STORM2K

Looks like DFW is more borderline for tomorrow with the risk further northeast, at least for me in Tarrant.

rwfromkansas wrote:Looks like DFW is more borderline for tomorrow with the risk further northeast, at least for me in Tarrant.

Anecdotally we have been in a cycle where severe/tornado outbreaks in the Ohio Valley during December, and Central Texas late March-April timeframe. Right now it is cold front driven rather than dry-line and warm front centric. Missouri/Ark might get something though.

The 12z models don't look as marginal as the 00z models did for DFW severe potential.

Very sensitve setup.

DallasAg wrote:

Yukon Cornelius wrote:Heading back to CO tomorrow morning. Looks like a major winter storm on tap for up here. Our watch has been issued for 11-28”. Looks to be a true “Albuquerque Low” which almost always produces heavy snow.

Looks like the front range should cash in with this one. We got a surprise 4" overnight in CB. The main show wasn't supposed to start until later today, so hopefully this is a sign that the storm will over produce for many.

Models are ramping up now. I'm just west of Denver near Applewood, like 1.5 miles from the foothills and I'm not surprised if I get 30".

Welp we now have a severe warned cell near Tulsa, not a fan of that track if it ends up fully maturing

Also super impressive supercell in KS a little while ago

snownado wrote:The 12z models don't look as marginal as the 00z models did for DFW severe potential.

Very sensitve setup.

Looks like most activity will be just east Dallas co to east of the DFW metroplex. Doesn't appear that Tarrant county will get much, not even rain.

Optimistic that Friday stretching into the weekend continues to be our window here across S Central Texas for some beneficial rainfall. Models have really ramped up totals over the last few runs. Great news for much of the region. Bring it on.

I just got a "Loaded Gun" Sounding


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/SUj0P.png

Supercharged La Nina may be coming. The strongest on the ONI record is 1973-1974. The extratropical waters (PDO, AMO) are well set up to boost it. As we have seen with the 2021 and 2022 Nina events, the overall warmer global oceans is making La Nina influence more prevalent. Those were weak-moderate events but acted more like strong events with the atmospheric response.

Man, the last few runs of the HRRR look pretty nasty for a pretty big area of NE TX and SE OK. Lots of individual cells/supercells this afternoon/evening.

Ntxw wrote:Supercharged La Nina may be coming. The strongest on the ONI record is 1973-1974. The extratropical waters (PDO, AMO) are well set up to boost it. As we have seen with the 2021 and 2022 Nina events, the overall warmer global oceans is making La Nina influence more prevalent. Those were weak-moderate events but acted more like strong events with the atmospheric response.

Definitely not looking forward to that. Sounds like a repeat of the 2011 drought coming.

Cpv17 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Supercharged La Nina may be coming. The strongest on the ONI record is 1973-1974. The extratropical waters (PDO, AMO) are well set up to boost it. As we have seen with the 2021 and 2022 Nina events, the overall warmer global oceans is making La Nina influence more prevalent. Those were weak-moderate events but acted more like strong events with the atmospheric response.

Definitely not looking forward to that. Sounds like a repeat of the 2011 drought coming.

Odds are higher next summer than this one. The first year Ninas have more variability but the second year ones are rough.

Cpv17 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Supercharged La Nina may be coming. The strongest on the ONI record is 1973-1974. The extratropical waters (PDO, AMO) are well set up to boost it. As we have seen with the 2021 and 2022 Nina events, the overall warmer global oceans is making La Nina influence more prevalent. Those were weak-moderate events but acted more like strong events with the atmospheric response.

Definitely not looking forward to that. Sounds like a repeat of the 2011 drought coming.

Timing is everything, and I know the world is a lot different than it was 50 years ago, but looking at DFW annual precip in that timeframe it's interesting that the La Nina years were wetter than the years on either side of it:

1972 - 22.23"
1973 - 50.62" (including 11.13" in July!)
1974 - 39.63"
1975 - 29.10"

Well I'm technically in a watch now although it's already past me lol. But that still counts as the first tornado watch of the year! Spring is here

Slighy SW shift for the 1130AM SPC update for the enhanced area.

Looks mainly for hail. 380 North and NNE.

HRRR looks interesting, be curious how this all plays out.

Here we go.......

Ntxw wrote:

Cpv17 wrote:

Ntxw wrote:Supercharged La Nina may be coming. The strongest on the ONI record is 1973-1974. The extratropical waters (PDO, AMO) are well set up to boost it. As we have seen with the 2021 and 2022 Nina events, the overall warmer global oceans is making La Nina influence more prevalent. Those were weak-moderate events but acted more like strong events with the atmospheric response.

Definitely not looking forward to that. Sounds like a repeat of the 2011 drought coming.

Odds are higher next summer than this one. The first year Ninas have more variability but the second year ones are rough.

2010 would probably be a better analog than 2011 for this year.

Granted, that wasn't exactly a cool/wet Summer, but (for Texas) it wasn't nearly as bad as 2011 either.

How is the cap holding up over DFW? We gonna get any action or is it gonna blow up east?

Haddox12 wrote:How is the cap holding up over DFW? We gonna get any action or is it gonna blow up east?

Some storms will roll through with the front overnight. I wouldn't worry too much about the storm language. None of this is out of the ordinary.

Ntxw wrote:

Haddox12 wrote:How is the cap holding up over DFW? We gonna get any action or is it gonna blow up east?

Some storms will roll through with the front overnight. I wouldn't worry too much about the storm language. None of this is out of the ordinary.

Define ordinary? Haha.... after this lack of Winter and no snow my kids are complaining. I'm not sure what to expect anymore.

ElectricStorm wrote:Well I'm technically in a watch now although it's already past me lol. But that still counts as the first tornado watch of the year! Spring is here

I had the storm action this morning, the skies were creepy green when I was in town.