Texas Fall 2013

[katheria]

Happy Thanksgiving everyone!


i have been spending time with the smoker this morning also in garland

3 turkeys and a 30# ham LOL.....

we are not getting together until Saturday alot of family members cant make it until saturday

Whoa! And here I thought I was doing something with my 15-pd brisket and 11-pd turkey. Yours is much more impressive!

Just saw the 12z GFS op run. Colder than the 0z and 6z for the next Arctic plunge but still nowhere near what I think we may see. Curious to see how the crazy Canadian and King Euro shake out today.

Well LOL,

I got 3 free turkeys for i had to do something with them

brined two of them in different mixtures and 1 not brined just experimenting to see what we like best got a new smoker this year for had to try the turkeys on it

the euro better behave! thats all i can say, i want my SNOW!

just a reminder 2011



Street WHAT Street???

[orangeblood]

I just looked at the 12z EURO, and I saw no cold air in Texas' future for at least the next 10 days.

Not sure if my sarcasm meter is working currently, but if 20 below normal next weekend isn't cold air I don't know what is

[katheria]

I just looked at the 12z EURO, and I saw no cold air in Texas' future for at least the next 10 days.

Not sure if my sarcasm meter is working currently, but if 20 below normal next weekend isn't cold air I don't know what is

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing anything like 1983 or 1989. Here's a plot of the 12Z GFS forecast temps (valid 6am and 6pm). Lows near freezing and a high in the 40 deg range in Houston next Sunday with some rain around. Very much like this week was. A quick warm-up on Tuesday followed by another cold front then another quick warm-up.

Just looked at the 12Z Euro 2m temps for the next 10 days and it doesn't have any freezing temps between Dallas and Houston in the 5-10 day range.

[Snowman67]

I'm not seeing anything like 1983 or 1989. Here's a plot of the 12Z GFS forecast temps (valid 6am and 6pm). Lows near freezing and a high in the 40 deg range in Houston next Sunday with some rain around. Very much like this week was. A quick warm-up on Tuesday followed by another cold front then another quick warm-up.

Just looked at the 12Z Euro 2m temps for the next 10 days and it doesn't have any freezing temps between Dallas and Houston in the 5-10 day range.

Weatherman, how reliable is that forecast historically for the 7-10 day time period? Anyway you could look back to 83 or 89 and find out what temps were forecasted 10 days out from those cold blasts? Thanks.

[BigB0882]

Good question, snowman. I always hear that models tend to under-do the big cold blasts. I wonder how the models got it back in 83 and 89, as well. We do have to remember that models have come a long way since then.

[Ntxw]

To follow up on my post about November being the first in a decade below average for us, here is the idea on a map. Courtesy of JB on twitter.



Will December follow? CPC is going all on as far as their colors go, doesn't get any higher than that.





Dark days ahead for our resident heat miser

[Ntxw]

And for verification here was the NOAA outlook for Nov, probably relying on the raging +AO (which did happen). It was a bad idea the coldest was where they had the warmest, they had Alaska right though!

[richtrav]

Good question, snowman. I always hear that models tend to under-do the big cold blasts. I wonder how the models got it back in 83 and 89, as well. We do have to remember that models have come a long way since then.

Models?! We don't need no stinkin' models! How about a big paper map, some blue pencils and a lot of slide rules (ok maybe a bit of an exaggeration)

Looking at some newspapers in '89, an article on Dec 20 in the Dallas Morning News (a Wednesday) predicted highs in the low 30s and lows in the mid teens for Friday and Saturday. The following day a more alarming article came out predicting a much more severe cold outbreak, with highs as cold as 12 on Friday with a low around 0 Saturday morning. This proved to be quite accurate but it didn't get published until the day before the front arrived.

Similar articles on the 21st in the Austin and Houston papers were also published about the severity of the upcoming cold wave. They were a couple of degrees too warm but got the general idea right.

If this was published on the 21st that means the NWS was sounding the alarm on the 20th, a whopping 2 days ahead of the front. To their credit, they did correctly predict that the upper air patterns would change dramatically after the cold outbreak with a warmup to follow.

So yeah, we've come a long ways.

As for the upcoming outbreak, the models have been predicting for days now a very cold outbreak for the NW US and it is looking more and more like that's going to happen in some form or fashion. What the computers are having more trouble with is where it goes after that. To me it looks a little far to the west to be the dreaded "Straight-Down-The-Front-Range-Blue-Norther-MOAF" event for TX but it's certainly worth monitoring. Will probably be cold, just nothing of biblical proportions (at least for us). The maps for Feb 2011 were a lot scarier, that I remember.

[Ntxw]

Well I wasn't so sure before but I'm getting a better sense that the Arctic outbreak late week is part 1 in likely 2 or more. The latest EPO tank is resulting in a very cold air mass coming down that's been well advertised. And yet again the Pacific is going to lead the way for yet another tank. This tank will feature a yet even colder air mass originating from central and western Canada. Again dependent on the progression of the -EPO (rex block over Alaska). No shortage of cold air for December in the foreseeable future.

[NDG]

CPC also had the FL peninsula right, I guess the negative EPO does not cool down the Peninsula's wx as much as the -AO & -NAO.

[Rgv20]

0zGFS forecasts high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday some 25-35 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for most of Texas!


Saturday



Sunday

[gpsnowman]

Another outage and another return! I'm not sure I can handle another one during the winter season. Cold air is coming and I am missing the updates.
What is the precip probability while the cold is here, if any?

[Ntxw]

0zGFS forecasts high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday some 25-35 degrees Fahrenheit below normal for most of Texas!

Along with that both GFS and Euro are showing snow and ice on the leading edge of the Arctic front through impulses. We'll have to fine tune as the models come this week.

[wxman22]

0z GFS shows a Ice Storm across central, east Texas and Southeast Texas, that extends into the southeast U.S next weekend...

[wxman57]

Next weekend is looking like a very cold and wet one. Strong front moves through by sunrise Friday (Houston) and the temperature falls through Sunday.

[wxman57]

GFS indicates a sub-freezing layer from the surface to about 3000 ft into Austin with quite a bit warmer air above there (sleet/freezing rain). GFS has the entire column below freezing over Dallas, but very little precip that far north.

[aggiecutter]

Freezing rain is back in the forecast for Texarkana on Friday and Friday night. Portastorm and his ice storms, he can have them.

[Ntxw]

Shouldn't we be moving the discussion over to the winter thread now? Meteorological winter begins today and all forecast for winter is based on DJF. Fall is SON.

SPECIAL MODERATOR NOTICE

We appreciate everyone keeping their comments/posts about this current weather event in the Texas Fall thread, despite the nature of the weather being (for us in Texas, at least) wintery! So let's do this ... after we conclude this current week and Thanksgiving holiday weekend, we'll move it on over to the Texas Winter 2013 thread. And it appears some have already done that!

Thanks everyone.

Here is a link to the Texas Winter thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114950&start=240

[wxman57]

I still have 3 weeks of fall left before I have to concede to winter!