Texas Summer - 2013

[Cyclenall]

So I assume yard fireworks are a thing of the past in Texas for July 4 celebrations?

[Tireman4]

In my neighborhood, they do it in the street. I mean just start firing them off and do not let up until 1 am the next morning. Every New Years and 4th, there is paper everywhere....

[weatherdude1108]

Don't despair, weatherdude1108. While I can't verify this, I'm assuming EWX is banking its forecast entirely on the GFS, because the Euro shows a wetter pattern for us. So, it'll be interesting to see which model forecast verifies. Furthermore there could be some nice tropical influences on our weather by early next week. Read what Houston met Jeff Lindner wrote this morning:

Upcoming pattern change will slowly transpire over the next 3-4 days with the parched area hopefully getting some much needed rainfall.

Highly unusual upper air pattern in place across the US with blocking ridges on both coasts and a full latitude trough in the center of the nation. This pattern will slowly retro-grade (move westward) over the next 3-4 days with the trough axis pushing deeper into TX allowing increasing instability and eventually and significant surge of tropical moisture. In addition, a tropical wave currently over the Yucatan will move generally WNW to NW over the next 3-4 days along the eastern side of the eastern side of the trough axis. Latest global forecast models attempt to spin up a surface low pressure from this tropical wave over the W/NW Gulf of Mexico late this weekend and they have been suggesting this off and on for several days now. Eastern sides of upper trough tend to be fairly active areas for thunderstorms to blossom and if upper level wind shear is favorable it is very possible that a surface circulation could close off over the NW Gulf. Any tropical cyclone formation would be on the weak side and likely move inland fairly quickly along the LA or TX coasts.

Should see a few isolated storms again this afternoon and evening and again on Thursday. Surge of tropical moisture nears the area on Friday and expect a little better coverage of storms along the seabreeze. Moisture moves inland over the weekend with good rain chances likely starting Saturday. Still a little uncertain as to how much coverage, but think the eastern areas (E of I-45) will see decent coverage on Saturday and likely the entire area on Sunday. Uncertainty is greater on Sunday as any surface low will tend to help concentrate rainfall near and east of the center. With tropical moisture increasing, rainfall rates will be on the rise also and while the ground is very dry, the prolonged nature of this potential event does warrant some concern.

Could be some significant changes to wind and seas forecast by late in the weekend if a weak tropical system does attempt to form over the NW Gulf. Should see gradually increasing winds out of the ESE and SE and building seas out of the near flat clam now as the SE wind fetch increases with the tropical wave axis.

Would advise residents to pay close attention to the weather over the holiday weekend and remain update to date on potential for rainfall and amounts.

Your little blurb brought me out of my funk Porta! Thanks for that! Any hope is good IMO. Looking forward to the possibilities.

I saw through somewhere on this forum and elsewhere that the Euro has more computational capacity than the GFS, which tends to make it more accurate than the GFS. I don't know if that is right, but if so, seems like they should do away with the GFS altogether, or at least upgrade the software. Given that, why doesn't ewx lean towards the Euro in their forecasts? Maybe others can chime in, unless it's off-topic here.

Anyway, all I know is it was a delightful 64 degrees at my place at 6:40 this morning.

[Ntxw]

Tidbit: Austin Bergstrom's low of 60F this morning is the all time record low for the month of July.

Question, which of the two sites is the "official" station for Austin record keeping? Mabry or Bergstrom? I do know Bergstrom is the international airport which usually the one.

[weatherdude1108]

Tidbit: Austin Bergstrom's low of 60F this morning is the all time record low for the month of July.

Question, which of the two sites is the "official" station for Austin record keeping? Mabry or Bergstrom? I do know Bergstrom is the international airport which usually the one.

Mabry is the official record keeping station. They always mention both in the weather observations. Bergstrom is consistently cooler than everyone else. They are in a natural low spot and area where the cool air sinks and gets trapped where it is measured.

[weatherdude1108]

In my neighborhood, they do it in the street. I mean just start firing them off and do not let up until 1 am the next morning. Every New Years and 4th, there is paper everywhere....

Same here. People started lighting them here a few weeks ago. Even though it is illegal in city limits, people light them off in the neighborhood. We did that as kids, but we lived in the county.

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose picks up on Porta's comment from an earlier blurb Porta posted from Jeff Linder in Houston earlier today.

http://www.lcra.org/water/conditions/we ... olumn.html

National Hurricane Center forecasters are monitoring a broad area of clouds covering the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico. These clouds are associated with a broad, disorganized area of low pressure located over the south central Gulf:

Clouds and moisture associated with the area of low pressure are forecast to track slowly west-northwest over the next 3 to 4 days. As of now, conditions don’t appear favorable for organized tropical development, but this possibility can’t be entirely ruled out. Regardless of development, tropical moisture is forecast to spread west towards the Texas coast, arriving late Sunday into Monday. Scattered rain showers and thunderstorms are forecast to increase in areal coverage across the coastal plains region late Sunday, continuing into Monday and Tuesday. As of now, it’s not clear how much of this moisture will spread further inland into Central Texas and the Hill Country. The latest model solutions are somewhat split, with some showing tropical moisture spreading into South Texas, while others keep most of the moisture towards the coast. I will point out the European solution brings a considerable amount of moisture into South Texas the first half of next week followed by another area of disturbed weather late next week. Should this solution verify, we’ll likely see scattered rain showers and isolated thunderstorms across the region through a good part of next week.

