Tornado Outbreak - Southeast, January 10-11

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0052
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0525 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...AL...NW GA

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 17...

VALID 102325Z - 110100Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 17 CONTINUES.

A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
EWD ACROSS ERN AL AND NW GA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS
EVENING. TORNADOES AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE
INTENSE STORMS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWD FROM WRN TN
INTO NW MS WITH A MOIST AXIS WITH 60 TO 65 DEGREE SFC DEWPOINTS
EXTENDING FROM SRN MS NNEWD ACROSS AL INTO FAR SRN MIDDLE TN. A 50
TO 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS LOCATED FROM MIDDLE TN SWD INTO AL. THE
LATEST WSR-88D VWP OUT OF BIRMINGHAM AL IS SAMPLING THE LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR WELL WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CURVED HODOGRAPH AND 0-1 KM SHEAR
ABOVE 30 KT. EVEN THOUGH SBCAPE VALUES ARE RELATIVELY WEAK...THE
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND IDEAL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS EMBEDDED IN THE LINE WITH TORNADOES. THE
STRONG FLOW SHOULD ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR WIND DAMAGE WITH THE BETTER
ORGANIZED BOWING SEGMENTS WITHIN THE LINE.

..BROYLES.. 01/10/2008


ATTN...WFO...MRX...OHX...BMX...HUN...MOB...MEG...JAN...LIX...

36628675 36578711 35878768 34288834 32558923 30959020
30319112 29139102 28969072 29008991 28928963 28888936
29228873 29808793 30878698 32848653 34988592 36378526

[MississippiHurricane]

http://www.flickr.com/photos/10211231@N05/

Here are the pics I took today......some came out better then others

[RL3AO]

Keep your eye out on that cell near Mobile.

[CrazyC83]

Keep your eye out on that cell near Mobile.

I agree, the southern area is pretty untouched and could be where evening supercells could form, just like on March 1 last year.

[CrazyC83]

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0053
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0629 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

AREAS AFFECTED...NRN GA...ERN TN...FAR WRN NC...SERN KY...FAR WRN VA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 110029Z - 110130Z

ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MOVES EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS
BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING.

THE LINE OF STORMS IS CURRENTLY ORIENTED FROM SSW TO NNE ALONG THE
ERN EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
50S AND LOWER 60S F. THE LINE IS BEING SUPPORTED BY STRONG
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IN SOUTHWEST FLOW AND THE RUC CURRENTLY INDICATES
A VORTICITY MAX IS MOVING NEWD ACROSS NCNTRL AL. AS THIS FEATURE
APPROACHES...LIFT MAY BECOME ENHANCED WHICH WOULD HELP SUSTAIN THE
LINE EWD ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIAN MTNS. IN ADDITION...A 70 TO 80
KT JET NEAR 700 MB IS LOCATED ACROSS MIDDLE TN. THIS FEATURE WILL
HELP FLOW TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIANS AND THIS MAY SUSTAIN THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL IN NRN GA. THE SEVERE THREAT SHOULD DECREASE
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE LINE MOVES INTO WEAKER INSTABILITY AND THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BECOMES ELEVATED.

..BROYLES.. 01/11/2008


ATTN...WFO...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...BMX...

35148340 34118404 34178545 35668536 36568405 37628328
37768277 37698239 37438218 36858220 36238273 35708314

[Bunkertor]

Can you reach the nws ?

Think until Sunday we´ll go up to 80 Reports for January. Maybe this year can tie records.

Looking at the past years season starts earlier with each year..

[CrazyC83]

SPC AC 110054

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0654 PM CST THU JAN 10 2008

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN LA NEWD TO PORTIONS WRN GA
AND ERN FL PANHANDLE...INCLUDING SRN/ERN AL...

