Texas Fall 2012

[BigB0882]

Dont want to get off topic too much but im sure you guys have seen the perfect storm scenario the Euro has been drawing up the last few days. Holy Moly.

Can you elaborate?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Dont want to get off topic too much but im sure you guys have seen the perfect storm scenario the Euro has been drawing up the last few days. Holy Moly.

Can you elaborate?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... not/547727

[Portastorm]

The Euro continues to show colder 850mb temps this weekend over Texas as compared to the GFS. This has been consistent for the last few days. Not sure where the Texas NWSFOs are standing ... but if the Euro verifies, I think some forecasted temps for this weekend may bust as being a bit too warm.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Diffuculty forecasting shallow air mass?

[Portastorm]

Diffuculty forecasting shallow air mass?

Oh, for sure. One of things that forecasters will be dealing with this weekend is a shallow cold airmass and a zonal flow aloft. Always makes for "interesting" times.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

So what are your thoughts regarding the second short wave that will traverse across the Southern Plains on Friday? May it produce rain snow mix for the Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma?

[Portastorm]

So what are your thoughts regarding the second short wave that will traverse across the Southern Plains on Friday? May it produce rain snow mix for the Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma?

From what I have seen on the models (and forecast discussions), it does appear a second shortwave ... a deepening one ... will eject out of the trough and traverse the southern Plains. But it seems like the moisture levels are very light. My guess is it could be what we refer to as a virga storm. Yeah, the temp profiles in the atmosphere would support a mixture of rain/snow but again, the QPF looks really light.

Something to keep an eye on though as we still have several days to go.

[GRAYSONCO.WX]

So what are your thoughts regarding the second short wave that will traverse across the Southern Plains on Friday? May it produce rain snow mix for the Panhandle and parts of Oklahoma?

From what I have seen on the models (and forecast discussions), it does appear a second shortwave ... a deepening one ... will eject out of the trough and traverse the southern Plains. But it seems like the moisture levels are very light. My guess is it could be what we refer to as a virga storm. Yeah, the temp profiles in the atmosphere would support a mixture of rain/snow but again, the QPF looks really light.

Something to keep an eye on though as we still have several days to go.

Thank you for the response! It will definitely be something to keep an eye on
Systems like this prevent me from sleeping well and prevent me from studying too.

[Terri]

HUMPF! A little off topic -
Wireless weather station bit the dust at Rancho del Thibodeaux. It wasn't a great one anyway.
Recommendations for one that doesn't break the bank for all pertinent data and rainfall amounts?
Want to have it in place prior to "real" winter temps getting here. Don't want orlike to walk out in the woods to the
old "John Deer" analog hanging on the tree when it is raining and cold.

[Ntxw]

Since Portastorm is already talking about the S word, I'm going to get a little ahead of this weekend's weather changes. There are good signs of a rising PNA that will coincide with the -NAO/-AO in a couple of weeks. That is the signal for winter storms here in Texas during the winter. The cold fronts so far this month have been due to the -EPO with a -PNA, which is cold but dry

[iorange55]

The local DFW mets are going to busting with their forecasts for this weekend. Way too warm...you'd think they know better by now.

[Portastorm]

The local DFW mets are going to busting with their forecasts for this weekend. Way too warm...you'd think they know better by now.

Perhaps ... but the Euro and GFS are now very close in terms of their predicted temps for this weekend. Initially the Euro had much stronger ridging out west which drive the trough deeper into the southern Plains. It has backed off a little on that now.

We should have a good idea by tomorrow afternoon on weekend temps as the upstream temps behind the front will be closely monitored.

[Portastorm]

Dont want to get off topic too much but im sure you guys have seen the perfect storm scenario the Euro has been drawing up the last few days. Holy Moly.

Can you elaborate?

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-b ... not/547727

However this storm ends up, it certainly looks to be significant enough to alter the pattern over North America. There's talk about it ushering in a period of -NAO. That will have an indirect impact on our weather.

But TeamPlayersBlue ... yeah ... if Euro verifies, this storm will be catastrophic for many along the East Coast. It could be "one for the ages." That 0z Euro run just blows my mind. I can't recall the Euro showing such a dramatic impact with a storm. Wow!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Well now it is showing a warm core "hurricane" vs a perfect storm scenario right?

[vbhoutex]

This Noreastercane, if it verifies, will probably usher in a much cooler regime for the Eastern half of the US. IF it does verify it will be very bad from the Mid-Atlantic to the NE and to the Great Lakes also. What no one seems to be talking about, and I understand why, is that this storm should pull down much colder weather around its West side. That along with the probable pattern change I think will finally get those of us in Texas into a Fall weather feeling at a minimum if not move us into a more Winter like pattern with more "cold shots" coming through.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

The problem with potential Sandy is that if it phases may dig a trough a little too deep into the northeast out towards that Atlantic. The Alaskan ridge will retrograde, that would once again put us between troughs. If lucky we may get NW flow aloft from the eastern trough but nothing spectacular if it is strong. That is a potential drawback, I want to see amplification in the gulf of Alaska and west coast, that beats anything the Atlantic can give us.

A week ago when looking at the forecast charts, I didn't put Sandy into the picture. What that did was allowed the cold to lift out east and bring in a Central Canada Vortex which pushes down cold air into the plains. Sandy is going to draw the vortex east into Eastern Canada, which is (potentially) a slightly different scenario.

Where's the front I wonder?

[Portastorm]

Well now it is showing a warm core "hurricane" vs a perfect storm scenario right?

I'm not sure that I understand what you're saying. Hurricanes are warm core. What the Euro is showing that as Hurricane Sandy transitions to an extratropical low, the wind field will expand considerably, enhanced by a strong trough moving east from the Great Lakes, and the combination of the two will be a large, low gyre (Noreaster) with a remaining warm core but the rest of it resembles a cold core low system. It's a rare bird to be sure but the Euro has consistently suggested this. And now the GFS is trending the way of the Euro.

As vbhoutex suggests, the implications for Texas would mean a possible negative NAO developing and a more persistent and large trough over the eastern half of the country ... allowing more cold air to spill south on occasion.

But as Ntxw suggests, the if western ridging which develops is flatter. All of the late fall "excitement" weather would impact areas further east than Texas and leave us in more of a mild climate.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

You think Sandy alone could affect weather one month into the future? Will it stay in the Atlantic long enough to do this?

Ok i thought it was still keeping most of its hurricane characteristics if not all of them. I was looking at chart Ryan Maue posted this AM and it showed separate wind fields. Mind you, im an amateur, especially with this type of scenario. Thanks for the info!

[Ntxw]

You think Sandy alone could affect weather one month into the future? Will it stay in the Atlantic long enough to do this?

She isn't going to directly. Much like the discussion of the Typhoon connection. The powerful -NAO block will keep her height fields stuck over the northeast. Cold air is drawn to lower heights. It takes a few weeks for a blocking signal that strong to break down, and a little longer for the weather to change.

[Portastorm]

OK, so am I the only one who has noticed that in the last 48 hours the forecasts have moved frontal passage up by about 18 hours?!

How many times does this happen. Aye, yi, yi!

I anticipate fropa here at the PWC around 8 or 9 this evening.