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Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:20 pm
by weatherdude1108
Yukon Cornelius wrote:weatherdude1108 wrote:Latching onto something.
I noticed during a walk just now that the sun feels less intense, it's clearer in the sky, the clouds are more billowy, and it seems more Fall-like, even though it's near 100 degrees. It's subtle, but it's there.
I have a knack sometimes for noticing a difference in the weather if I step outside, whether it's less or more humid, or a couple degrees warmer or cooler. I notice more of it with moisture. I go outside and notice it seems really dry. I check humidity, it's 21%.
Or if it smells like rain and feels sticky in the morning, and the clouds are different, I check forecast, and there's a 50% chance of thunderstorms.
Wife gives me a hard time about it, like it's weird.lol It is a little odd, but I notice stuff like that, without trying.lol
I mentioned the same thing to my wife yesterday. Even though it was 100, the atmosphere? seems different. The sun is definitely less intense and everything just has a different look and feel to it.
EXACTLY!
Cool to know of someone else who notices this.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 4:48 pm
by Portastorm
Yukon? Weatherdude? Do we need to send law enforcement out to do welfare checks on both of you?!
It's still a blast furnace out there! I have this image of
wxman57 in my head with his finger on the up arrow button of the air system, cackling loudly!
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:02 pm
by Ntxw
Peaked out at 97 for DFW. Climo makes pushing 100 a bit tougher, thank goodness.
We do need to watch the gulf if the eastern ridge is prevalent. That sends return flow from the Gulf which is usually a sign of some rains, especially southern tier of the state.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:16 pm
by Brent
End of the Euro was sure interesting down on the coast
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:33 pm
by Cpv17
Brent wrote:End of the Euro was sure interesting down on the coast
Watch tonight’s 0z run be back to showing nothing lol
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 10:14 pm
by bubba hotep
Go! Go! Go!
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Mon Aug 27, 2018 11:20 pm
by Cpv17
What in the world is up with the NAM?
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:01 am
by Brent
first legit cold front around September 10th on the 0z GFS(and roughly the same as the 18z)... bring it on
maybe some highs in the 70s?
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 12:05 am
by Haris
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 1:38 pm
by weatherdude1108
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 3:08 pm
by weatherdude1108
000
FXUS64 KEWX 281947
AFDEWX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
247 PM CDT Tue Aug 28 2018
.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Wednesday Night)...
Hot conditions continue across South Central Texas this afternoon.
Better moisture is confined across the far eastern CWA. HRRR
depicting isolated convection developing through the late afternoon
into portions of Lavaca, Fayette, Lee, and Bastrop counties before
dissipating around sunset.
A weak inverted mid level trough, beneath the ridge to the northeast,
will move inland through the eastern half of the CWA on Wednesday.
Deeper moisture values are progged to reach as far inland as the I-35
corridor, with precipitable water values progged near 1.8-2.0 inches.
This should allow for convection to develop during the afternoon
through sunset across central and eastern areas of the CWA. Coverage
should overall remain isolated given weak nature of the mid level
forcing and sea-breeze.
&&
.LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)...
A flat ridge will become established Thursday through Saturday near
and north of the CWA. Models linger moisture and low chances for
isolated afternoon convection across mainly far eastern areas of the
CWA during this time. Otherwise warm temperatures continue to be
above normals.
Models continue to indicate slightly better chances for rainfall
early next week as a deeper fetch of moisture and inverted mid level
from the Gulf of Mexico move west, beneath the ridge to the north of
northeast. There is still some uncertainty on exact placement of the
ridge and thus uncertainty with westward extent inland this moisture
reaches, so at this time will continue to keep PoPs in 20-30% range.
Temperatures do appear to trend slightly cooler.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:18 pm
by Haris
Ecm has a strong tropical storm in central gulf .
Ecm ens have a 60% chance for TD !!
Folks , the gulf has a healthy chance of becoming interesting pretty soon ! Interesting times ahead
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:21 pm
by Ntxw
Haris wrote:Ecm has a strong tropical storm in central gulf .
Ecm ens have a 60% chance for TD !!
Folks , the gulf has a healthy chance of becoming interesting pretty soon ! Interesting times ahead
Like clockwork! Almost guarantees a late Sept heatwave
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 4:44 pm
by Cpv17
I’m really surprised by the qpf forecast in my area. For the next 7 days we have a 40-60% chance of rain and we’re only in the one inch zone.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 5:32 pm
by weatherdude1108
Ntxw wrote:Haris wrote:Ecm has a strong tropical storm in central gulf .
Ecm ens have a 60% chance for TD !!
Folks , the gulf has a healthy chance of becoming interesting pretty soon ! Interesting times ahead
Like clockwork! Almost guarantees a late Sept heatwave
Our heatwave down here can't get much worse than it has been already.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:38 pm
by starsfan65
Ntxw wrote:Haris wrote:Ecm has a strong tropical storm in central gulf .
Ecm ens have a 60% chance for TD !!
Folks , the gulf has a healthy chance of becoming interesting pretty soon ! Interesting times ahead
Like clockwork! Almost guarantees a late Sept heatwave
heatwave? in late September?
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:49 pm
by Cpv17
18z GFS with either a wave or weak depression into Texas.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 6:50 pm
by starsfan65
Cpv17 wrote:18z GFS with either a wave or weak depression into Texas.
We need some more rain in DFW.
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:10 pm
by Brent
starsfan65 wrote:Ntxw wrote:Haris wrote:Ecm has a strong tropical storm in central gulf .
Ecm ens have a 60% chance for TD !!
Folks , the gulf has a healthy chance of becoming interesting pretty soon ! Interesting times ahead
Like clockwork! Almost guarantees a late Sept heatwave
heatwave? in late September?
Harvey/Irma did that last year seems like Gulf storms have a downside
Re: Texas Summer 2018
Posted: Tue Aug 28, 2018 7:23 pm
by starsfan65
Brent wrote:starsfan65 wrote:Ntxw wrote:Like clockwork! Almost guarantees a late Sept heatwave
heatwave? in late September?
Irma did that last year seems like Gulf storms have a downside
We had Harvey last year.
