Texas Summer 2018

[CaptinCrunch]

Not a drop of rain yesterday at the house, storms died out fast over DTW FTW. The rain cooled wind was nice but damn, my yard needs some rain.

[bubba hotep]

Both ECMWF and GFS onboard with potential Hurricane Bud recurving into Mexico and fusing with a western trough and surging gulf moisture on the eastern flank of the hurricane (pulling rich moisture at the low levels from the western gulf north). Devil in details but continue to think a high precipitation event odds increasing.

The GFS continues to try and develop a Gulf system and that cuts off one of the moisture sources. The Euro EPS trended back wetter last night for Texas but still has a lot of dry members. There is a strong CCKW that is going to push through the EPAC and into the Atlantic and that should kickstart a 2nd EPAC system and spread favorable upper level conditions across Texas. The ingredients are certainly coming together but I'll be skeptical until we get inside of a week lol

[Ntxw]

I don't entirely buy a gulf system when there is a sprawling EPAC major. I think GFS is doing to much to the moisture surge. I like a western gulf moisture increase better

[Haris]

I don't entirely buy a gulf system when there is a sprawling EPAC major. I think GFS is doing to much to the moisture surge. I like a western gulf moisture increase better

So do you guys eye a more wetter pattern for TX ? Looks like a break in the ridge is coming

[Ntxw]

I don't entirely buy a gulf system when there is a sprawling EPAC major. I think GFS is doing to much to the moisture surge. I like a western gulf moisture increase better

So do you guys eye a more wetter pattern for TX ? Looks like a break in the ridge is coming

Bud and 500mb trough in the west is going to break down the ridge. Northern Mexico, New Mexico and West Texas will likely feel impacts of Bud's moisture plume. For the eastern half of the state there will be a surge of low level moisture from the western gulf that comes northward in tandem with Bud on the other side. Historically speaking this is an ideal set up for heavy rain across the state, so going by past set ups I would say so even if forecasts right now are not within range.

A gulf system if one forms (though I don't particularly buy into this) would change things a bit as it would scour away low level moisture from the eastern half of the state.

[Ralph's Weather]

Not a drop of rain yesterday at the house, storms died out fast over DTW FTW. The rain cooled wind was nice but damn, my yard needs some rain.

They died over my head in East Texas. Brought some gusty winds and dropped temps into the low 70s at least.

[weatherdude1108]

000
FXUS64 KEWX 081942
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
242 PM CDT Fri Jun 8 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
Upper level ridging across the region will act to keep the weather
generally status quo for the short term. The sea breeze off the Gulf
will generate some isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon and again tomorrow afternoon for the southeastern
counties of the coastal plains. High temperatures tomorrow will range
from the mid 90s to near 100 along the Rio Grande, and winds will
remain generally out of the southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Upper level ridging is expected to continue to hold through the long
term. Seabreeze showers/storms will become less likely after
Saturday, but have maintained 20% POPs across the very far southeast
for Sunday afternoon and again on Tuesday afternoon. There will be
very little change in the forecasted max and min temperatures from
Sunday through Friday. Temperatures will remain above normal, but
less so than earlier this week. Winds will remain out generally out
of the southeast. Morning stratus along the escarpment will give way
to partly cloudy skies for the rest of the day.

[Haris]

18z gfs coming in with a CAT 5 HITTING TX moving over AUSTIN !


LOCK IT IN!!!!!

Guys , just joking. I know what to and not to believe

[South Texas Storms]

12z GFS and Canadian both show a tropical system hitting TX in about 8-9 days. As long as it isn't too strong and doesn't stall, that sure would bring some beneficial rainfall to the state.

[Ntxw]

I hope we get a good surge of low level moisture and models are overdoing the Gulf side (particularly the GFS). We don't want another tropical cyclone to hit, for the obvious reasons, on top of the fact we'll get a prolonged dry spell after it as we always do when Atlantic systems strike us.

The El Nino pattern will likely set up by the end of June into July, I'd hate to see a storm mess that up and bring more heat behind it.

[Haris]

I hope we get a good surge of low level moisture and models are overdoing the Gulf side (particularly the GFS). We don't want another tropical cyclone to hit, for the obvious reasons, on top of the fact we'll get a prolonged dry spell after it as we always do when Atlantic systems strike us.

The El Nino pattern will likely set up by the end of June into July, I'd hate to see a storm mess that up and bring more heat behind it.

for the first time in 4 weeks, the GEFS show more than 1"

[Ntxw]

for the first time in 4 weeks, the GEFS show more than 1"

Yeah, in general I am thinking the guidance as well as the CPC will continue to nudge QPF upwards at the very least. Hurricane Bud should bring lots of moisture both from the Pacific and Atlantic side. Good flow.

[Haris]

HIGHS in the 70s and RAIN!!! YESS! EURO

[weatherdude1108]

HIGHS in the 70s and RAIN!!! YESS! EURO

OMGOSH, that would be a blessing, especially for the San Antonio area! They have been much drier than the Austin area in recent weeks. I noticed that when I visited my parents in SA during Memorial Day weekend. PLEASE PLEASE!!

[aperson]

Gust front just passed over downtown Austin with some nice 15-20mph winds and man does that temperature change feel fantastic.

[weatherdude1108]

Temp dropped in CP. No rain.

[Haris]

gfs man , gfs

[Cpv17]

gfs man , gfs

Crazy GFS!

[Ntxw]

It's been a long time since the equatorial Pacific has lit up like this (2015 Super Nino)! Fun times ahead down the road...

[weatherdude1108]

gfs man , gfs

Crazy GFS!

What is up with that 18Z run? We need the rain, but if that were to verify, we would have devastating flooding around here.