[Rgv20]

Hopefully we get some much needed rain out of this Tropical Wave..

NWS Brownsville Afternoon Discussion

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...THE LONG TERM WILL
CONTINUE TO TRANSITION TO A NORMAL JULY PATTERN AS THE 500MB
TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN HANGING AROUND LIFTS STEADILY NORTHEAST. AS
THE WESTERLIES RETREAT THE TROPICAL EASTERLIES MOVE IN BRINGING IN
A SURGE OF TROPICAL MOISTURE THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

MID LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH ADVANCES NORTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
GULF SATURDAY ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A 500MB RIDGE CENTERED
ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE ALONG THE
COASTAL REACHES AS SURFACE WINDS TURN EAST AND DEEPEN. SEA BREEZE
SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WILL BE ADDED FOR THE
COASTAL COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SLIGHT
DEEPENING OF MOISTURE. THE REAL SURGE TAKES PLACE ON SUNDAY AS
PWATS CLIMB ABOVE 2 INCHES WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE INVERTED
TROUGH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT ON ITS PATH AND
TIMING TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST. DIFFERENCES RESIDE ON STRENGTH AND
DEVELOPMENT OF THE TROUGH AS IT MOVES INLAND. GFS KEEPS THE TROUGH
OPEN AND ECMWF IS TRENDING WITH A CLOSE LOW OVER NUEVO LEON. THE
DEEPER LOW WILL PROVIDE STRONG MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS. THESE TROPICAL TROUGHS USUALLY REMAIN OPEN ESPECIALLY
AFTER THEY MOVE INLAND. POP GUIDANCE ALSO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO
WITH ECMWF MORE BULLISH WITH THE POPS THROUGH MONDAY. FORECAST
CHANGES TO INCLUDE INCREASING RAIN CHANCES ON SUNDAY AS THE BULK
OF THE MOISTURE ARRIVES THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROUGH ACTS ON IT.
POPS DROP OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCES MONDAY AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES ON
ITS WESTWARD TRACK AWAY FROM THE CWA.

[KatDaddy]

Another day of isolated thunderstorms mainly along the sea breeze. Any storm that develops could have very strong downbursts when they collapse. Things change tomorrow as tropical moisture moves across SE TX. A few of the models try to close off a low in the WGOM and move it into SE TX. To much shear for anything more than a very weak TD at best and that is doubtful. Regardless tropical moisture will bring very heavy well needed rainfall Sunday into Monday. Some areas may see up to 5" of rain.

[Portastorm]

Well, EWX seems mildly optimistic about rain chances in South Central Texas by later in the weekend. Hope they're right. Lake Travis is now down to 38% capacity. Amazing (in a real bad way). Snippet below from EWX's morning AFD:

AS AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH OR TROPICAL WAVE CONTACTS COASTAL
REGIONS SUNDAY...GULF MOISTURE WILL SURGE INLAND WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS... HUMIDITIES AND MOST IMPORTANTLY...A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.
HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL MODERATE BACK TO SEASONAL NORMS WITH
THE INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE. AS THIS EASTERLY WAVE CONTINUES
WESTWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AN INCREASING TROPIC-LIKE
ATMOSPHERE AND GULF MOISTURE SURGE WILL ALLOW FOR INCREASING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREA-WIDE. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL
MODERATE TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL LEVELS WITH LOWS IN THE 70S. THE
WEAKENING UPPER WAVE WILL CONTINUE PUSHING WEST INTO MEXICO BY LATE
MONDAY...MONDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING OVER EASTERN
PORTIONS BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT...EARLY TUESDAY.

[weatherdude1108]

It doesn't help that we are heading into the climatologically hottest and driest time of year. The trouble is that the past several years have been the "driest times of year." Always hoping/praying!

[weatherdude1108]

I saw an article in this free "Hill Country News" newspaper we get weekly on our driveway. It mentions Cedar Park and "historic water restrictions." I've been watering once a week for at least a year and a half. So won't effect me at all. Yeah, Cedar Park is behind the times.

http://m.hillcountrynews.com/mobile/new ... f887a.html

[Ntxw]

I am more confident to say that coastal Texas and areas below I-10 stand the best chance at significant rainfall. The further inland you go the more models aren't precip happy, probably scattered in nature and hit/miss during peak heating. If it was a more organized system chances would be better but since it's not right now I wouldn't bet on it.

Longer range guidance rebuilds heat ridge in the SW and moves it into the midwest/central plains. Texas is on the southern periphery (not a bad thing) and higher moisture air will likely stay from the gulf. How hot we get will depend on how much rain falls and dampens soil until then. Thinking seasonably hot. Hang in there 4-6 more weeks of the hottest period before we climb back down the ladder.

