Texas Summer 2018

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 101126
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
626 AM CDT Sun Jun 10 2018

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
The mid and upper level ridge will amplify across the western half
of Texas and New Mexico Tuesday and Wednesday, with South Central
Texas generally under the influence of its eastern periphery. The
ridge is forecast to flatten to the north Thursday and Friday and a
weak inverted upper level trough develops near the Lower and Middle
Texas Coast. Low and mid level moisture values increase slightly
during this time across southeastern counties, leading to a return of
isolated sea-breeze showers and storms Thursday and Friday.

A deeper fetch of moisture could arrive into portions of the area
during the weekend into early next week leading to better chances for
showers and storms. The GFS continues to develop a more well-defined
area of low pressure from a broader area of disturbed weather across
the western Gulf of Mexico during this time. It should be stressed
this is just one of several models. The GFS has shown a tendency to
spin systems up in the medium/long range that many times don`t
verify. It should also be stressed to not focus on one particular
model or run. Given continued lack of support for the GFS scenario
among ensemble members (other than the GEFS), this forecast follows
closer to other solutions such as the ECMWF. Please follow trusted
sources, such as NHC`s Tropical Weather Outlook, for outlooks on
development potential.

[Portastorm]

Haven't posted in a while. Glad you kids are still having fun here.

Models have me intrigued about the period beginning next weekend. Rare summer rains would be nice in south central Texas. Hopefully we can get a wet pattern going in those areas of the state stricken by drought. The more moisture we can get into the soils, the better our chance of offsetting an awful, Heat Miser-endorsed heat wave in July and/or August.

0z GFS and Euro show about 2" for Austin over the next 10 days, all primarily falling after June 16.

[South Texas Storms]

Haven't posted in a while. Glad you kids are still having fun here.

Models have me intrigued about the period beginning next weekend. Rare summer rains would be nice in south central Texas. Hopefully we can get a wet pattern going in those areas of the state stricken by drought. The more moisture we can get into the soils, the better our chance of offsetting an awful, Heat Miser-endorsed heat wave in July and/or August.

0z GFS and Euro show about 2" for Austin over the next 10 days, all primarily falling after June 16.

Welcome back Porta! I'm feeling optimistic about a wetter pattern arriving next weekend into the following week. We could sure use the rain!

[bubba hotep]

12z 3k NAM looks pretty good for some storms east of I35 in DFW later today. Even if it doesn't rain IMBY, getting some anvils to block out the afternoon sun will be enough for me.

[Ntxw]

In addition to the overall advertised wetter pattern, guidance agrees on building a stout 500mb ridge over the Pacific Northwest longer range. Patterns as such, In June-August, oftens yields cooling NW flow and quashing of the Sonorian/Chihuahuan heat ridge.

Cfsv2 maintains this ridge over the NW through July. Are we looking at a front loaded summer? Fingers crossed. June so far has seen a cooler Arctic.

[Haris]

Haven't posted in a while. Glad you kids are still having fun here.

Models have me intrigued about the period beginning next weekend. Rare summer rains would be nice in south central Texas. Hopefully we can get a wet pattern going in those areas of the state stricken by drought. The more moisture we can get into the soils, the better our chance of offsetting an awful, Heat Miser-endorsed heat wave in July and/or August.

0z GFS and Euro show about 2" for Austin over the next 10 days, all primarily falling after June 16.

Your first post on this thread of summer! Welcome!

[lukem]

In addition to the overall advertised wetter pattern, guidance agrees on building a stout 500mb ridge over the Pacific Northwest longer range. Patterns as such, In June-August, oftens yields cooling NW flow and quashing of the Sonorian/Chihuahuan heat ridge.

Cfsv2 maintains this ridge over the NW through July. Are we looking at a front loaded summer? Fingers crossed. June so far has seen a cooler Arctic.

Didn’t you predict that like a month or two ago based on similar years? If so, nice call.

[Ntxw]

In addition to the overall advertised wetter pattern, guidance agrees on building a stout 500mb ridge over the Pacific Northwest longer range. Patterns as such, In June-August, oftens yields cooling NW flow and quashing of the Sonorian/Chihuahuan heat ridge.

Cfsv2 maintains this ridge over the NW through July. Are we looking at a front loaded summer? Fingers crossed. June so far has seen a cooler Arctic.

Didn’t you predict that like a month or two ago based on similar years? If so, nice call.

I'm not sure I did. It would be nice . I can deal with heat early, if it means rainy and cool later

[Ntxw]

On a note about the wet pattern, despite the GFS, I have always been on the train of increase qpf due to Bud. It is not just the system but the mechanism that is driving the system to curve into Mexico. This S to N flow from the deep tropics is also dragging the Carib-W Gulf in the same directional flow. It is just that the GFS attempts to further develop within this envelope of moisture, though not entirely sold. Regardless, mid to higher moisture from the SW and surface pooling Gulf moisture is a good recipe for Rain.

