Texas Spring 2025

[wxman22]

The NAM and WRF models are onboard with a transition to snow in NW Texas Saturday night. OUN is watching for the potential of a deformation band setting up as several models are showing. They also stated that temps of the boundary layer 1-2 degrees in either direction will make the difference between getting just a cold rain or transitioning to a wet potentially moderate to heavy snow.

[TropicalTundra]

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250307/725f6e09e205e0ab487494d2d21263ad.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250307/b6dcb39914c14b281998231163794d53.jpg
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20250307/11adfd13b2cf9f5c78b1f67829c43adc.jpg

And the air above will be decently freezing even close to the surface so a transition to snow in high 30s seems plausible. Or maybe I'm just being optimistic.

[cstrunk]

Looks like there may be a few strong/severe storms early tomorrow morning and again possibly in the afternoon in N/NE TX.

[snownado]

Looks like there may be a few strong/severe storms early tomorrow morning and again possibly in the afternoon in N/NE TX.

Mostly a hail threat, but yes...

[wxman22]

Both 0z WRF models

[wxman22]

Severe thunderstorm warnings issued in north Texas for hail. I've already picked up over 1 inch of rain and the rain is just getting started. Interesting day ahead up here, as we *may* transition from moderate rain to moderate to heavy snow tonight. As a deformation band/trowel develops on the backside of the low in the cold core.

[snownado]

There hasn't been much to write home about here.

If there was any thunder / lightning and heavy downpours, I didn't hear it as I slept right through it.

Meanwhile, DFW did get up to 82*F yesterday. Skies were pretty smoky for the first half of the day and although it relented some as the day progressed, it still made for a nice sunseg.

[TomballEd]

Latest SWODY 1 has Houston in the MARGINAL RISK. Some storms on radar. MCD below (not a changing hotlink).

[wxman22]

[WacoWx]

I can’t wait to see what Amarillo has on the ground in the morning. Radars been solid for hours up that way.

[Brent]

I can’t wait to see what Amarillo has on the ground in the morning. Radars been solid for hours up that way.

Looks like about 4 inches officially

To think last time we changed the clocks we had nighttime tornadoes

[wxman22]

No snow here but received almost 2 inches of much needed rain so I'm happy lol.

Another windstorm and wildfire threat this Friday. Keep in mind these are in knots. So the winds are even stronger when converted to mph. Look at that cyclone!

[snownado]

No snow here but received almost 2 inches of much needed rain so I'm happy lol.

Another windstorm and wildfire threat this Friday. Keep in mind these are in knots. So the winds are even stronger when converted to mph. Look at that cyclone!


https://i.ibb.co/nNvKJjGw/ecmwf-gust-texas-144.png

https://i.ibb.co/0yrSZ9GY/sfcwind-mslp-conus-1.png

The initial severe weather threat, however, should be much less due to a much slower return of moisture (capping).

[wxman22]

[wxman22]

No snow here but received almost 2 inches of much needed rain so I'm happy lol.

Another windstorm and wildfire threat this Friday. Keep in mind these are in knots. So the winds are even stronger when converted to mph. Look at that cyclone!


https://i.ibb.co/nNvKJjGw/ecmwf-gust-texas-144.png

https://i.ibb.co/0yrSZ9GY/sfcwind-mslp-conus-1.png

The initial severe weathet threat, however, should be much less due to a much slower return of moisture (capping).

Yes, due to a weaker system that will move into the state on Wednesday which will help to remove the moisture available and shunt the return flow.

[gpsnowman]

No B.S. Either light snow or graupel is falling here in GP. In my backyard watching it now.

[cycloneye]

Off Topic= Stopped here to let the Texas folks know that the 2025 Storm2k hurricane season numbers poll has opened for the members to participate.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 7#p3122307

[HockeyTx82]

https://www.fox4news.com/news/mystery-s ... reds-miles

Consider it a gift as Texas Dust is sacred. It's the equivalent of Moon Dust!

[snownado]

I've notice that a few of the trees are starting to leaf out.

[TomballEd]

https://i.ibb.co/r2wYbfYr/image-2025-03-09-105028540.png

Dust storm and extremely critical fire weather still on the table.

From Lubbock NWS

The high wind potential for Friday still remains on track and
continues to increase in confidence this morning as models continue
to project an amplified low tracking through the region. By late
Thursday night we will begin to see the upper level trough move in
from the desert southwest, with the +110kt jet streak creeping into
portions of the Big Bend Country. Both deterministic and ensembles
project this upper level trough and associated strong jet streak to
set up right over the FA by Friday afternoon in addition to the
deepening surface low passing to our north, increasing the potential
for strong wind speeds across the region. Currently, wind speeds
reflected by the NBM continue to reflect High Wind Warning criteria
with wind speeds up to 40 to 45 mph being output and gusts to 60
mph. Given the run to run similarities over the past few days,
continuing with the same High Wind Warning solution, confidence
continues to grow in the likelihood of this event. Currently NBM
probabilities depict a 75% probability of exceedance of High Wind
Warning thresholds by Friday afternoon for areas across the Caprock
and about a 50% probability of exceedance for areas off the
Caprock. With these higher wind speeds and critically dry
conditions, areas of blowing dust will also be likely which may lead
to poor air quality and low visibilities at time.