Texas Fall 2019

[BrokenGlass]

Hopefully, Texas can get some rain out the Gulf disturbance b/c the Euro EPS says, "Fall, What is the Fall Thread you speak of?"

This looks like the weather map for hell.


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[Cpv17]

12z Euro sucks.

[Haris]

Yeah I get that we need rain, but a system traversing the GoM in mid-September doesn't generate any good feelings.

I get your concern but it freaking needs to rain. This is getting freaking insane.

[Cpv17]

Yeah I get that we need rain, but a system traversing the GoM in mid-September doesn't generate any good feelings.

I get your concern but it freaking needs to rain. This is getting freaking insane.

Latest Euro only has about 1” for you. Trending in the wrong direction today.

[Brent]

Remember when September had cold fronts

[Ntxw]

Remember when September had cold fronts

On pace for hottest September ever.EVER.

[weatherdude1108]

More encouraging for central Texas!


National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
232 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2019

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...
A field of fair weather cumulus is spread across South Central Texas
this afternoon. Weak ridging will be the main influence for this
weekend with warm temperatures and dry weather expected through
Sunday night. A weak upper low and surface trough over the eastern
Gulf of Mexico is expected to move west, currently carrying a
10 percent chance of development over the next 48 hours and a 30
percent chance of development in the next 5 days.


&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
The mentioned tropical surface low continues west eventually reaching
the Texas coast by Monday evening. PWATs increase to over 2.0 inches
by Wednesday. This increase in tropical moisture will bring some
much needed rain chances for the area, through the week. With the
help of daytime heating, afternoon showers and storms can be
expected. Daytime highs will be in the mid to low 90s. Overnight lows
through the week will be in the low to mid 70s and upper 60s in the
Hill Country.

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah I get that we need rain, but a system traversing the GoM in mid-September doesn't generate any good feelings.

I get your concern but it freaking needs to rain. This is getting freaking insane.

Latest Euro only has about 1” for you. Trending in the wrong direction today.

I would be good with getting a solid five inches of rain before getting the the cold fronts, then keep the steady off and on cool rain coming.

[weatherdude1108]

I was out hand-watering dry areas in the backyard early this morning. It truly felt nice! It was 73. Wasn't the stagnant gross 78-79 we have seen all Summer. There have been no cool fronts, but I can tell in the air that Fall is coming, and in case it doesn't rain, yard is covered!


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
312 AM CDT Sun Sep 15 2019

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
Another mostly clear and relatively mild night is ongoing across
South-Central Texas at the present time. Drier air for the western
half of the area remains in place and this has allowed temperatures
to fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s for these locations. Middle
to upper 70s prevail for the eastern counties. A weak low-pressure
system remains in the western Gulf of Mexico and therefore all
rainfall activity for today will remain to our southeast. Otherwise,
highs today should be a degree or two cooler than yesterday as upper
heights continue to slowly fall over our area. For Monday, the
system should be nearing the coastline and will show 20-40 PoPs for
most of the region as some mainly afternoon showers and storms will
be possible. Highs on Monday should be another degree or two cooler
compared to today.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
The focus of the long-term forecast will continue to be on the system
in the Gulf of Mexico. The latest tropical weather outlook from the
National Hurricane Center shows only a 20 percent chance of
development into a tropical cyclone before the system moves onshore
Monday night and into Tuesday. Regardless if this system has a well-
defined low-level center, the moisture associated with this low
should bring us prolonged rain chances to our region. The main
question of today is how much rain will be possible next week?

The GFS and ECMWF have much different solutions regarding the
handling of the mid-upper level low centers once the system moves
onshore. The GFS wants to weaken and eventually dissipate this
feature as it moves onshore while the ECMWF maintains the low and
slowly moves it through the CWA Tuesday through Thursday. While the
GFS does show elevated PoPs through the week with the increase in
moisture, the rainfall amounts would not be nearly as high as what
the ECMWF is progging. The Canadian model does develop the system
into a cyclone which then limits the precip on the backside of the
system, but for this forecast package will not give much weight to
this outcome due to more of a consensus of the most reliable global
models for tropical weather not showing development. Through Friday
the GFS is showing 1 to 2 inches of QPF across portions of the CWA
while the ECMWF shows 3-4 inch rains along and east of I35. Taking a
look at the GFS ensembles offers no consensus as most members have
even less amounts of QPF than the operational runs. In fact, the
operational run of the GFS is by far the most wet of the ensemble
group. Until confidence increases on the possible ECMWF solution
verifying, will keep PoPs at 60 percent or less for most days next
week. These PoPs could be increased if confidence increases of the
upper low maintaining itself over land. Regardless of which solution
verifies, we will welcome the cooler temperatures that comes with the
increase in cloud cover and elevated rain chances after the brutal
August and first part of September that we have had. Highs in the
extended are forecast to be in the upper 80s to middle 90s with lows
in the lower 70s.