...SYNOPSIS...
MOST IMPORTANT UPPER AIR FEATURE CONTINUES TO BE STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH -- NOW EVIDENT IN MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY FROM UPPER MS
VALLEY SSWWD ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NE TX...WITH EMBEDDED LOW OVER NWRN
IL. EXPECT THIS LOW TO MOVE NEWD TOWARD LM AND LOWER MI THROUGH
REMAINDER PERIOD. MEANWHILE...SFC CYCLONE OVER CENTRAL IL LIKEWISE
WILL MOVE NEWD TOWARD LOWER MI. TRAILING COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED
ALONG THETA GRADIENT SWWD ACROSS NWRN LA AND SE TX...PRECEDED BY
PSEUDO-FRONTAL DRYLINE OVER WRN TN...WRN MS AND CENTRAL LA. PRIMARY
BAND OF CONVECTION HAS MOVED AHEAD OF BOTH OF THESE BOUNDARIES AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO. FARTHER E...WELL-DEFINED DAMMING FRONT IS
ANALYZED IN ARC FROM NWRN GA ACROSS N-CENTRAL/NERN GA...CENTRAL
SC...S-CENTRAL THROUGH NERN NC. THIS FRONT MAY PIVOT NWD SOMEWHAT
OVER CENTRAL/ERN NC BUT SHOULD REMAIN QUASISTATIONARY
ELSEWHERE...BEFORE BEING OVERTAKEN BY CONVECTIVE BAND.

...CENTRAL GULF COAST TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
BAND OF NUMEROUS TSTMS -- SOME SEVERE WITH SUPERCELLULAR OR BOW/LEWP
STRUCTURES -- IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD INTO SRN
APPALACHIANS...INTO PORTIONS NRN/WRN GA AND FL PANHANDLE...AND
ACROSS REMAINDER MS...SERN LA AND AL. DAMAGING WIND...OCCASIONAL
HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES REMAIN LIKELY WITH TSTMS EMBEDDED IN THIS
BAND...ESPECIALLY FROM CENTRAL/ERN AL SWD. ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OF RELATIVELY DISCRETE CONVECTION -- INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS WITH
TORNADO POTENTIAL -- ALSO IS POSSIBLE.

REF SPC WWS 18 AND 19...AS WELL AS ACCOMPANYING MESOSCALE
DISCUSSIONS...FOR LATEST NEAR-TERM FCST REASONING BEYOND 01Z.

OTHERWISE...OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH GRADUALLY
THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD...BUT SHOULD PERSIST LONGEST ACROSS GULF
COASTAL PLAIN OF CENTRAL/SRN AL...FL PANHANDLE AND PERHAPS SWRN GA.
IR CLOUD TOP WARMING ALREADY EVIDENT ATTM FROM CENTRAL AL
NNEWD...ALONG WITH GEN DECREASE IN CG LIGHTNING DETECTED...AS
ACTIVITY MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS AWAY FROM GULF COASTAL
PLAIN.

FARTHER S...MOIST ADVECTION IN AND ADJACENT TO 45-55 KT LLJ SHOULD
RESULT IN INCREASING SFC DEW POINTS IN INFLOW-SECTOR AIR THROUGH
REMAINDER EVENING...SUPPORTING MAINTENANCE OF SFC-BASED EFFECTIVE
INFLOW PARCELS. WHILE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE WITH NWD EXTENT
INTO MORE STABLE AIR MASS...SHEAR STILL SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT INVOF
GULF COAST TO SUPPORT SVR THREAT. TSTMS MOVING INTO RELATIVELY
COLD/STABLE AIR ACROSS EXTREME ERN TN...WRN NC...ERN KY...NRN GA AND
WRN SC SHOULD WEAKEN GRADUALLY BUT STILL MAY POSE WIND HAZARD.

...CENTRAL/ERN PORTIONS TN/KY -- BEHIND INITIAL CONVECTION...
STG GUSTS OR HAIL NEAR SVR LEVELS CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH LINEAR
CONVECTION DEVELOPING CLOSER TO COLD FRONT...OVER MID TN AND
PORTIONS CENTRAL KY. HOWEVER...STABILIZING EFFECTS OF EARLIER
ACTIVITY SHOULD LIMIT ORGANIZED SVR POTENTIAL.

