Texas Spring 2021

[Yukon Cornelius]

We’re in whiteout conditions now. The railing was scraped off 30 min ago. They’re saying an additional 11” or so on the way.

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[InfernoFlameCat]

Well winter does not want to relinquish where you are. It peaked at 78 here. Best of luck.

[bubba hotep]

Trapped here another day by road closures. Now under a blizzard warning!



No clue how much snow we have had but the park has both wind blown bare grown and 4 foot deep drifts.

[Iceresistance]

18z NAM is calling for LOTS of severe weather in the Southern Plains Next Tuesday, Crazy soundings from NE Oklahoma down all the way to Houston, TX . . .

Pawnee, OK


Tecumseh, OK


DFW


Lufkin, TX

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Glad you guys in CO are safe. Yeah, those roads from Westcliffe to I 25 cant be fun in a snow storm. I havent done Trinidad/Raton in a winter storm yet, but i've heard horror stories.

[TheProfessor]

18z NAM is calling for LOTS of severe weather in the Southern Plains Next Tuesday, Crazy soundings from NE Oklahoma down all the way to Houston, TX . . .

Pawnee, OK
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031418_NAM_063_36.31-96.4_severe_ml.png

Tecumseh, OK
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031418_NAM_063_35.27-96.88_severe_ml.png

DFW
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031418_NAM_063_32.91-96.52_severe_ml.png

Lufkin, TX
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031418_NAM_063_31.41-94.63_severe_ml.png

There's some nasty veer-back-veer in the Oklahoma soundings in the lowest 3 kilometers. It's still early, but low level VBV can be a failure mode.

[Iceresistance]

Very broad Slight Risk across the Southern Plains today . . .

[InfernoFlameCat]

It is even more broad after the next update. No enhanced yet...

[Iceresistance]

Slight risk Expanded, now includes Texarkana . . .

DFW now under a Slight risk for tornadoes (5%)

[bubba hotep]

Slight risk Expanded, now includes Texarkana . . .

DFW now under a Slight risk for tornadoes (5%)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

Looks like there should be enough capping in place to keep things in check. Then storms look to be mostly be elevated and clustered along the front in the DFW area.

[cheezyWXguy]

Slight risk Expanded, now includes Texarkana . . .

DFW now under a Slight risk for tornadoes (5%)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

Looks like there should be enough capping in place to keep things in check. Then storms look to be mostly be elevated and clustered along the front in the DFW area.

Yeah definitely looks like a squall line, but I could see some spin ups being possible if the line is mature enough, given the srh values surface winds out of the sse depicted on the 12z NAM. Probably not likely but I think it justifies the 5% probabilities in the area

[Iceresistance]

Slight risk Expanded, now includes Texarkana . . .

DFW now under a Slight risk for tornadoes (5%)

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/day1probotlk_1300_torn.gif

Looks like there should be enough capping in place to keep things in check. Then storms look to be mostly be elevated and clustered along the front in the DFW area.

Yeah definitely looks like a squall line, but I could see some spin ups being possible if the line is mature enough, given the srh values surface winds out of the sse depicted on the 12z NAM. Probably not likely but I think it justifies the 5% probabilities in the area

And embedded Supercells . . .

[rwfromkansas]

Based on yesterday I thought it would be an overnight weakening skinny line again. Sounds bigger now.

The timing still sounds like overnight?

I’m confused what changed to allow the storms to stay stronger longer. Any idea?

[cstrunk]

HRRR shows isolated supercells in the far east TX/NW LA area late tonight in the WAA that the SPC mentioned.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Based on yesterday I thought it would be an overnight weakening skinny line again. Sounds bigger now.

The timing still sounds like overnight?

I’m confused what changed to allow the storms to stay stronger longer. Any idea?

The south East with that gulf air can really keep storms going. Unlike the plains the south east doesn't need the sun to create strong updrafts.

[Iceresistance]

HATCHED Hail zone in Oklahoma, & parts of Panhandle & Northern Texas . . .

[Iceresistance]

12z NAM DFW Sounding at +21 hours

[bubba hotep]

12z NAM DFW Sounding at +21 hours

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031612_NAM_021_33.3-97.15_severe_ml.png

Area avg. sounding for HR20 shows CAPE of 2,000+ for DFW, with a stout cap still in place. Also, that sounding above might be contaminated, since the area avg sounding shows a larger cap and drier mid-levels. With that said, the 12z HREF does show some decent updrafts moving across DFW late tonight.

[bubba hotep]

Winter Storm Watch up for the Panhandle with Blizzard Warnings for SE CO.

[bubba hotep]

12z NAM DFW Sounding at +21 hours

https://s4.gifyu.com/images/2021031612_NAM_021_33.3-97.15_severe_ml.png

Area avg. sounding for HR20 shows CAPE of 2,000+ for DFW, with a stout cap still in place. Also, that sounding above might be contaminated, since the area avg sounding shows a larger cap and drier mid-levels. With that said, the 12z HREF does show some decent updrafts moving across DFW late tonight.

Using modeled qpf as a proxy, basically all the hi-res 12z guidance shows an increase in storm chances/intensity for DFW.