[CaptinCrunch]

Unfortunately September is looking like a lost cause for any Fall like weather. Matter of fact I really don't see any Fall like weather for much of the south central U.S till mid/late October at the earliest.

This pattern sucks, there really isn't any mechanism in play that will or can change it. The lack of Pacific activity during hurricane seasons seems to translate to warmer drier conditions for the southwestern and south central U.S. Also not helping is a weaker Bermuda high that's unable to drive tropical disturbances west into the GOM.

Again things can change for a more promising Winter, but we are going to have to get through this pattern before we can talk about that.

Fall Canceled

[Ntxw]

Unfortunately September is looking like a lost cause for any Fall like weather. Matter of fact I really don't see any Fall like weather for much of the south central U.S till mid/late October at the earliest.

This pattern sucks, there really isn't any mechanism in play that will or can change it. The lack of Pacific activity during hurricane seasons seems to translate to warmer drier conditions for the southwestern and south central U.S. Also not helping is a weaker Bermuda high that's unable to drive tropical disturbances west into the GOM.

Again things can change for a more promising Winter, but we are going to have to get through this pattern before we can talk about that.

Fall Canceled

Luckily September doesn't correlate well as a bellweather month given it is a transition month. Often times an extension of summer or early arm of Fall.

[Cpv17]

Looks like things are trending in the right direction today for some decent rains across southeast TX this week. Still skeptical about it though.

[Johnny]

Unfortunately September is looking like a lost cause for any Fall like weather. Matter of fact I really don't see any Fall like weather for much of the south central U.S till mid/late October at the earliest.

This pattern sucks, there really isn't any mechanism in play that will or can change it. The lack of Pacific activity during hurricane seasons seems to translate to warmer drier conditions for the southwestern and south central U.S. Also not helping is a weaker Bermuda high that's unable to drive tropical disturbances west into the GOM.

Again things can change for a more promising Winter, but we are going to have to get through this pattern before we can talk about that.

Fall Canceled

Luckily September doesn't correlate well as a bellweather month given it is a transition month. Often times an extension of summer or early arm of Fall.

Well put. September is always the battleground ground for the changing of the seasons from summer to fall. I can look outside and definitely see the struggle in the evening sky. Subtle changes.

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[Cpv17]

12z Euro has lots of rain for many people here in TX this week. Very nice to see!

[Cpv17]

Feast or famine typical Texas weather. 12z Euro would cause significant river flooding across southeast TX.

[hriverajr]

Feast or famine typical Texas weather. 12z Euro would cause significant river flooding across southeast TX.

and those of us west of I-35 would be screwed

[Cpv17]

Feast or famine typical Texas weather. 12z Euro would cause significant river flooding across southeast TX.

and those of us west of I-35 would be screwed

You guys over there probably need something from the Pacific to help out. The Gulf doesn’t help out areas west of I-35 much when it comes to the tropics.

[hriverajr]

Occasionally it does..This has been a particularly bad year with tropical systems to our east only reinforcing subsidence.

[CaptinCrunch]

Officially @ DFW Airport

Through the first 15 days of the month, September is the 2nd hottest behind August.

September's avg monthly mean temp for 1-15 is higher than June or July's full monthly mean avg.

September is the only month of 2019 so far to not record a single drop of precipitation thru the first 15 days.

[Brent]

I'm sure this cold will verify DFW hits 90 everyday on the 0z GFS til this which gets us almost into October(when the sunset is over 90 minutes earlier than it was in early July ) definitely would be a record September and not the good kind