Texas Spring 2025

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Ntxw
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#161 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 11, 2025 10:00 am

A bit different trajectory for this deep low system than last. The highest winds will be in west tx, northwest tx, panhandle, and Oklahoma. Windy elsewhere but probably not the magnitude of the last one outside of those zones. Of course if the system is further south then can expand the highest winds.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#162 Postby wxman22 » Tue Mar 11, 2025 10:20 am

The Euro shows wind gust over 65 mph here. Friday will be interesting to say the least just hope I don’t lose power while working. And that wildfires are kept at a minimum.The windstorm last week was crazy here. This one may be a little worse than the last one.


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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#163 Postby Gotwood » Tue Mar 11, 2025 10:50 am

What time Friday will the wind start? I’m supposed to be heading to flagstaff with the family but don’t want to be stuck driving in that kind of wind
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#164 Postby wxman22 » Tue Mar 11, 2025 11:53 am

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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#165 Postby cstrunk » Tue Mar 11, 2025 1:20 pm

The best time of the weather year is here. This week with highs in the 70's to low-80's with cool mornings and occasional thunderstorms is my kind of thing.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#166 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 11, 2025 1:41 pm

cstrunk wrote:The best time of the weather year is here. This week with highs in the 70's to low-80's with cool mornings and occasional thunderstorms is my kind of thing.


Concur, once acclimated this feels nice, and best of all cedar season is over!
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#167 Postby South Texas Storms » Tue Mar 11, 2025 4:38 pm

Still little to no hope in any weather pattern changes for the next week at least. Pretty much no rain in sight...and increasingly hot temperatures. Not good at all.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#168 Postby Brent » Tue Mar 11, 2025 4:56 pm

Some small town being evacuated here due to a grass fire :spam:

Hope this is not a sign of things to come
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#169 Postby Ntxw » Tue Mar 11, 2025 5:24 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:Still little to no hope in any weather pattern changes for the next week at least. Pretty much no rain in sight...and increasingly hot temperatures. Not good at all.


Winter was the chance for cool and rain. I knew once we got out of that, the -PDO/Nina combo would eventually take over and here it is. Got to love hot season.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#170 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Mar 11, 2025 7:34 pm

cstrunk wrote:The best time of the weather year is here. This week with highs in the 70's to low-80's with cool mornings and occasional thunderstorms is my kind of thing.


Idc for March. Way too windy for my liking, especially when you live out in the country like I do with nothing around to block the wind.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#171 Postby snownado » Tue Mar 11, 2025 8:01 pm

I'm loving the back-to-back cloud-free days!

DFW made it up to 75*F yesterday and 81*F today.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#172 Postby snownado » Tue Mar 11, 2025 8:04 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
cstrunk wrote:The best time of the weather year is here. This week with highs in the 70's to low-80's with cool mornings and occasional thunderstorms is my kind of thing.


Idc for March. Way too windy for my liking, especially when you live out in the country like I do with nothing around to block the wind.


The wind isn't ideal, but at least the temps are pleasant

It's kind of a "lull" so to speak between the risk of frosts/freezes being behind us and before severe weather season kicks into full gear.

That said, I have to give the edge to early April for my favorite time of year.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#173 Postby JDawg512 » Tue Mar 11, 2025 8:15 pm

snownado wrote:
JDawg512 wrote:I have a horrible feeling this could be like 2011 but possibly even worse. The only way we could dodge a disaster would be some well placed heavy rain events but as of now, little hope. :Hug:


One reason why 2011 may not be the best analog is because the ENSO state isn't really similar. It's debatable we're even in a true La Nina (a cold neutral state, certainly), whereas 2011 was in a pretty solid Nina state.

If anything, this past winter was a lot more Nino-esque pattern-wise...


The patten doesn't have to be the same to have devastating drought and wildfire risk which is what we are dealing with. We need the pattern to shift badly but it doesn't look like that will occur anytime soon.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#174 Postby wxman22 » Tue Mar 11, 2025 9:13 pm

One of the local chief meteorologist is now forecasting near hurricane force winds Friday with gust over 70 mph being possible.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#175 Postby cstrunk » Wed Mar 12, 2025 7:51 am

Speaking of storms, could be some nasty hailers in NE TX late this evening.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#176 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Wed Mar 12, 2025 8:50 am

wxman22 wrote:One of the local chief meteorologist is now forecasting near hurricane force winds Friday with gust over 70 mph being possible.

I lost quite a few shingles in the last one. Not looking forward to this one.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#177 Postby snownado » Wed Mar 12, 2025 9:04 am

cstrunk wrote:Speaking of storms, could be some nasty hailers in NE TX late this evening.


Potential looks highly conditional for DFW proper, depending on how quickly the cap can weaken.

Best odds are just to the east/NE of the Metroplex.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#178 Postby HockeyTx82 » Wed Mar 12, 2025 9:04 am

Yukon Cornelius wrote:
wxman22 wrote:One of the local chief meteorologist is now forecasting near hurricane force winds Friday with gust over 70 mph being possible.

I lost quite a few shingles in the last one. Not looking forward to this one.


Just don't talk to Insurance until the end of the season because they'll ding you for a deductible for every claim if you do.

At least that's what I've heard.
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#179 Postby DW5522 » Wed Mar 12, 2025 9:34 am

Can anyone elaborate on the potential storms in north Tx this evening? I didn’t see much on the models and forecasts but seen it mentioned a couple times now?
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Re: Texas Spring 2025

#180 Postby cstrunk » Wed Mar 12, 2025 9:57 am

DW5522 wrote:Can anyone elaborate on the potential storms in north Tx this evening? I didn’t see much on the models and forecasts but seen it mentioned a couple times now?


Some of the short-range CAM's show storms initiating near or east of I-35 and along/north of I-20 in the late afternoon/early evening timeframe. As snownado noted, it's highly conditional for the DFW area based on when the cap erodes. Higher probabilities would be from around Tyler north to the Red River and east to the Texarkana/Shreveport areas. The SPC has hatched the slight risk area for hail, so 2+" hail is possible in the area.
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