Waters off the west coast are warm which continues to bode well for us, I will be watching the PDO value in the coming weeks to see if the +PDO trend continues from last month which likely will have implications for how early cold fronts will come in the fall. Arctic Sea Ice is not doing as bad as the past few years so far and is decent compared to past 10 year trends, hopefully that means good things to come as the sun creeps lower in the sky.

[Portastorm]

Perhaps 94L will provide us with ample rainfall ... and, as Mr. Crabs once said "and maybe scallops will fly out of my pants!"

[Tireman4]

Perhaps 94L will provide us with ample rainfall ... and, as Mr. Crabs once said "and maybe scallops will fly out of my pants!"

Now Porta, this is a family show...LOL...

[Portastorm]

Perhaps 94L will provide us with ample rainfall ... and, as Mr. Crabs once said "and maybe scallops will fly out of my pants!"

Now Porta, this is a family show...LOL...

Hey, he's a Spongebob character ... clean stuff! Point being ... I'm much more confident in you getting rain over there than folks like me, ndale, or weatherdude1108. Hope I'm wrong tho.

[Rgv20]

Brownsville afternoon discussion.....Hopefully we get some much needed rain!!

THE 12Z KBRO SOUNDING INDICATED PWATS VALUES OF 1.8 INCHES THIS
MORNING AND THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALY SHOWS 2 INCHES
GRADUALLY MOVING INTO THE LOWER TEXAS COAST. IN ADDITION...LOOKING
AT THE LATEST RADAR IMAGERY WHERE MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY IS
TODAY...CAN NOT RULE OUT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE COAST AND GULF WATERS OF THE CWA SATURDAY. LEAN TOWARDS A 20
PERCENT MAINLY ALONG THE GULF COAST AND THE COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WITH HIGHER POSSIBILITY BY LATE SATURDAY
INTO EARLY SUNDAY WHEN THIS DISTURBANCE AND THE BROAD MOISTURE WITH
IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE GULF COAST. EXPECT A MORE EASTERLY FLOW
TOMORROW WITH LIGHT WINDS DURING THE DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN
THE MID TO UPPER 90S WITH CLOSE TO THE TRIPLE DIGITS ALONG THE
WESTERN BORDER OF TEXAS. STAY TUNED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS THE
CONDITIONS COULD CHANGE.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...EMPHASIS ON THE LONG TERM
WILL BE ON THE SUNDAY AND MONDAY TIME FRAME. BROAD SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE EAST OF TAMPICO IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS BEING
MONITORED BY THE HURRICANE CENTER AND IS GIVEN A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
MODEL PROJECTIONS SHOW THE TROUGH AXIS MOVING NORTHWEST UNDER THE
500MB RIDGE OVER TEXAS WHILE THE SURFACE TRACKS MORE NORTH TOWARDS
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BETWEEN THE TEXAS RIDGE AND THE BERMUDA HIGH
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. TROPICAL MOISTURE TO INCREASE AS THE
TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND SOUTH TEXAS ENDS UP ON THE EAST SIDE OF
THE TROUGH. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES INCREASE TO AROUND 2.25
INCHES OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA SUNDAY WHICH IS 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL WHICH IS OVER A 100 PERCENT INCREASE OF
WHAT WE HAVE BEEN EXPERIENCING. THEN THE DEEPER MOISTURE CONTINUES
TO SPREAD WEST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CWA BY MONDAY. DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS CAN EXPECT MUCH MORE HUMID CONDITIONS WITH INCREASING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HEAVY RAIN IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION WITH SOME STORMS BEING QUITE EFFICIENT ESPECIALLY
IF THE SEA BREEZE INTERACTS WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH AIDING AS A
LOW LEVEL FOCUS. NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN BUT ISOLATED
AREAS COULD SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE 48 HOUR
PERIOD.

[Portastorm]

I read last night where Lake Travis is now down to the third lowest level of all time.

Man do we ever need rainfall here in south central Texas ... and a lot of it! Wish 94L would help start that process.

[jasons2k]

I noticed something on water vapor loops. There is a circulation (mid level?) with a pocket of dry air that drifted over the Houston/Galveston bay area. Now, it is stationary near the entrance to Galveston bay. Maybe it will pull-up and it's going to drift back west?

Anyway, I think it's important because right along the coast, there is an elongated ribbon of dry air that was wrapped into that circulation, and it's slowly getting squeezed out. You can see the ribbon was draped from Corpus over Galveston and to Lake Charles this morning. It's important to note because that's where the soundings were taken (they came in dry), and that may be one reason why the models don't see the moisture moving in today. On water vapor, it looks like that ribbon of dry air is filling-in over time and disappearing. Something to watch for, I think.

[weatherdude1108]

I read last night where Lake Travis is now down to the third lowest level of all time.

Man do we ever need rainfall here in south central Texas ... and a lot of it! Wish 94L would help start that process.

I echo that!