have to be having an effect here. Many of the surrounding areas have dipped into the 40's already. Absent heat island affect, I bet DFW would've hit 50 by now as well. Denton, Arlington, Stephenville, Waxahachie, Rockwall have all dipped into the 40's. Recording stations in the heat island haven't. My point is that it hasn't been necessarily too warm to dip to 50, but artificial means have played a role. I guess they can only deal in records based on current situations, but it's not exactly an apples to apples comparison. 1898 Dallas is not 2015 Dallas.