..EDWARDS.. 01/11/2008

CLICK TO GET WUUS01 PTSDY1 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 0104Z (8:04PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

[Bunkertor]

*** 3 INJ *** DAIRY BARN HEAVILY DAMAGED,3 PEOPLE INJ, ONE HOME DESTROYED. 300 COWS WERE DAMAGED WITH 10 DEAD. (JAN)

[Brent]

Pictures from Caledonia, looks like a very severe tornado. Lucky it wasn't worse in terms of injuries or deaths(very lucky)

http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/?p=4909

[RL3AO]

Put a bus in a wind tunnel and see what it takes to flip it over and then you will have your rating.

[CrazyC83]

I'd estimate EF3 for Caledonia...

[Hurricaneman]

*** 3 INJ *** DAIRY BARN HEAVILY DAMAGED,3 PEOPLE INJ, ONE HOME DESTROYED. 300 COWS WERE DAMAGED WITH 10 DEAD. (JAN)

in a serious situation like this, that is one funny typo because cows are living things, not a house or car or tree

[CrazyC83]

Looking at the EF scale, for a completely destroyed elementary school (if that is what they meant):

Lower bound - 152 mph (EF3)

Expected - 176 mph (EF4)

Upper bound - 203 mph (EF5)

Since it is probable they were exaggerating a bit, the next level - collapse of load bearing walls - has the following:

Lower bound - 130 mph (EF2)

Expected - 153 mph (EF3)

Upper bound - 180 mph (EF4)

[Brent]

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT...CORRECTED EXPIRATION TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
132 PM CST FRI JAN 11 2008

...DAMAGE SURVEYS ONGOING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL...

NWS SURVEY CREWS CONTINUE TO EXAMINE STORM DAMAGE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL ALABAMA IN LAMAR...TUSCALOOSA...AND PICKENS COUNTIES.

THE CREW IN TUSCALOOSA COUNTY HAS COMPLETED THE SURVEY OF THE DAMAGE
IN THE WINDHAM SPRINGS AND WILEY AREA...AND HAS CONFIRMED THAT IT IS
TORNADO DAMAGE. THE TORNADO HAS BEEN RATED AS AN EF3 TORNADO ON THE
ENHANCED FUJITA SCALE...WITH ESTIMATED WINDS OF 140 TO 150 MILES PER
HOUR. THE TORNADO PATH LENGTH IS 4.89 MILES LONG...AND WAS 350 YARDS
WIDE AT IT`S WIDEST POINT. FIVE STRUCTURES WERE COMPLETELY
DESTROYED...AND APPROXIMATELY 300 TREES WERE DOWNED ALONG THE PATH.

SURVEY TEAMS HAVE ALSO CONFIRMED TORNADO TOUCHDOWNS IN LAMAR AND
PICKENS COUNTIES. THUS FAR...THE WORST DAMAGE FOUND IN LAMAR COUNTY
HAS BEEN RATED AN EF2...AND THE PICKENS COUNTY TORNADO HAS BEEN
GIVEN AN ESTIMATED RATING OF EF1. COMPLETE DETAILS ON THESE TWO
STORMS WILL FOLLOW HAS IT BECOMES AVAILABLE.

WE WILL CONTINUE TO UPDATE THIS PRODUCT AS MORE INFORMATION BECOMES
AVAILABLE.

IF THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS...PLEASE CONTACT THE LEAD FORECASTER AT
THE BIRMINGHAM NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE AT 205-664-3010.

[HarlequinBoy]

Holmes County, MS tornado given EF3.
Simpson County, MS tornado given EF1.
Smith/Rankin County, MS tornado given EF0.

Several more surveys have to be conducted.

[Crostorm]

Pictures from Caledonia, looks like a very severe tornado. Lucky it wasn't worse in terms of injuries or deaths(very lucky)

http://www.jamesspann.com/wordpress/?p=4909

Here is video on youtube

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kiz_U2sf ... t_locale=1

[HarlequinBoy]

Wow, thanks for the link.

[CrazyC83]

So far, at least 55 tornadoes confirmed for the week, including eight EF3's.

[Squarethecircle]

There have been more severe outbreaks in January, but I would like to know, when was the last time 55 actual tornadoes have been recorded in an outbreak (in January, of course)?

[Coredesat]

What is the record for most confirmed tornadoes in January?