Texas Fall 2013

[orangeblood]

Will that cold cold make it to the coast in that run?

Yes it did, an airmass of that magnitude will make it to the coast in some fashion but still too early to tell where the core of the cold will end up. Will it be directly down the front range of the Rockies into Texas or be pulled off to the midwest ? Should have a much better idea in a couple of days

[JGrin87]

Well I got to see some sleet and snow today along with this rain we've all had. I have heard on the news that downtown Houston also received some snowflakes. Any information on that?

I can confirm. I work on Louisiana St. and saw them flying around. Also went downstairs and verified.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yeah it almost looks like the polar vortex is sitting in the plains. That would be nuts. Well, we got something to look forward to and to speculate about. Would like to see the analogs for that monster

[Ntxw]

Portastorm, I think it's time we migrate to the winter thread and begin locking this one. Nothing weather wise will occur between now and Dec 1st so we should be posting DJF weather in the winter thread, the coming arctic barrage will be December so lets go begin winter of 2013-2014 over there

[aggiecutter]

Will that cold cold make it to the coast in that run?

Looking at the latest runs of the models, it looks to me like the front will become stationary just north of Austin. It'll probably be 25 and snowing in Round Rock and 65 and raining in SW Austin.

The above post and any post by aggiecutter is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster.

[BigB0882]

Will that cold cold make it to the coast in that run?

Looking at the latest runs of the models, it looks to me like the front will become stationary just north of Austin. It'll probably be 25 and snowing in Round Rock and 65 and raining in SW Austin.

The above post and any post by aggiecutter is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster.

LOL! Well, the good news is it is a long way out so I seriously doubt they have those details right at this point. May that front blow completely through to Mexico!

[JGrin87]

Will that cold cold make it to the coast in that run?

Looking at the latest runs of the models, it looks to me like the front will become stationary just north of Austin. It'll probably be 25 and snowing in Round Rock and 65 and raining in SW Austin.

The above post and any post by aggiecutter is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster.

Why aren't you on Orangebloods anymore?

[aggiecutter]

Will that cold cold make it to the coast in that run?

Looking at the latest runs of the models, it looks to me like the front will become stationary just north of Austin. It'll probably be 25 and snowing in Round Rock and 65 and raining in SW Austin.

The above post and any post by aggiecutter is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster.

Why aren't you on Orangebloods anymore?

I'm on Hookem247 and have been for the last year.

[Portastorm]

Portastorm, I think it's time we migrate to the winter thread and begin locking this one. Nothing weather wise will occur between now and Dec 1st so we should be posting DJF weather in the winter thread, the coming arctic barrage will be December so lets go begin winter of 2013-2014 over there

I'm not sure if you saw my note from earlier this week, but I wanted to wait through this holiday weekend and then close it. Folks can post in both threads for the next few days -- and it appears they already have -- but to avoid confusion from my earlier note, I'll going to stand pat.

[Portastorm]

Will that cold cold make it to the coast in that run?

Looking at the latest runs of the models, it looks to me like the front will become stationary just north of Austin. It'll probably be 25 and snowing in Round Rock and 65 and raining in SW Austin.

The above post and any post by aggiecutter is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster.

Fine by me, buddy. I love the rain. Bring it! You can have the ice storm.

[Portastorm]

SPECIAL MODERATOR NOTICE

We appreciate everyone keeping their comments/posts about this current weather event in the Texas Fall thread, despite the nature of the weather being (for us in Texas, at least) wintery! So let's do this ... after we conclude this current week and Thanksgiving holiday weekend, we'll move it on over to the Texas Winter 2013 thread. And it appears some have already done that!

Thanks everyone.

Here is a link to the Texas Winter thread:
http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=22&t=114950&start=240

[Ntxw]

Check your pm Ports

[orangeblood]

Well it appears the dominate teleconnection/oscillation pattern over North America will continue to be the EPO the next couple of weeks. Just look at the off the chart negative EPO forecast by the GEFS, this will continue to feed Arctic Air into the pattern reinforcing the bitterly cold shot into the plains next week.

[Texas Snowman]

Joe B tweets a moment ago that major cold is coming 12/5 to 12/15.

[Texas Snowman]

He adds:

"@BigJoeBastardi: http://t.co/iyB2JWoY7i pointing out for over 10 days now, how this looks a bit like Dec 1983, tho not as extreme. GFS 12z going to it."

and

"@BigJoeBastardi: GFS run will probably send people scurrying"

[Texas Snowman]

And this...

"@BigJoeBastardi: GFS has temps close to 40 below normal in northern plains now morning Dec 8 huge area almost all US 8 or more below normal"

[Texas Snowman]

Fort Worth NWS isn't buying it just yet (of course they WERE buying a major winter storm a few days ago ).

From the morning discussion:

"GUIDANCE IS THEN INCONSISTENT WITH THE HANDLING
OF THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...BUT THE 00Z GFS
SOLUTION IS ONE THAT WOULD FAVOR ANOTHER EARLY SEASON ARCTIC
INTRUSION JUST BEYOND THE CURRENT FORECAST CYCLE. THE ECMWF KEEPS
THE TROUGH CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN CONUS. THIS WOULD STILL SEND
IN A STRONG FRONT TO NORTH TEXAS...BUT THE COLDER ARCTIC AIR WOULD
BE SHUNTED EAST...DUE TO STRONG WESTERLIES IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS."

[Portastorm]

JB's partner Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) has been tweeting in the last hour about how the 12z GFS op run has gone very cold and he is curious to see how the 12z Euro shapes up. The GFS did have this cold around 12/6-12/7 but seems to have backed off the last 6-8 cycle runs ... maybe it's coming back to that scenario. The Euro, however, has been consistent and bullish on the event.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

It looks like the extreme brutal cold, much of it is drained over the Pacific. Doesnt look like the whole sha-bang comes down. After the big high comes down though it looks like a full latitude trough covers 3/4 of the US

[orangeblood]

It looks like the extreme brutal cold, much of it is drained over the Pacific. Doesnt look like the whole sha-bang comes down. After the big high comes down though it looks like a full latitude trough covers 3/4 of the US

At this time, This is why December 1983 is too extreme for this event, IMO. BUT if the negative EPO continues, funneling Arctic Air down into North America and the PNA pops positive then watch out, the whole thing could come crashing down into much of the country. Right now it should gradually drain south and southeast as we progress into late next week