Precipitable Water (PWats) will be increasing significantly across the state next week. Tropical feel with efficient rainmaking storms should one get lucky

[Haris]

[TheProfessor]

http://i63.tinypic.com/2wdne5j.png

Lock it in!

[weatherdude1108]

Haven't posted in a while. Glad you kids are still having fun here.

Models have me intrigued about the period beginning next weekend. Rare summer rains would be nice in south central Texas. Hopefully we can get a wet pattern going in those areas of the state stricken by drought. The more moisture we can get into the soils, the better our chance of offsetting an awful, Heat Miser-endorsed heat wave in July and/or August.

0z GFS and Euro show about 2" for Austin over the next 10 days, all primarily falling after June 16.

Welcome back Porta! I'm feeling optimistic about a wetter pattern arriving next weekend into the following week. We could sure use the rain!

Hey Porta! Been a long time! I thought you quit the forum.

I always like getting your input on here. Nice to see your post again!

[Brent]

lot of rain on the Euro

[gpsnowman]

Haven't posted in a while. Glad you kids are still having fun here.

Models have me intrigued about the period beginning next weekend. Rare summer rains would be nice in south central Texas. Hopefully we can get a wet pattern going in those areas of the state stricken by drought. The more moisture we can get into the soils, the better our chance of offsetting an awful, Heat Miser-endorsed heat wave in July and/or August.

0z GFS and Euro show about 2" for Austin over the next 10 days, all primarily falling after June 16.

Welcome back Porta! I'm feeling optimistic about a wetter pattern arriving next weekend into the following week. We could sure use the rain!

Hey Porta! Been a long time! I thought you quit the forum.

I always like getting your input on here. Nice to see your post again!

The reports of Portastorm's death have been greatly exaggerated.

[bubba hotep]

I like the Euro because it is finally showing what I (and others) was thinking this pattern would deliver.

[starsfan65]

I like the Euro because it is finally showing what I (and others) was thinking this pattern would deliver.

if a storm does develop in the Gulf, it will be call Beryl.

[Texas Snowman]

Lot of rain in Modelville, huh?

Hello, summer of 2007, is that you?

[weatherdude1108]

Beneficial rain is what we need.

504
FXUS64 KEWX 110839
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
339 AM CDT Mon Jun 11 2018

.SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...
A weakening mid level shortwave will pass through northern areas of
the CWA today. Better moisture and chances for convection will remain
northeast of the CWA. Can`t rule out a couple of stray showers
through the eastern half of the area, but too low to mention in the
forecast. Otherwise warm, with breaks in the clouds developing in
the afternoon. The mid and upper level ridge will amplify across the
western half of Texas and New Mexico on Tuesday with South Central
Texas generally under the influence of its eastern periphery.
Continue warm and mainly dry conditions on Tuesday. Afternoon heat
index values today and Tuesday 100-104 for locations outside of the
Hill Country.


&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Sunday)...
The ridge is forecast to flatten to the north Wednesday through
Friday. Moisture values across the southeastern counties will
increase and with less of an influence from the ridge should see a
return of isolated sea-breeze showers and storms during this time.

Complex forecast through the weekend and into early next week, just
beyond the 7 day. A tropical wave is forecast to move northwest off
the Yucatan and through the southwest Gulf of Mexico Friday and
Saturday. There has been much disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF
with respect to the evolution of this wave and development. The GFS
in earlier runs continued to hang onto the potential for low
pressure development in the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday, but in most
recent runs has trended toward the ECMWF...less organized and
farther west.

Also uncertain is the evolution of the upper pattern with respect to
the ridge moving northeast of the area and inverted upper level
trough ahead of the wave moving into Mexico and South Texas. It does
appear with the trends towards a less organized system that a much
deeper fetch of tropical moisture will be drawn up into portions, if
not all, of South Central Texas leading to beneficial rain over the
weekend and into early next week. PoPs reflect initially a conservative
approach of showing this, but if model trends continue will need to
adjust up.

Finally, it should continued to be stressed to follow trusted
sources, such as then National Hurricane Center, for outlooks on
potential tropical development during hurricane season. Currently
the National Hurricane Center`s Tropical Weather Outlook is not
calling for tropical cyclone development over the next 5 days.

[Haris]

So does this seemed lock ? Any chance this heads E to Louisiana and misses us . (The wave)

[JDawg512]

So does this seemed lock ? Any chance this heads E to Louisiana and misses us . (The wave)

There's always a chance this far out, however my rainmiser senses are starting to tingle. Beginning to feel more optimistic than I have been over the past few weeks that things are starting to change and rain is on the horizon.