Texas Fall 2019

[harp]

Latest CPC forecast is terrible.

How so??

[Cpv17]

Latest CPC forecast is terrible.

How so??

Above normal temps below normal precipitation for the next two weeks.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

The pattern coming again for Thanksgiving week has me excited for the coming winter. It keeps coming back, and with slight adjustments, we could have a monster event for Texas. Would require a bit more digging from a trough according to the Euro, but im loving it.

We can all dream, but an active southern stream joining an arctic front coming down into the plains, or a ULL rounding the big bend region with cold air.... These ideas look quite possible a few times this winter.

[gpsnowman]

The pattern coming again for Thanksgiving week has me excited for the coming winter. It keeps coming back, and with slight adjustments, we could have a monster event for Texas. Would require a bit more digging from a trough according to the Euro, but im loving it.

We can all dream, but an active southern stream joining an arctic front coming down into the plains, or a ULL rounding the big bend region with cold air.... These ideas look quite possible a few times this winter.

Agreed, we just gotta let it all play out. It will take some time though. In the meantime, a late week cool down is in store with plenty of rain chances for several days. Looking forward to some wet weather.

[Cpv17]

The pattern coming again for Thanksgiving week has me excited for the coming winter. It keeps coming back, and with slight adjustments, we could have a monster event for Texas. Would require a bit more digging from a trough according to the Euro, but im loving it.

We can all dream, but an active southern stream joining an arctic front coming down into the plains, or a ULL rounding the big bend region with cold air.... These ideas look quite possible a few times this winter.

Agreed, we just gotta let it all play out. It will take some time though. In the meantime, a late week cool down is in store with plenty of rain chances for several days. Looking forward to some wet weather.

The Euro doesn’t really have much rain. Neither does the 18z GFS.

[CaptinCrunch]

Let's not start the Winter Canceled post just yet.....lol

We have seen this pattern before, there has been a brief warm period before the next cold shot, and again we should expect this type of pattern all winter.

It only takes 1 ULL system with a strong cold front to make us all forget the last 4 lame a$$ winter seasons.....

"CPC" stands for "Can't Predict Crap".....

[harp]

Let's not start the Winter Canceled post just yet.....lol

We have seen this pattern before, there has been a brief warm period before the next cold shot, and again we should expect this type of pattern all winter.

It only takes 1 ULL system with a strong cold front to make us all forget the last 4 lame a$$ winter seasons.....

"CPC" stands for "Can't Predict Crap".....

And let's not forget we are still in NOVEMBER folks!

[harp]

Umm, don't look now,, but the 0Z GFS dumps the arctic right down the Plains into Texas and Louisiana in the first few days of December. I'm sure it will be gone next run, but something to look at for fun.

[Brent]

Umm, don't look now,, but the 0Z GFS dumps the arctic right down the Plains into Texas and Louisiana in the first few days of December. I'm sure it will be gone next run, but something to look at for fun.

interestingly there's almost an ice storm next weekend too up here, if its just a bit colder that could be interesting too, though the Euro doesn't appear to show that...

meanwhile next week the models are in better agreement on less rainfall in the leadup(actually the Euro has no rainfall now after this weekend) and highs well into the 60s on Thanksgiving

[bubba hotep]

Looks like a gloomy and sometimes stormy end to the week for N. Texas but no signs of really cold air until we move into December. The Pacific jet is currently extended and shifted poleward pumping a steady stream of warm Pacific air into our source region. The GEFS is showing a bit of a relaxation and an equatorward shift in the longer range. This allows for cold anomalies to build over WCAN. After that, it looks like we could see our next significant cold dump during the 1st week of December.

Taken verbatim, 12z GFS would be deep sustained cold for most of the US during the 1st week of December. Ensembles and teleconnections lend support to this type of outcome.

[Cpv17]

Looks like a gloomy and sometimes stormy end to the week for N. Texas but no signs of really cold air until we move into December. The Pacific jet is currently extended and shifted poleward pumping a steady stream of warm Pacific air into our source region. The GEFS is showing a bit of a relaxation and an equatorward shift in the longer range. This allows for cold anomalies to build over WCAN. After that, it looks like we could see our next significant cold dump during the 1st week of December.

Taken verbatim, 12z GFS would be deep sustained cold for most of the US during the 1st week of December. Ensembles and teleconnections lend support to this type of outcome.

1067mb high at the end of the 12z GFS.

[TheProfessor]

The EPO is now forecasted to stay neutral/positive through the Thanksgiving storm system, which is likely why the rain event all together is no longer showing up on the models. It does go negative for the early December, so that's definitely the time frame to watch right now.

[starsfan65]

The EPO is now forecasted to stay neutral/positive through the Thanksgiving storm system, which is likely why the rain event all together is no longer showing up on the models. It does go negative for the early December, so that's definitely the time frame to watch right now.

Why is going to stay neutral?

[bubba hotep]

The first part of December keeps looking more interesting, I think we will see our 1st legit chance at a winter storm across the populated portions of Texas.

[Brent]

Thanksgiving forecast for DFW

Euro mid 70s and sunny
GFS 40s and rain

[TheProfessor]

The EPO is now forecasted to stay neutral/positive through the Thanksgiving storm system, which is likely why the rain event all together is no longer showing up on the models. It does go negative for the early December, so that's definitely the time frame to watch right now.

Why is going to stay neutral?

It's been hovering around neutral for a few days now, but basically the ridge in the Gulf of Alaska has been breaking down, which isn't allowing troughs to really dig into the U.S. The ridge actually returned today and the EPO is a bit negative right now, but it appears the flow is pretty progressive right now so that ridge is looking to break down pretty quickly thus this weekend's storm stays north until it hits the east coast. The ridge really builds back in next week and early December though. However, for the storm that's expected midweek the ridge is quite a bit further west in Western Alaska(Almost in the Bering Sea) instead of in the Gulf of Alaska like we would want it.

[TheProfessor]

I know everyone's eyes are glued to potential winter weather for early December(including mine lol) But Friday afternoon on the 30th is screaming potential severe weather outbreak for North and Central Texas.

[bubba hotep]

WPC and the 18z Euro are in pretty good alignment for this minor rain event with N & NE DFW doing the best. Looks like about 1" at the airport and more as you move NE from there. I'll take it

[Ntxw]

No change from the thoughts earlier this month. SOI tank suggest we continue the theme. We are currently thawing out from the "seasonal" trend pattern. The records earlier this month and now moderation period as the Pacific is going through seasonal changes. That huge warm blob in the Pacific is going to be a factor, as well as the IO. The EPO will only stay positive for so long, until it will revert back to what the Ocean wants it to be and that is severe -EPO this winter. -NAO right now will cause blockage for storms to ride out. The southern branch of the US/jet stream is strong and this will set stage for December.

Signs now point to a cold and potentially wintry December. The near record cold shots will revisit us again not too long in the distant future. I am willing to bet the farm (same as the flip in October) the snow drought ends soon. Also the first time in nearly half a decade, a cold December.

[Brent]

Can't believe no one posted the 18z GFS its only 360 hours away!